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Re: Lebron and Melo.....Projection or Reality?

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  • nickouli5
    Where are you getting this PP possesion? I dont see it in the database you have on your website. Also is there anyway to navigate the Database easy and copy
    Message 1 of 7 , Mar 27, 2004
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      Where are you getting this PP possesion? I dont see it in the
      database you have on your website.

      Also is there anyway to navigate the Database easy and copy and
      paste the records for comaprisons outside the actual program?

      Thanks.

      Lastly, is performance rating per minute the most important stat
      that says how good the player is?
    • Mike G
      ... that ... I ve got Lebron about #40, with Wade and Anthony also in the top 50. I m perplexed why Wade isn t mentioned as one of the Big 3, rather than as
      Message 2 of 7 , Mar 28, 2004
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
        wrote:
        > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "nickouli5" <NikoTMP@g...>
        wrote:
        > > ... Is it just analysts
        > > PROJECTING Lebron and Carmelo's abilities? Or are they really
        that
        > > good RIGHT now?
        >
        > No, they're not in the top 20 yet.

        I've got Lebron about #40, with Wade and Anthony also in the top 50.

        I'm perplexed why Wade isn't mentioned as one of the Big 3, rather
        than as one of the rest.

        rookie. G Min Eff% Sco. Reb Ast Stl (TO) Blk - Total(total)
        L James 66 40 .481 19.9 5.6 5.7 1.5 (3.3) .8 - 30.2 (31.2)
        Dw Wade 49 35 .525 19.1 4.8 5.2 1.5 (3.4) .6 - 29.4 (28.4)
        Anthony 72 36 .504 21.4 6.3 3.1 1.2 (3.1) .5 - 28.8 (29.3)

        (The reason for the dual "total"s, is that the parenthesized one is
        a weighted sum of the categorical rates; while the primary figure is
        adjusted for team strength.)

        I realize Wade has missed games, and played fewer minutes. Also,
        his raw numbers do not match up favorably. What do the adjusted +/-
        numbers show? DanR?

        I've got James' 2004 in a dead heat with Moses Malone's 1975 season
        as the 2 best initial showings by rookies-out-of-high-school.
      • wimpds
        I think another factor is age. If Dwayne Wade was 19, I think he d be getting the same press. Lebron and Carmelo are arguably having the most valuable
        Message 3 of 7 , Mar 28, 2004
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          I think another factor is age. If Dwayne Wade was 19, I think he'd
          be getting the same press. Lebron and Carmelo are arguably having
          the most valuable seasons by 19 year olds. A few dozen guys have
          have had better seasons than Wade at the same age (by my rating, of
          course). I think there is little question that Lebron and Carmelo
          will both go on to have better careers than Wade.


          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
          > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
          > wrote:
          > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "nickouli5" <NikoTMP@g...>
          > wrote:
          > > > ... Is it just analysts
          > > > PROJECTING Lebron and Carmelo's abilities? Or are they really
          > that
          > > > good RIGHT now?
          > >
          > > No, they're not in the top 20 yet.
          >
          > I've got Lebron about #40, with Wade and Anthony also in the top
          50.
          >
          > I'm perplexed why Wade isn't mentioned as one of the Big 3, rather
          > than as one of the rest.
          >
          > rookie. G Min Eff% Sco. Reb Ast Stl (TO) Blk - Total(total)
          > L James 66 40 .481 19.9 5.6 5.7 1.5 (3.3) .8 - 30.2 (31.2)
          > Dw Wade 49 35 .525 19.1 4.8 5.2 1.5 (3.4) .6 - 29.4 (28.4)
          > Anthony 72 36 .504 21.4 6.3 3.1 1.2 (3.1) .5 - 28.8 (29.3)
          >
          > (The reason for the dual "total"s, is that the parenthesized one
          is
          > a weighted sum of the categorical rates; while the primary figure
          is
          > adjusted for team strength.)
          >
          > I realize Wade has missed games, and played fewer minutes. Also,
          > his raw numbers do not match up favorably. What do the adjusted
          +/-
          > numbers show? DanR?
          >
          > I've got James' 2004 in a dead heat with Moses Malone's 1975
          season
          > as the 2 best initial showings by rookies-out-of-high-school.
        • dan_t_rosenbaum
          With my stuff that uses a mixture of my adjusted plus/minus ratings and the linear weights generated from my plus/minus ratings, here are my rankings of these
          Message 4 of 7 , Mar 28, 2004
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            With my stuff that uses a mixture of my adjusted plus/minus ratings
            and the linear weights generated from my plus/minus ratings, here
            are my rankings of these guys among the 410 players who have played
            250 minutes or more over the past two seasons. (This season's
            minutes count twice as heavily as last season's and adjustments are
            made for crunch time and garbage time in the adjusted plus/minus
            statistics.)

            Josh Howard 54
            LeBron James 97
            Kirk Hinrich 109
            Dwyane Wade 152
            Carmelo Anthony 186
            Chris Bosh 282

            Using only the adjusted plus/minus ratings, here is what I get.

            Josh Howard 41
            Kirk Hinrich 76
            LeBron James 91
            Dwyane Wade 215
            Chris Bosh 342
            Carmelo Anthony 387

            And remember since I am using two years of data, the improvement of
            Cleveland, Denver, and Miami are factored into the ratings for
            James, Anthony, and Wade.

            For some perspective, here is my top ten for guys with at least 1000
            minutes over the last two seasons.

            1. Kevin Garnett
            2. Jason Kidd
            3. Tim Duncan
            4. Tracy McGrady
            5. Dirk Nowitski
            6. Shaquille O'Neal
            7. Baron Davis
            8. Andrei Kirilenko
            9. Arvydas Sabonis
            10. Kobe Bryant

            (The only other guy to crack the top 10 is Richie Frahm, but he has
            a very high standard error and only 375 minutes.)

            And now for the adjusted plus/minus rankings only with only guys
            with standard errors small enough that they can distinguised from
            the average player.

            1. Kevin Garnett
            2. Vince Carter
            3. Dirk Nowitski
            4. Baron Davis
            5. Tim Duncan
            6. Nene Hilario
            7. Morris Peterson
            8. Jason Kidd
            9. Tracy McGrady
            10. Steve Francis

            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
            > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
            > wrote:
            > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "nickouli5" <NikoTMP@g...>
            > wrote:
            > > > ... Is it just analysts
            > > > PROJECTING Lebron and Carmelo's abilities? Or are they really
            > that
            > > > good RIGHT now?
            > >
            > > No, they're not in the top 20 yet.
            >
            > I've got Lebron about #40, with Wade and Anthony also in the top
            50.
            >
            > I'm perplexed why Wade isn't mentioned as one of the Big 3, rather
            > than as one of the rest.
            >
            > rookie. G Min Eff% Sco. Reb Ast Stl (TO) Blk - Total(total)
            > L James 66 40 .481 19.9 5.6 5.7 1.5 (3.3) .8 - 30.2 (31.2)
            > Dw Wade 49 35 .525 19.1 4.8 5.2 1.5 (3.4) .6 - 29.4 (28.4)
            > Anthony 72 36 .504 21.4 6.3 3.1 1.2 (3.1) .5 - 28.8 (29.3)
            >
            > (The reason for the dual "total"s, is that the parenthesized one
            is
            > a weighted sum of the categorical rates; while the primary figure
            is
            > adjusted for team strength.)
            >
            > I realize Wade has missed games, and played fewer minutes. Also,
            > his raw numbers do not match up favorably. What do the adjusted
            +/-
            > numbers show? DanR?
            >
            > I've got James' 2004 in a dead heat with Moses Malone's 1975
            season
            > as the 2 best initial showings by rookies-out-of-high-school.
          • dan_t_rosenbaum
            And I forgot about Greg Ostertag who ranks #159 in my overall rankings and #123 in the adjusted plus/minus rankings alone.
            Message 5 of 7 , Mar 28, 2004
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              And I forgot about Greg Ostertag who ranks #159 in my overall
              rankings and #123 in the adjusted plus/minus rankings alone.
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