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comparing eras again

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  • harlanzo
    A while back, we had a long discussion on comparing eras. In that spirit, I saw this article on baseball and eras that was interesting:
    Message 1 of 6 , Mar 22, 2004
      A while back, we had a long discussion on comparing eras. In that
      spirit, I saw this article on baseball and eras that was interesting:

      http://baseballprimer.com/articles/cdial_2004-03-18_0.shtml

      It doesn't resolve the issues and it doesn't translate perfectly to
      hoops. I also seem to remember someone here (maybe mike g) also
      looking at standard deviation. But this author makes some
      interesting arguments and asks some interesting questions (without
      answering them) that help attack the problem for other angles:

      -If Babe Ruth in his baseball prime was transported into our modern
      league, would he be worth more wins than Barry Bonds over a career?
      Over one season?

      -If Babe Ruth was born in the same year as Barry Bonds, and grew up
      in the same environment, would he be worth more wins than Barry
      Bonds over a career? Over one season?

      -Who was worth more wins in his contextual era?


      Switch and Ruth and Bonds with Wilt and Shaq and you've got the same
      issues.
    • dan_t_rosenbaum
      Here is the procedure I would do if I wanted to get to the bottom of this question. 1. Take a given statistical index (such as PER or Tendex) and normalize it
      Message 2 of 6 , Mar 22, 2004
        Here is the procedure I would do if I wanted to get to the bottom of
        this question.

        1. Take a given statistical index (such as PER or Tendex) and
        normalize it to have the same mean in every season.

        2. By season, estimate the fraction of total PER (or Tendex)
        accounted for by each birth year cohort. This will result in about
        20 observations for each season.

        3. Run this regression using as many seasons as possible - preferably
        going back to the 40s, 50s, and 60s. (The index may need to be
        adjusted accordingly.)

        PER_FR = b1*BIRTH_YEAR_DUMMIES + b2*AGE_DUMMIES + e,

        where PER_FR is the fraction of total PER (or Tendex) accounted for
        by a given birth year cohort in a given season,
        BIRTH_YEAR_DUMMIES are a series of dummy variables for birth year
        AGE_DUMMIES are a series of dummy variables for age

        If the b1 coefficients tend to more positive for later birth year
        cohorts, then succeeding generations of players have been more
        productive than their predecessors. If the b1 coefficients are
        negative, succeeding generations of players have been less productive
        than their predecessors.

        I do not have the data to run this regression, but I would be very
        interested in hearing what happens if anyone has the data, time, and
        inclination to run this regression.

        A handful of birth year cohorts may get a little bump due to the
        timing of expansion, but overall this method should be do a good job
        of handling the complications brought on by expansion.

        This model assumes many things, including that the relationship
        between age and NBA production has not changed over time. Slight
        variations of the basic model above could deal with that issue.

        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "harlanzo" <harlanzo@y...>
        wrote:
        > A while back, we had a long discussion on comparing eras. In that
        > spirit, I saw this article on baseball and eras that was
        interesting:
        >
        > http://baseballprimer.com/articles/cdial_2004-03-18_0.shtml
        >
        > It doesn't resolve the issues and it doesn't translate perfectly to
        > hoops. I also seem to remember someone here (maybe mike g) also
        > looking at standard deviation. But this author makes some
        > interesting arguments and asks some interesting questions (without
        > answering them) that help attack the problem for other angles:
        >
        > -If Babe Ruth in his baseball prime was transported into our modern
        > league, would he be worth more wins than Barry Bonds over a career?
        > Over one season?
        >
        > -If Babe Ruth was born in the same year as Barry Bonds, and grew up
        > in the same environment, would he be worth more wins than Barry
        > Bonds over a career? Over one season?
        >
        > -Who was worth more wins in his contextual era?
        >
        >
        > Switch and Ruth and Bonds with Wilt and Shaq and you've got the
        same
        > issues.
      • schtevie2003
        As a major protagonist/antagonist of part of the comparing eras debate of a year ago, I would summarize the contending issues as follows (and this relates to
        Message 3 of 6 , Mar 22, 2004
          As a major protagonist/antagonist of part of the "comparing eras" debate of a year ago, I
          would summarize the contending issues as follows (and this relates to dan's remarks
          below).

          There were many near-ideological debates on "what is fair to compare?" Is it fair, for
          example, to imagine a game between players in Nikes versus those in Converse? I think
          on this simplest of criterion, my impression is that most people implicitly were in
          agreement that one should not make comparisons based on such physical technology (not
          that existing stats would even reveal an advantage - unless there were a lot of slow
          adapters to new footwear). After that, there was little by way of agreement in terms of
          "holding all else equal" and in fact, there were many basic disagreements on fact itself.
          Thus, the view that players today are on average variously bigger, faster, and stronger was
          not universal - some contributors disagreeing that this statement in fact represented the
          truth. Dean, if I recall correctly, posted some interesting data on the fact that there was a
          positive return to relative height advantage and that average height was increasing over
          some period of time. (If that analysis is in BoP, forgive me, I haven't gotten to that chapter
          yet.) But no data was offered about quickness or strength. And then there was a
          discussion about the effect of race as a potential variable to be used in comparing the
          relative strength of various eras.

          Now, as regards Dan's regression, height would be something that age proxies would pick
          up, I think (and racial composition too, but I don't have deep thoughts on this issue, and it
          is a topic that requires them). But there is another important factor that these proxies
          would pick up that I believe might result in misleading conclusions. Specifically, my
          concern is that they would pick up the factor that I was claiming was hugely important -
          namely, improvements in the "dis-embodied technology of offensive play", or, in other
          words, better offensive coaching. Specifically, my point was that this factor must be the
          overriding factor in the improvement in offensive productivity from the beginning of the
          league until the "modern era" of the mid-80s. So, I am not sure that it is proper to
          attribute this to player cohorts.

          Where the cohort analysis did pop up a year ago was to specifically address the effect of
          league expansion on potential talent dilution. And I just can't recall what the bottom line
          was on that, except, perhaps that it hadn't yet been reached but that initial inquiries were
          very interesting.

          *************


          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "dan_t_rosenbaum" <rosenbaum@u...> wrote:
          > Here is the procedure I would do if I wanted to get to the bottom of
          > this question.
          >
          > 1. Take a given statistical index (such as PER or Tendex) and
          > normalize it to have the same mean in every season.
          >
          > 2. By season, estimate the fraction of total PER (or Tendex)
          > accounted for by each birth year cohort. This will result in about
          > 20 observations for each season.
          >
          > 3. Run this regression using as many seasons as possible - preferably
          > going back to the 40s, 50s, and 60s. (The index may need to be
          > adjusted accordingly.)
          >
          > PER_FR = b1*BIRTH_YEAR_DUMMIES + b2*AGE_DUMMIES + e,
          >
          > where PER_FR is the fraction of total PER (or Tendex) accounted for
          > by a given birth year cohort in a given season,
          > BIRTH_YEAR_DUMMIES are a series of dummy variables for birth year
          > AGE_DUMMIES are a series of dummy variables for age
          >
          > If the b1 coefficients tend to more positive for later birth year
          > cohorts, then succeeding generations of players have been more
          > productive than their predecessors. If the b1 coefficients are
          > negative, succeeding generations of players have been less productive
          > than their predecessors.
          >
          > I do not have the data to run this regression, but I would be very
          > interested in hearing what happens if anyone has the data, time, and
          > inclination to run this regression.
          >
          > A handful of birth year cohorts may get a little bump due to the
          > timing of expansion, but overall this method should be do a good job
          > of handling the complications brought on by expansion.
          >
          > This model assumes many things, including that the relationship
          > between age and NBA production has not changed over time. Slight
          > variations of the basic model above could deal with that issue.
          >
          > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "harlanzo" <harlanzo@y...>
          > wrote:
          > > A while back, we had a long discussion on comparing eras. In that
          > > spirit, I saw this article on baseball and eras that was
          > interesting:
          > >
          > > http://baseballprimer.com/articles/cdial_2004-03-18_0.shtml
          > >
          > > It doesn't resolve the issues and it doesn't translate perfectly to
          > > hoops. I also seem to remember someone here (maybe mike g) also
          > > looking at standard deviation. But this author makes some
          > > interesting arguments and asks some interesting questions (without
          > > answering them) that help attack the problem for other angles:
          > >
          > > -If Babe Ruth in his baseball prime was transported into our modern
          > > league, would he be worth more wins than Barry Bonds over a career?
          > > Over one season?
          > >
          > > -If Babe Ruth was born in the same year as Barry Bonds, and grew up
          > > in the same environment, would he be worth more wins than Barry
          > > Bonds over a career? Over one season?
          > >
          > > -Who was worth more wins in his contextual era?
          > >
          > >
          > > Switch and Ruth and Bonds with Wilt and Shaq and you've got the
          > same
          > > issues.
        • dan_t_rosenbaum
          This methodology that I am proposing would not really be comparing players from different eras. What it would be doing is comparing the guys born in 1951 to
          Message 4 of 6 , Mar 22, 2004
            This methodology that I am proposing would not really be comparing
            players from different eras. What it would be doing is comparing the
            guys born in 1951 to those born in 1955 in the years in which they
            overlapped, accounting for the differences in ages. And those guys
            born in 1955 would be compared to the guys born in 1960 and the guys
            born in 1960 would be compared to the guys in 1966 and so on.
            Through all of these comparisons, we can get a sense of which cohorts
            produced the most. Only by transitivity do we get comparisons across
            different eras.

            Thus, gradual changes in height, race, offensive technology, etc., I
            don't think will be a big deal here. (Remember the statistical index
            is normalized to have the same mean in each year.) Early entry and
            improved conditioning and medical technologies may give a slight bias
            to later cohorts, but there are ways to deal with that in a second
            round of regressions.


            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "schtevie2003" <schtevie@h...>
            wrote:
            > Now, as regards Dan's regression, height would be something that
            age proxies would pick
            > up, I think (and racial composition too, but I don't have deep
            thoughts on this issue, and it
            > is a topic that requires them). But there is another important
            factor that these proxies
            > would pick up that I believe might result in misleading
            conclusions. Specifically, my
            > concern is that they would pick up the factor that I was claiming
            was hugely important -
            > namely, improvements in the "dis-embodied technology of offensive
            play", or, in other
            > words, better offensive coaching. Specifically, my point was that
            this factor must be the
            > overriding factor in the improvement in offensive productivity from
            the beginning of the
            > league until the "modern era" of the mid-80s. So, I am not sure
            that it is proper to
            > attribute this to player cohorts.
            >
            > Where the cohort analysis did pop up a year ago was to specifically
            address the effect of
            > league expansion on potential talent dilution. And I just can't
            recall what the bottom line
            > was on that, except, perhaps that it hadn't yet been reached but
            that initial inquiries were
            > very interesting.
          • Mike G
            See this post (and up and down the thread), from the archives: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/message/1578 Rather than get into production rates
            Message 5 of 6 , Mar 23, 2004
              See this post (and up and down the thread), from the archives:

              http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/message/1578

              Rather than get into 'production rates' (and all we could debate
              therein), I just checked how player minutes rise or fall from one
              season to the next.

              In general, a player's minutes diminish as the years go by. Does
              this mean the league has generally gotten more competitive?



              --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "dan_t_rosenbaum"
              <rosenbaum@u...> wrote:
              > This methodology that I am proposing would not really be comparing
              > players from different eras. What it would be doing is comparing
              the
              > guys born in 1951 to those born in 1955 in the years in which they
              > overlapped, accounting for the differences in ages. And those
              guys
              > born in 1955 would be compared to the guys born in 1960 and the
              guys
              > born in 1960 would be compared to the guys in 1966 and so on.
              > Through all of these comparisons, we can get a sense of which
              cohorts
              > produced the most. Only by transitivity do we get comparisons
              across
              > different eras.
              >
              > Thus, gradual changes in height, race, offensive technology, etc.,
              I
              > don't think will be a big deal here. (Remember the statistical
              index
              > is normalized to have the same mean in each year.) Early entry
              and
              > improved conditioning and medical technologies may give a slight
              bias
              > to later cohorts, but there are ways to deal with that in a second
              > round of regressions.
              >
              >
              > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "schtevie2003"
              <schtevie@h...>
              > wrote:
              > > Now, as regards Dan's regression, height would be something that
              > age proxies would pick
              > > up, I think (and racial composition too, but I don't have deep
              > thoughts on this issue, and it
              > > is a topic that requires them). But there is another important
              > factor that these proxies
              > > would pick up that I believe might result in misleading
              > conclusions. Specifically, my
              > > concern is that they would pick up the factor that I was
              claiming
              > was hugely important -
              > > namely, improvements in the "dis-embodied technology of
              offensive
              > play", or, in other
              > > words, better offensive coaching. Specifically, my point was
              that
              > this factor must be the
              > > overriding factor in the improvement in offensive productivity
              from
              > the beginning of the
              > > league until the "modern era" of the mid-80s. So, I am not sure
              > that it is proper to
              > > attribute this to player cohorts.
              > >
              > > Where the cohort analysis did pop up a year ago was to
              specifically
              > address the effect of
              > > league expansion on potential talent dilution. And I just can't
              > recall what the bottom line
              > > was on that, except, perhaps that it hadn't yet been reached but
              > that initial inquiries were
              > > very interesting.
            • dan_t_rosenbaum
              But you are ignoring the huge increases and decreases players get in minutes in their first and last seasons. Presumably, what your results show is that the
              Message 6 of 6 , Mar 23, 2004
                But you are ignoring the huge increases and decreases players get in
                minutes in their first and last seasons. Presumably, what your
                results show is that the increase in the first season (from zero
                minutes) tends to be much larger than the decrease in the last
                season (to zero minutes). I am not quite sure how that is helpful
                in comparing players across eras.

                However, your results got me thinking that rather than some
                statistical measure, it might make more sense to simply calculate
                cohorts' shares of minutes played season by season.

                --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
                > See this post (and up and down the thread), from the archives:
                >
                > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/message/1578
                >
                > Rather than get into 'production rates' (and all we could debate
                > therein), I just checked how player minutes rise or fall from one
                > season to the next.
                >
                > In general, a player's minutes diminish as the years go by. Does
                > this mean the league has generally gotten more competitive?
                >
                >
                >
                > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "dan_t_rosenbaum"
                > <rosenbaum@u...> wrote:
                > > This methodology that I am proposing would not really be
                comparing
                > > players from different eras. What it would be doing is
                comparing
                > the
                > > guys born in 1951 to those born in 1955 in the years in which
                they
                > > overlapped, accounting for the differences in ages. And those
                > guys
                > > born in 1955 would be compared to the guys born in 1960 and the
                > guys
                > > born in 1960 would be compared to the guys in 1966 and so on.
                > > Through all of these comparisons, we can get a sense of which
                > cohorts
                > > produced the most. Only by transitivity do we get comparisons
                > across
                > > different eras.
                > >
                > > Thus, gradual changes in height, race, offensive technology,
                etc.,
                > I
                > > don't think will be a big deal here. (Remember the statistical
                > index
                > > is normalized to have the same mean in each year.) Early entry
                > and
                > > improved conditioning and medical technologies may give a slight
                > bias
                > > to later cohorts, but there are ways to deal with that in a
                second
                > > round of regressions.
                > >
                > >
                > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "schtevie2003"
                > <schtevie@h...>
                > > wrote:
                > > > Now, as regards Dan's regression, height would be something
                that
                > > age proxies would pick
                > > > up, I think (and racial composition too, but I don't have deep
                > > thoughts on this issue, and it
                > > > is a topic that requires them). But there is another
                important
                > > factor that these proxies
                > > > would pick up that I believe might result in misleading
                > > conclusions. Specifically, my
                > > > concern is that they would pick up the factor that I was
                > claiming
                > > was hugely important -
                > > > namely, improvements in the "dis-embodied technology of
                > offensive
                > > play", or, in other
                > > > words, better offensive coaching. Specifically, my point was
                > that
                > > this factor must be the
                > > > overriding factor in the improvement in offensive productivity
                > from
                > > the beginning of the
                > > > league until the "modern era" of the mid-80s. So, I am not
                sure
                > > that it is proper to
                > > > attribute this to player cohorts.
                > > >
                > > > Where the cohort analysis did pop up a year ago was to
                > specifically
                > > address the effect of
                > > > league expansion on potential talent dilution. And I just
                can't
                > > recall what the bottom line
                > > > was on that, except, perhaps that it hadn't yet been reached
                but
                > > that initial inquiries were
                > > > very interesting.
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