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Re: Charting Laker games

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  • HoopStudies
    ... what an NBA ... recorded ... those ... worth. ... yielding 165 ... steals, 266 ... Probably a minor point, but you can t really assume 1 pt/ordinary
    Message 1 of 4 , Dec 7, 2001
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:

      > Great point. The right, and useful, thing to do is to figure out
      what an NBA
      > official steal is worth---not what Stu steals are worth. The NBA
      recorded
      > 227 steals, 32 more than me. Perhaps the best thing is to just give
      those
      > extra steals the NBA saw the same 1 point an ordinary possession is
      worth.
      > So now we have 227 steals, resulting in 126 fastbreak attempts
      yielding 165
      > points, and 101 non-fastbreak attempts worth 101 points. 227
      steals, 266
      > points, 1.17 pts/stl. Just a thought.

      Probably a minor point, but you can't really assume 1 pt/ordinary
      possession if you also assume 1 pt/all possessions and we're showing
      > 1pt/stl possession unless steal possessions are a small percentage
      of all possessions. 227 steal possessions out of ~14*180~2500
      possessions or 10%. So you may use 0.9 pts/non-steal possessions,
      subtract 3-4 pts and 262 pts/227 steals = 1.15 pts/stl. Definitely a
      minor point. 1 pt/poss doesn't change answer much.

      >
      > Dean Oliver asked: "How many total "and-1's" have their been for
      the Laker
      > team? How many total technical foul shots for the team?"
      >
      > Here's the breakdown for the 14 games. Lakers 421 total FTA's
      consisting of
      > 11 technicals FT (Kobe 8; Richmond 2; poor Joe Crispin 1), 41 "and-
      1" FT
      > (Shaq 27; Kobe 7; Samaki 3; Medvedenko, Rob Horry, George, Fox 1
      each), and
      > 78 Bonus FT (Kobe 22; Shaq 18; Rob Horry 10; Hunter 8; George 6;
      Richmond 6;
      > BShaw 4; Fox 2; Penberthy 2). Two threepoint shooters were fouled,
      Hunter
      > was fouled Flagrantly and Richmond was fouled simultaneously as
      someone else
      > was making a basket. 282 FT's were from normal two-shot shooting
      fouls.
      >

      What's the breakdown on the normal FTA's by player? I'm trying to
      fill in the matrix to better estimate what that 0.4 becomes from
      player to player. I guess big men would have more and-1's and,
      hence, a lower value than 0.4.

      > I count bonus fouls because, to me, they just don't seem part of
      the players
      > REAL offensive contribution. It's more like the defense is being
      > over-aggressive and these guys just happened to have the ball, or
      they are
      > situational (Hack-a-Shaq and end of games). It's not like the
      defense is
      > trying to prevent a shot in those situations, they just want the
      ball back.

      In the Laker situation, it seems that a lot of bonus fouls may be to
      put Shaq at the line or because the Lakers want Kobe with the ball at
      the end of a game they're winning. There is some "real" to it.

      >
      > Dean, your 0.4 factor may be good for teams (although in this
      sample it's
      > coming out to 0.44), but not individuals.
      >

      You don't even say how you calculate 0.44, but I calculate the same
      value, so we're on the same page. 0.4 has been checked a couple
      times, but not recently. The Lakers are a weird team admittedly.
      Frankly, with the emphasis on defense and the increased number of
      jump shooters (not necessarily good ones), the number might have gone
      up. Also, the Lakers last year were one of those rare teams where my
      estimates of net points didn't check out with their real numbers (I
      thin. Weird team.

      I can start improving the individual estimate of the number if you
      fill in those "normal ftas" above.

      > And regarding offensive fouls, in the 14 charted games the
      opponents had 359
      > fouls of which 38 were offensive. The Lakers without Shaq had 245
      fouls of
      > which 16 were offensive. Both are MUCH lower percentages than
      Shaq's 25%.
      > That's why I'm saying Shaq is unique, he's like this outlying data
      point
      > that skews your results. It's like trying to determine the
      theoretical
      > 100-year storm for a watershed with only 10 years of rainfall
      record, and
      > Shaq is the unique monsoonal hurricane that occurred in Year 3.

      You're not another environmental engineer, are you? Lots of us in
      basketball stuff, too....

      DeanO
    • HoopStudies
      ... consisting of ... 1 FT ... each), and ... Richmond 6; ... Hunter ... someone else ... fouls. 282 + 11 + 41 + 78 + (3 + 1) = 416 421 What did I do
      Message 2 of 4 , Dec 7, 2001
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:
        >
        > Here's the breakdown for the 14 games. Lakers 421 total FTA's
        consisting of
        > 11 technicals FT (Kobe 8; Richmond 2; poor Joe Crispin 1), 41 "and-
        1" FT
        > (Shaq 27; Kobe 7; Samaki 3; Medvedenko, Rob Horry, George, Fox 1
        each), and
        > 78 Bonus FT (Kobe 22; Shaq 18; Rob Horry 10; Hunter 8; George 6;
        Richmond 6;
        > BShaw 4; Fox 2; Penberthy 2). Two threepoint shooters were fouled,
        Hunter
        > was fouled Flagrantly and Richmond was fouled simultaneously as
        someone else
        > was making a basket. 282 FT's were from normal two-shot shooting
        fouls.

        282 + 11 + 41 + 78 + (3 + 1) = 416 <> 421

        What did I do wrong? I got the impression that Richmond's foul shot
        on the 3 pt case was only one ft. True?
      • McKibbin, Stuart
        ... From: deano@rawbw.com Sent: Friday, December 07, 2001 6:27 PM To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com; deano@rawbw.com Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Charting
        Message 3 of 4 , Dec 9, 2001
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          -----Original Message-----
          From: deano@...
          Sent: Friday, December 07, 2001 6:27 PM
          To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com; deano@...
          Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Charting Laker games


          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:

          Here's the breakdown for the 14 games. Lakers 421 total FTA's
          consisting of 11 technicals FT (Kobe 8; Richmond 2; poor Joe Crispin 1), 41 "and-1" FT (Shaq 27; Kobe 7; Samaki 3; Medvedenko, Rob Horry, George, Fox 1 each), and 78 Bonus FT (Kobe 22; Shaq 18; Rob Horry 10; Hunter 8; George 6; Richmond 6; BShaw 4; Fox 2; Penberthy 2). Two threepoint shooters were fouled, Hunter was fouled Flagrantly and Richmond was fouled simultaneously as someone else was making a basket. 282 FT's were from normal two-shot shooting fouls.

          282 + 11 + 41 + 78 + (3 + 1) = 416 <> 421

          What did I do wrong? I got the impression that Richmond's foul shot
          on the 3 pt case was only one ft. True?

          Dean, it should be 282 + 11 + 41 +78 + (6 + 2 + 1) = 421
          The three point shooter was fouled twice, the flagrant was a two shot, you got Richmond's right. By the way, in the 14 games the Lakers are only officially credited with 419 FT's because two FT's were disallowed because a Laker player was in the lane too early. I kept them in my numbers because it keeps the number of possessions right.

          I've updated the freethrows to include the latest Dallas and Sacramento games (still missing 1st Utah and Houston games). So now for 16 charted games the breakdown is as follows:

          Kobe 128 total FT's = 8 "and-1's", 8 techs, 24 bonus, 88 shooting
          Fox 21 total FT's = 1 "and-1", 0 techs, 4 bonus, 16 shooting
          George 27 FT's = 1 "and-1", 0 techs, 6 bonus, 20 shooting
          Horry 24 FT's = 1 "and-1", 0 techs, 12 bonus, 8 shooting, 3 three-point shooting
          Hunter 17 FT's = 0 "and-1", 0 techs, 10 bonus, 4 shooting, 3 three-point shooting
          Shaq 188 FT's = 32 "and-1", 0 techs, 20 bonus, 136 shooting
          Richmond 21 FT's = 0 "and-1", 2 tech, 6 bonus, 12 shooting, 1 simultaneous
          Walker 20 FT's = 4 "and-1", 0 techs, 0 bonus, 16 shooting

          Kobe and George were the two that had freethrows attempts disallowed by the refs.

          Mike (msg_53) said: "If Lakers have: 176 pts / 156 OReb
          and Shaq has: 57 pts / 54 OReb
          then
          non-Shaq Lakers: 119 pts / 102 OReb

          That would seem to make Shaq weaker at scoring after an OReb than his
          teammates are?"

          Actually, Mike, the Lakers scored 69 points after 54 Shaq Orebs, and the 102 non-Shaq Orebs yielded 107 points.

          You know, the more I think about it, the Laker efficiency is even better than what I've been telling you. 156 Orebs total, but 13 possessions had two Orebs, and 2 possessions had 3 ORebs. So 156 - (13*1) - (2*2) = 139 possessions that had Orebs.

          176 points/ 139 possessions = 1.27 pt/poss.

          For the opponents, 167 Orebs, but 14 possessions had 2 Orebs, 5 possessions had 3 Orebs, and 1 possession had 5 Orebs. So 167 - (14*1) - (5*2) - (1*4) = 139 possessions that had Orebs.

          Opponents 161 points/139 possessions = 1.15 pt/poss
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