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Lebron and Melo.....Projection or Reality?

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  • nickouli5
    Many times when I am watching television and over hearing some analysts and announcers such as Sean Elliot talk about James and Carmelo I have to wonder.
    Message 1 of 7 , Mar 26, 2004
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      Many times when I am watching television and over hearing some
      analysts and announcers such as Sean Elliot talk about James and
      Carmelo I have to wonder.

      Several analysts/fans mention how Lebron is a top 20, some say even
      Top 10 player in this league right now. Some also say Melo is up
      there, albeit maybe not as good as Lebron.

      Question is: How much of that is truth? Is it just analysts
      PROJECTING Lebron and Carmelo's abilities? Or are they really that
      good RIGHT now?

      I find it interesting, even though I understand they are inconsistent
      for some stretches of the seasonand other streches look awesome ,
      that neither is in the TOP 50 in PER ratings.

      I wonder what their actual rankings are in PER right now.

      Does anyone have an updated database of John Hollinger (perhaps you
      can help me out John ;)) or a spreadsheet with all the NBA players
      and their updated PER's?

      How do they rank?

      How good are Bron and Melo RIGHT NOW?
    • Dean Oliver
      ... No, they re not in the top 20 yet. They have games that are in the top 20, which is impressive. But they have a lot of bad games that go unreported (or
      Message 2 of 7 , Mar 27, 2004
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "nickouli5" <NikoTMP@g...> wrote:
        >
        > Question is: How much of that is truth? Is it just analysts
        > PROJECTING Lebron and Carmelo's abilities? Or are they really that
        > good RIGHT now?

        No, they're not in the top 20 yet. They have games that are in the
        top 20, which is impressive. But they have a lot of bad games that go
        unreported (or under-emphasized, at least). I think these guys get
        evaluated early on based on their best games, which people seem to
        think is a good indicator of the future -- something that could be
        interesting to test.

        All the really early entry guys have a lot to learn in their rookie
        years. I've seen a fair amount of offensive improvement among quality
        rookies. Name a superstar and they improved quite a lot offensively
        from their first to their second years. In these guys cases, LeBron's
        offensive rating is about 100 and Carmelo's is 102. Neither is quite
        at the league average for points per 100 possessions. Both are using
        28% of their team's possessions, quite high, but a good way for young
        guys to improve. Both have slowly improved over the course of the
        season, with ratings around 95-98 after about 20 games. Both started
        off using about 25% of team possessions. So both are becoming more
        the centerpieces of their offenses. LeBron has always been a hair
        behind Carmelo. Though Carmelo has impressed me more than I thought,
        I still have this instinct (calling from my scouting background) that
        LeBron is going to be a better player. I'm probably looking at
        LeBron's superior athleticism.

        DeanO

        Dean Oliver
        Author, Basketball on Paper
        http://www.basketballonpaper.com
        When basketball teams start playing Moneyball, this is the book
        they'll use!
      • nickouli5
        Where are you getting this PP possesion? I dont see it in the database you have on your website. Also is there anyway to navigate the Database easy and copy
        Message 3 of 7 , Mar 27, 2004
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          Where are you getting this PP possesion? I dont see it in the
          database you have on your website.

          Also is there anyway to navigate the Database easy and copy and
          paste the records for comaprisons outside the actual program?

          Thanks.

          Lastly, is performance rating per minute the most important stat
          that says how good the player is?
        • Mike G
          ... that ... I ve got Lebron about #40, with Wade and Anthony also in the top 50. I m perplexed why Wade isn t mentioned as one of the Big 3, rather than as
          Message 4 of 7 , Mar 28, 2004
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            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
            wrote:
            > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "nickouli5" <NikoTMP@g...>
            wrote:
            > > ... Is it just analysts
            > > PROJECTING Lebron and Carmelo's abilities? Or are they really
            that
            > > good RIGHT now?
            >
            > No, they're not in the top 20 yet.

            I've got Lebron about #40, with Wade and Anthony also in the top 50.

            I'm perplexed why Wade isn't mentioned as one of the Big 3, rather
            than as one of the rest.

            rookie. G Min Eff% Sco. Reb Ast Stl (TO) Blk - Total(total)
            L James 66 40 .481 19.9 5.6 5.7 1.5 (3.3) .8 - 30.2 (31.2)
            Dw Wade 49 35 .525 19.1 4.8 5.2 1.5 (3.4) .6 - 29.4 (28.4)
            Anthony 72 36 .504 21.4 6.3 3.1 1.2 (3.1) .5 - 28.8 (29.3)

            (The reason for the dual "total"s, is that the parenthesized one is
            a weighted sum of the categorical rates; while the primary figure is
            adjusted for team strength.)

            I realize Wade has missed games, and played fewer minutes. Also,
            his raw numbers do not match up favorably. What do the adjusted +/-
            numbers show? DanR?

            I've got James' 2004 in a dead heat with Moses Malone's 1975 season
            as the 2 best initial showings by rookies-out-of-high-school.
          • wimpds
            I think another factor is age. If Dwayne Wade was 19, I think he d be getting the same press. Lebron and Carmelo are arguably having the most valuable
            Message 5 of 7 , Mar 28, 2004
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              I think another factor is age. If Dwayne Wade was 19, I think he'd
              be getting the same press. Lebron and Carmelo are arguably having
              the most valuable seasons by 19 year olds. A few dozen guys have
              have had better seasons than Wade at the same age (by my rating, of
              course). I think there is little question that Lebron and Carmelo
              will both go on to have better careers than Wade.


              --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
              > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
              > wrote:
              > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "nickouli5" <NikoTMP@g...>
              > wrote:
              > > > ... Is it just analysts
              > > > PROJECTING Lebron and Carmelo's abilities? Or are they really
              > that
              > > > good RIGHT now?
              > >
              > > No, they're not in the top 20 yet.
              >
              > I've got Lebron about #40, with Wade and Anthony also in the top
              50.
              >
              > I'm perplexed why Wade isn't mentioned as one of the Big 3, rather
              > than as one of the rest.
              >
              > rookie. G Min Eff% Sco. Reb Ast Stl (TO) Blk - Total(total)
              > L James 66 40 .481 19.9 5.6 5.7 1.5 (3.3) .8 - 30.2 (31.2)
              > Dw Wade 49 35 .525 19.1 4.8 5.2 1.5 (3.4) .6 - 29.4 (28.4)
              > Anthony 72 36 .504 21.4 6.3 3.1 1.2 (3.1) .5 - 28.8 (29.3)
              >
              > (The reason for the dual "total"s, is that the parenthesized one
              is
              > a weighted sum of the categorical rates; while the primary figure
              is
              > adjusted for team strength.)
              >
              > I realize Wade has missed games, and played fewer minutes. Also,
              > his raw numbers do not match up favorably. What do the adjusted
              +/-
              > numbers show? DanR?
              >
              > I've got James' 2004 in a dead heat with Moses Malone's 1975
              season
              > as the 2 best initial showings by rookies-out-of-high-school.
            • dan_t_rosenbaum
              With my stuff that uses a mixture of my adjusted plus/minus ratings and the linear weights generated from my plus/minus ratings, here are my rankings of these
              Message 6 of 7 , Mar 28, 2004
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                With my stuff that uses a mixture of my adjusted plus/minus ratings
                and the linear weights generated from my plus/minus ratings, here
                are my rankings of these guys among the 410 players who have played
                250 minutes or more over the past two seasons. (This season's
                minutes count twice as heavily as last season's and adjustments are
                made for crunch time and garbage time in the adjusted plus/minus
                statistics.)

                Josh Howard 54
                LeBron James 97
                Kirk Hinrich 109
                Dwyane Wade 152
                Carmelo Anthony 186
                Chris Bosh 282

                Using only the adjusted plus/minus ratings, here is what I get.

                Josh Howard 41
                Kirk Hinrich 76
                LeBron James 91
                Dwyane Wade 215
                Chris Bosh 342
                Carmelo Anthony 387

                And remember since I am using two years of data, the improvement of
                Cleveland, Denver, and Miami are factored into the ratings for
                James, Anthony, and Wade.

                For some perspective, here is my top ten for guys with at least 1000
                minutes over the last two seasons.

                1. Kevin Garnett
                2. Jason Kidd
                3. Tim Duncan
                4. Tracy McGrady
                5. Dirk Nowitski
                6. Shaquille O'Neal
                7. Baron Davis
                8. Andrei Kirilenko
                9. Arvydas Sabonis
                10. Kobe Bryant

                (The only other guy to crack the top 10 is Richie Frahm, but he has
                a very high standard error and only 375 minutes.)

                And now for the adjusted plus/minus rankings only with only guys
                with standard errors small enough that they can distinguised from
                the average player.

                1. Kevin Garnett
                2. Vince Carter
                3. Dirk Nowitski
                4. Baron Davis
                5. Tim Duncan
                6. Nene Hilario
                7. Morris Peterson
                8. Jason Kidd
                9. Tracy McGrady
                10. Steve Francis

                --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
                > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
                > wrote:
                > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "nickouli5" <NikoTMP@g...>
                > wrote:
                > > > ... Is it just analysts
                > > > PROJECTING Lebron and Carmelo's abilities? Or are they really
                > that
                > > > good RIGHT now?
                > >
                > > No, they're not in the top 20 yet.
                >
                > I've got Lebron about #40, with Wade and Anthony also in the top
                50.
                >
                > I'm perplexed why Wade isn't mentioned as one of the Big 3, rather
                > than as one of the rest.
                >
                > rookie. G Min Eff% Sco. Reb Ast Stl (TO) Blk - Total(total)
                > L James 66 40 .481 19.9 5.6 5.7 1.5 (3.3) .8 - 30.2 (31.2)
                > Dw Wade 49 35 .525 19.1 4.8 5.2 1.5 (3.4) .6 - 29.4 (28.4)
                > Anthony 72 36 .504 21.4 6.3 3.1 1.2 (3.1) .5 - 28.8 (29.3)
                >
                > (The reason for the dual "total"s, is that the parenthesized one
                is
                > a weighted sum of the categorical rates; while the primary figure
                is
                > adjusted for team strength.)
                >
                > I realize Wade has missed games, and played fewer minutes. Also,
                > his raw numbers do not match up favorably. What do the adjusted
                +/-
                > numbers show? DanR?
                >
                > I've got James' 2004 in a dead heat with Moses Malone's 1975
                season
                > as the 2 best initial showings by rookies-out-of-high-school.
              • dan_t_rosenbaum
                And I forgot about Greg Ostertag who ranks #159 in my overall rankings and #123 in the adjusted plus/minus rankings alone.
                Message 7 of 7 , Mar 28, 2004
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                  And I forgot about Greg Ostertag who ranks #159 in my overall
                  rankings and #123 in the adjusted plus/minus rankings alone.
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