Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Iverson's effect on Philly

Expand Messages
  • HoopStudies
    I ve been meaning to get to this forever. Now that my computer is only flaking out 40% of the time, I m going to try to get the work out. In 2001-02, the
    Message 1 of 1 , Dec 23, 2001
    • 0 Attachment
      I've been meaning to get to this forever. Now that my computer is
      only flaking out 40% of the time, I'm going to try to get the work
      out.

      In 2001-02, the Sixers have seen a massive effect of losing Iverson,
      much greater than last year. Here are the numbers:

      . With Iverson Without Iverson
      Player OffRtg. DefRtg OffRtg. DefRtg Net Pts/G
      2001 102.1 96.1 99.4 99.8 6.4
      2002 98.2 95.5 91.2 101.8 13.3

      Both last year and this year's numbers suggest that Iverson helps
      both offensively and defensively. Clearly, Philly has had a lot of
      injury problems this year, though. Iverson's injuries have
      correlated particularly strongly with Eric Snow's and Aaron McKie's,
      so there are multiple impacts. So here is what we see for all
      significant players having missed time for Philly this year:

      . With Player Without Player
      Player OffRtg. DefRtg OffRtg. DefRtg Net Pts/G
      Iverson 98.2 95.5 91.2* 101.8* 13.3
      McKie 96.9 94.9 95 102.4* 9.4
      Snow 97.6 96.2 96 97.4 2.8
      Coleman 97 98.4 93.1 92.1 -2.4

      * indicates that the difference is statistically significant at 95%

      (Coleman is the big reason I started looking at these splits because
      he is well-known as the biggest jinx in basketball. Charlotte
      historically did much much better without him in the lineup than with
      him. The reasons were not well known. But the effect is carrying
      over only weakly to Philly.)

      One of the things I really want to get better at estimating is the
      net points per game contributed by individuals. The above numbers
      are confounded because of multiple people missing games at the same
      time and, more relevantly, they reflect the DIFFERENCE between a
      player and his backup. A better backup for Iverson would mean that
      Philly wouldn't suffer as much by losing him. People getting more
      time because of his absence include (everyone on the team, but most
      importantly) Raja Bell, Speedy Claxton, Corie Blount, and Aaron
      McKie. So if I had a good estimate of net points, I would be able to
      look at Iverson's time among these players and subtract the
      difference. It wouldn't be easy because you'd have to figure out
      exactly how Iverson's minutes got distributed, but it gets close.

      So where am I now? I have 2 different estimates of net points per
      game that I call so eloquently "version 1" and "version 2". Version
      1 reflects a player's relative offensive efficiency to his defensive
      efficiency. Version 2 reflects how many points a player produces
      relative to his defensive efficiency. Basically, 1 reflects
      efficiency and 2 reflects magnitude of points produced (through all
      sorts of means). I have taken to averaging the 2 estimates
      together. I used this earlier for last year's guys in message 144:

      http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/message/144

      Here is where I see the Sixers now using these #'s:

      . Net Pts/48M
      . v1 v2 Average
      Iverson, Allen -0.1 13.0 6.4
      Coleman, Derric 0.4 2.0 1.2
      McKie, Aaron 1.8 0.3 1.0
      Harpring, Matt 0.6 0.1 0.4
      Mutombo, Dikemb 1.3 -2.1 -0.4
      Snow, Eric 0.7 -1.8 -0.5
      Claxton, Speedy -0.2 -2.6 -1.4
      Bell, Raja -1.7 -5.1 -3.4
      Cummings, Vonte -2.2 -1.5 -1.8
      Bownam, Ira 4.0 -5.4 -0.7
      Blount, Corie -1.4 -8.6 -5.0
      James, Tim -4.8 -3.9 -4.4
      Ruffin, Michael -3.0 -9.7 -6.3
      Brown, Damone -7.7 -6.1 -6.9
      Geiger, Matt -6.8 -12.6 -9.7
      Dalembert, Samu -0.2 -2.7 -1.5
      Jones, Alvin -4.0 -19.2 -11.6

      Well, Iverson does have the best average and it is a lot better. If
      you subtract off Blount's -5.0 from 6.4, you even get close to the 13
      pt team difference seen between games with and without Iverson. Here
      are the minutes the Sixers have played throughout the season as well
      as my estimates of the number of net points total:

      Player G GS Min Net Pts
      Iverson, Allen 19 19 825 221
      Coleman, Derric 21 21 790 40
      McKie, Aaron 18 13 664 29
      Harpring, Matt 26 26 832 12
      Mutombo, Dikemb 26 26 956 -16
      Snow, Eric 5 5 169 -4
      Claxton, Speedy 19 10 541 -32
      Bell, Raja 26 4 418 -59
      Cummings, Vonte 22 1 263 -20
      Bownam, Ira 3 0 29 -1
      Blount, Corie 22 5 433 -90
      James, Tim 9 0 41 -7
      Ruffin, Michael 13 0 168 -44
      Brown, Damone 16 0 50 -14
      Geiger, Matt 4 0 36 -15
      Dalembert, Samu 7 0 16 -1
      Jones, Alvin 5 0 9 -4

      Qualitatively, there are a lot of Philly subs who hurt the team while
      Iverson was away. Now I'll actually look at the difference in
      minutes played in Iverson games vs. Iverson non-games:

      Player NetPts/48 NetMins Net Pts
      Bell, Raja -3.4 16.7 -1.2
      Blount, Corie -5.0 0.5 0.0
      Bownam, Ira -0.7 9.7 -0.1
      Brown, Damone -6.9 1.9 -0.3
      Claxton, Speedy -1.4 11.9 -0.4
      Coleman, Derric 1.2 1.3 0.0
      Cummings, Vonte -1.8 13.1 -0.5
      Dalembert, Samu -1.5 1.7 -0.1
      Geiger, Matt -9.7 9.0 -1.8
      Harpring, Matt 0.4 6.6 0.0
      Iverson, Allen 6.4 -43.4 -5.8
      James, Tim -4.4 1.2 -0.1
      Jones, Alvin -11.6 -1.8 0.4
      McKie, Aaron 1.0 4.6 0.1
      Mutombo, Dikemb -0.4 1.1 0.0
      Ruffin, Michael -6.3 7.8 -1.0
      Snow, Eric -0.5 -33.8 0.4
      Total -10.3

      In other words, Bell actually got 16.7 more minutes in non-Iverson
      games, Claxton got +13.1, etc. Snow didn't play in any non-Iverson
      games. The NetPts/48 is the average of my estimates from
      before. "Net Pts" is the other 2 columns multiplied together and
      divided by 48 to get an estimate of net pts gained/lost in games
      where Iverson did not play. Iverson not being in the lineup cost his
      team 5.8 pts in each game on its own. Raja Bell's minutes cost the
      Sixers 1.2 pts per game. Speedy Claxton cost his team 0.4 pts/game.
      Notice the total net is -10.3, which isn't terribly far off from the -
      13.3 we started with (not as good as I'd like it, but I didn't
      calculate rigorously).

      The point is that this is a work in progress, key word
      being "progress". I feel like I'm making some. I think this type of
      gross statistical analysis can lead to a cross-check of the number of
      net points players contribute to their teams. Clearly Iverson
      contributes positively to the Sixers despite the antipathy he causes
      in certain people and despite his scattered shot. Maybe it is about
      6 pts per 48 minutes. Maybe it's more. It seems unlikely that it
      will be less, but possible.

      Something to think about.

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
    Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.