Re: The Problem with Possessions-Based Linear Weights
- --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "dan_t_rosenbaum"
> So what is wrong with this approach? The problem is that there areLet's first hear a good argument that the unmeasured contributions are
> numerous contributions to successful or failed possessions for which
> there are no statistics - a good pick, an ineffective blockout, a
> good entry pass that leads to a score but not an assist, the
> presence of a shot blocker that keeps his opponents from driving to
> the hoop. One could easily argue that the unmeasured contributions
> to successful or failed possessions are more than the measured
> contributions, e.g. points, assists, steals, etc.
more (more what?) than the measured contributions. Everything rests
on this statement. If unmeasured contributions are relatively
unimportant (which I believe they are on the offensive side, not the
defensive side), then you can use an approach like mine.
Author, Basketball on Paper
"Oliver's book provides an insightful framework for basketball. His
approach highlights and simplifies the basic goals of team offenses
and defenses, with an interesting description of how teamwork among
players with different roles can be evaluated. This book is a unique
and surprisingly practical addition to a coach's library." Dean
Smith, Hall of Fame Basketball Coach, University of North Carolina
- I think wimpds has a point here.
If a particular player with limited offensive skills tends to play
at times when his teammates shoot more poorly (because they are in
essence playing 4 on 5) than their WINVAL ratings suggest they
should, that player would end up with more offensive rebounding
opportunities than a typical player.
But let's suppose a guy is on the floor for 80 possessions in 40
minutes and he drops his team's shooting percentage down 5
percentage points (a pretty big drop). I would assume that would
result in about three to five extra offensive rebounding
opportunities for this player and if he collects 10 percent of those
extra rebounds, this amounts to 0.3 to 0.5 extra offensive rebounds
per 40 minutes. Not trivial, but also not a huge difference.
--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "wimpds" <wimpds@y...> wrote:
> But if teammates are more likely to miss shots when they play with
> than when they play with other players, that will depress your
> rating, right? If this attribute is correlated with individual
> offensive rebounding, won't it have a negative effect on the value
> the coefficent?
> On the defensive side, we only have a few variables to contribute
> significantly to your WinVal rating. [I'd be interested in seeing
> regressions run separately on the offensive and defensive WinVal
> ratings.] Defensive Rebounds coefficient might be picking up
> something more than simply rebounding ability, it could be getting
> defense somewhat more generally.
> --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada"
> > It's a good thought, although the regression should already
> > account for this by already measuring the impact of
> > opponents missing shots and one's team missing shots.
> > --MKT
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: wimpds [mailto:wimpds@y...]
> > Sent: Monday, March 29, 2004 3:13 PM
> > To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
> > Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: The Problem with Possessions-Based
> > Weights
> > Another thought on this subject ( though I may not be thinking
> > the regression carefully enough) is that offensive rebounds are
> > probably correlated with having teammates missing shots while
> > defensive rebounds are correlated with the opponent missing
> > This effect would seem to be even stronger if your teammates are
> > likely to miss because you're not attracting any defensive
> > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "carlos12155"
> > <carlosmanuel@b...> wrote:
> > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...>
> > > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Kevin Pelton"
> > > > <kpelton08@h...> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > Rodman specialized in rebounding -- not offensive
> > > > was
> > > > > great at both ends. I don't know if I can think of someone
> > > > > specializes specifically in offensive rebounding.
> > > >
> > > > The original poster meant, I'm sure, that on Offense, Rodman
> > > > little more than rebound missed shots, at least by the time
> > > > career when he was with the Bulls.
> > > >
> > > > Obviously, he went to the other end of the court on defense,
> > > > other things there.
> > > >
> > >
> > > That was exactly my intention. It seemed to me that if
> > > rebounds are at some level a negative, Rodman performance
would be the
> > > perfect example; after all that was the only thing he did on
> > Yahoo! Groups Links