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Re: Charting Laker games

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  • McKibbin, Stuart
    McKibbin said: The official boxscores show Lakers 123 steals, opponent 104 steals. My preliminary numbers from the 14 games are Lakers 109 steals, 67
    Message 1 of 4 , Dec 6, 2001
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      McKibbin said: "The official boxscores show Lakers 123 steals, opponent 104 steals. My preliminary numbers from the 14 games are Lakers 109 steals, 67 fastbreak attempts, 83  points. Opponents 86 steals, 59 fastbreak attempts, 82 points. So if we assume the teams averaged 1 point for each non-fastbreak attempt steal that means Lakes 109 steals, 125 points; opponents 86 steals, 109 points. Totals: 195 steals, 234 points or 1.2 points per steal. I realize we can't extrapolate this to the league at large (Laker games may not be representative) but it is interesting."

      Dean Oliver replied: "Would be nice if you didn't assume 1 pt for non-fastbreak attempts. Also note that if you use the official count on steals, you have 227 steals and your estimate of 234 points off of it -- pretty close to 1 pt/assist. That's where the potential undercounting is a problem. Maybe "true" steals are worth 1.2 pts, but NBA official steals may be worth only about 1 pt."

      Great point. The right, and useful, thing to do is to figure out what an NBA official steal is worth---not what Stu steals are worth. The NBA recorded 227 steals, 32 more than me. Perhaps the best thing is to just give those extra steals the NBA saw the same 1 point an ordinary possession is worth. So now we have 227 steals, resulting in 126 fastbreak attempts yielding 165 points, and 101 non-fastbreak attempts worth 101 points. 227 steals, 266 points, 1.17 pts/stl. Just a thought.

      Dean Oliver asked: "How many total "and-1's" have their been for the Laker team? How many total technical foul shots for the team?"

      Here's the breakdown for the 14 games. Lakers 421 total FTA's consisting of 11 technicals FT (Kobe 8; Richmond 2; poor Joe Crispin 1), 41 "and-1" FT (Shaq 27; Kobe 7; Samaki 3; Medvedenko, Rob Horry, George, Fox 1 each), and 78 Bonus FT (Kobe 22; Shaq 18; Rob Horry 10; Hunter 8; George 6; Richmond 6; BShaw 4; Fox 2; Penberthy 2). Two threepoint shooters were fouled, Hunter was fouled Flagrantly and Richmond was fouled simultaneously as someone else was making a basket. 282 FT's were from normal two-shot shooting fouls.

      Opponents: 311 total FT's consisting of 26 technical FT, 14 "and-1" FT, 56 Bonus FT, 215 shooting FT's (they were fouled once attempting a three).

      The refs seem very intent and earnest on calling T's on the Lakes for looking at their opponent, hanging on the rim, swinging elbows, bitching (even when they aren't), and of course defensive 3-sec. A travesty.

      I count bonus fouls because, to me, they just don't seem part of the players REAL offensive contribution. It's more like the defense is being over-aggressive and these guys just happened to have the ball, or they are situational (Hack-a-Shaq and end of games). It's not like the defense is trying to prevent a shot in those situations, they just want the ball back.

      Dean, your 0.4 factor may be good for teams (although in this sample it's coming out to 0.44), but not individuals.

      And regarding offensive fouls, in the 14 charted games the opponents had 359 fouls of which 38 were offensive. The Lakers without Shaq had 245 fouls of which 16 were offensive. Both are MUCH lower percentages than Shaq's 25%. That's why I'm saying Shaq is unique, he's like this outlying data point that skews your results. It's like trying to determine the theoretical 100-year storm for a watershed with only 10 years of rainfall record, and Shaq is the unique monsoonal hurricane that occurred in Year 3.

    • HoopStudies
      ... what an NBA ... recorded ... those ... worth. ... yielding 165 ... steals, 266 ... Probably a minor point, but you can t really assume 1 pt/ordinary
      Message 2 of 4 , Dec 7, 2001
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:

        > Great point. The right, and useful, thing to do is to figure out
        what an NBA
        > official steal is worth---not what Stu steals are worth. The NBA
        recorded
        > 227 steals, 32 more than me. Perhaps the best thing is to just give
        those
        > extra steals the NBA saw the same 1 point an ordinary possession is
        worth.
        > So now we have 227 steals, resulting in 126 fastbreak attempts
        yielding 165
        > points, and 101 non-fastbreak attempts worth 101 points. 227
        steals, 266
        > points, 1.17 pts/stl. Just a thought.

        Probably a minor point, but you can't really assume 1 pt/ordinary
        possession if you also assume 1 pt/all possessions and we're showing
        > 1pt/stl possession unless steal possessions are a small percentage
        of all possessions. 227 steal possessions out of ~14*180~2500
        possessions or 10%. So you may use 0.9 pts/non-steal possessions,
        subtract 3-4 pts and 262 pts/227 steals = 1.15 pts/stl. Definitely a
        minor point. 1 pt/poss doesn't change answer much.

        >
        > Dean Oliver asked: "How many total "and-1's" have their been for
        the Laker
        > team? How many total technical foul shots for the team?"
        >
        > Here's the breakdown for the 14 games. Lakers 421 total FTA's
        consisting of
        > 11 technicals FT (Kobe 8; Richmond 2; poor Joe Crispin 1), 41 "and-
        1" FT
        > (Shaq 27; Kobe 7; Samaki 3; Medvedenko, Rob Horry, George, Fox 1
        each), and
        > 78 Bonus FT (Kobe 22; Shaq 18; Rob Horry 10; Hunter 8; George 6;
        Richmond 6;
        > BShaw 4; Fox 2; Penberthy 2). Two threepoint shooters were fouled,
        Hunter
        > was fouled Flagrantly and Richmond was fouled simultaneously as
        someone else
        > was making a basket. 282 FT's were from normal two-shot shooting
        fouls.
        >

        What's the breakdown on the normal FTA's by player? I'm trying to
        fill in the matrix to better estimate what that 0.4 becomes from
        player to player. I guess big men would have more and-1's and,
        hence, a lower value than 0.4.

        > I count bonus fouls because, to me, they just don't seem part of
        the players
        > REAL offensive contribution. It's more like the defense is being
        > over-aggressive and these guys just happened to have the ball, or
        they are
        > situational (Hack-a-Shaq and end of games). It's not like the
        defense is
        > trying to prevent a shot in those situations, they just want the
        ball back.

        In the Laker situation, it seems that a lot of bonus fouls may be to
        put Shaq at the line or because the Lakers want Kobe with the ball at
        the end of a game they're winning. There is some "real" to it.

        >
        > Dean, your 0.4 factor may be good for teams (although in this
        sample it's
        > coming out to 0.44), but not individuals.
        >

        You don't even say how you calculate 0.44, but I calculate the same
        value, so we're on the same page. 0.4 has been checked a couple
        times, but not recently. The Lakers are a weird team admittedly.
        Frankly, with the emphasis on defense and the increased number of
        jump shooters (not necessarily good ones), the number might have gone
        up. Also, the Lakers last year were one of those rare teams where my
        estimates of net points didn't check out with their real numbers (I
        thin. Weird team.

        I can start improving the individual estimate of the number if you
        fill in those "normal ftas" above.

        > And regarding offensive fouls, in the 14 charted games the
        opponents had 359
        > fouls of which 38 were offensive. The Lakers without Shaq had 245
        fouls of
        > which 16 were offensive. Both are MUCH lower percentages than
        Shaq's 25%.
        > That's why I'm saying Shaq is unique, he's like this outlying data
        point
        > that skews your results. It's like trying to determine the
        theoretical
        > 100-year storm for a watershed with only 10 years of rainfall
        record, and
        > Shaq is the unique monsoonal hurricane that occurred in Year 3.

        You're not another environmental engineer, are you? Lots of us in
        basketball stuff, too....

        DeanO
      • HoopStudies
        ... consisting of ... 1 FT ... each), and ... Richmond 6; ... Hunter ... someone else ... fouls. 282 + 11 + 41 + 78 + (3 + 1) = 416 421 What did I do
        Message 3 of 4 , Dec 7, 2001
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          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:
          >
          > Here's the breakdown for the 14 games. Lakers 421 total FTA's
          consisting of
          > 11 technicals FT (Kobe 8; Richmond 2; poor Joe Crispin 1), 41 "and-
          1" FT
          > (Shaq 27; Kobe 7; Samaki 3; Medvedenko, Rob Horry, George, Fox 1
          each), and
          > 78 Bonus FT (Kobe 22; Shaq 18; Rob Horry 10; Hunter 8; George 6;
          Richmond 6;
          > BShaw 4; Fox 2; Penberthy 2). Two threepoint shooters were fouled,
          Hunter
          > was fouled Flagrantly and Richmond was fouled simultaneously as
          someone else
          > was making a basket. 282 FT's were from normal two-shot shooting
          fouls.

          282 + 11 + 41 + 78 + (3 + 1) = 416 <> 421

          What did I do wrong? I got the impression that Richmond's foul shot
          on the 3 pt case was only one ft. True?
        • McKibbin, Stuart
          ... From: deano@rawbw.com Sent: Friday, December 07, 2001 6:27 PM To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com; deano@rawbw.com Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Charting
          Message 4 of 4 , Dec 9, 2001
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            -----Original Message-----
            From: deano@...
            Sent: Friday, December 07, 2001 6:27 PM
            To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com; deano@...
            Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Charting Laker games


            --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:

            Here's the breakdown for the 14 games. Lakers 421 total FTA's
            consisting of 11 technicals FT (Kobe 8; Richmond 2; poor Joe Crispin 1), 41 "and-1" FT (Shaq 27; Kobe 7; Samaki 3; Medvedenko, Rob Horry, George, Fox 1 each), and 78 Bonus FT (Kobe 22; Shaq 18; Rob Horry 10; Hunter 8; George 6; Richmond 6; BShaw 4; Fox 2; Penberthy 2). Two threepoint shooters were fouled, Hunter was fouled Flagrantly and Richmond was fouled simultaneously as someone else was making a basket. 282 FT's were from normal two-shot shooting fouls.

            282 + 11 + 41 + 78 + (3 + 1) = 416 <> 421

            What did I do wrong? I got the impression that Richmond's foul shot
            on the 3 pt case was only one ft. True?

            Dean, it should be 282 + 11 + 41 +78 + (6 + 2 + 1) = 421
            The three point shooter was fouled twice, the flagrant was a two shot, you got Richmond's right. By the way, in the 14 games the Lakers are only officially credited with 419 FT's because two FT's were disallowed because a Laker player was in the lane too early. I kept them in my numbers because it keeps the number of possessions right.

            I've updated the freethrows to include the latest Dallas and Sacramento games (still missing 1st Utah and Houston games). So now for 16 charted games the breakdown is as follows:

            Kobe 128 total FT's = 8 "and-1's", 8 techs, 24 bonus, 88 shooting
            Fox 21 total FT's = 1 "and-1", 0 techs, 4 bonus, 16 shooting
            George 27 FT's = 1 "and-1", 0 techs, 6 bonus, 20 shooting
            Horry 24 FT's = 1 "and-1", 0 techs, 12 bonus, 8 shooting, 3 three-point shooting
            Hunter 17 FT's = 0 "and-1", 0 techs, 10 bonus, 4 shooting, 3 three-point shooting
            Shaq 188 FT's = 32 "and-1", 0 techs, 20 bonus, 136 shooting
            Richmond 21 FT's = 0 "and-1", 2 tech, 6 bonus, 12 shooting, 1 simultaneous
            Walker 20 FT's = 4 "and-1", 0 techs, 0 bonus, 16 shooting

            Kobe and George were the two that had freethrows attempts disallowed by the refs.

            Mike (msg_53) said: "If Lakers have: 176 pts / 156 OReb
            and Shaq has: 57 pts / 54 OReb
            then
            non-Shaq Lakers: 119 pts / 102 OReb

            That would seem to make Shaq weaker at scoring after an OReb than his
            teammates are?"

            Actually, Mike, the Lakers scored 69 points after 54 Shaq Orebs, and the 102 non-Shaq Orebs yielded 107 points.

            You know, the more I think about it, the Laker efficiency is even better than what I've been telling you. 156 Orebs total, but 13 possessions had two Orebs, and 2 possessions had 3 ORebs. So 156 - (13*1) - (2*2) = 139 possessions that had Orebs.

            176 points/ 139 possessions = 1.27 pt/poss.

            For the opponents, 167 Orebs, but 14 possessions had 2 Orebs, 5 possessions had 3 Orebs, and 1 possession had 5 Orebs. So 167 - (14*1) - (5*2) - (1*4) = 139 possessions that had Orebs.

            Opponents 161 points/139 possessions = 1.15 pt/poss
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