McKibbin said: "The official boxscores show Lakers 123 steals, opponent 104 steals. My preliminary numbers from the 14 games are Lakers 109 steals, 67 fastbreak attempts, 83 points. Opponents 86 steals, 59 fastbreak attempts, 82 points. So if we assume the teams averaged 1 point for each non-fastbreak attempt steal that means Lakes 109 steals, 125 points; opponents 86 steals, 109 points. Totals: 195 steals, 234 points or 1.2 points per steal. I realize we can't extrapolate this to the league at large (Laker games may not be representative) but it is interesting."

Dean Oliver replied: "Would be nice if you didn't assume 1 pt for non-fastbreak attempts. Also note that if you use the official count on steals, you have 227 steals and your estimate of 234 points off of it -- pretty close to 1 pt/assist. That's where the potential undercounting is a problem. Maybe "true" steals are worth 1.2 pts, but NBA official steals may be worth only about 1 pt."

Great point. The right, and useful, thing to do is to figure out what an NBA official steal is worth---not what Stu steals are worth. The NBA recorded 227 steals, 32 more than me. Perhaps the best thing is to just give those extra steals the NBA saw the same 1 point an ordinary possession is worth. So now we have 227 steals, resulting in 126 fastbreak attempts yielding 165 points, and 101 non-fastbreak attempts worth 101 points. 227 steals, 266 points, 1.17 pts/stl. Just a thought.

Dean Oliver asked: "How many total "and-1's" have their been for the Laker team? How many total technical foul shots for the team?"

Here's the breakdown for the 14 games. Lakers 421 total FTA's consisting of 11 technicals FT (Kobe 8; Richmond 2; poor Joe Crispin 1), 41 "and-1" FT (Shaq 27; Kobe 7; Samaki 3; Medvedenko, Rob Horry, George, Fox 1 each), and 78 Bonus FT (Kobe 22; Shaq 18; Rob Horry 10; Hunter 8; George 6; Richmond 6; BShaw 4; Fox 2; Penberthy 2). Two threepoint shooters were fouled, Hunter was fouled Flagrantly and Richmond was fouled simultaneously as someone else was making a basket. 282 FT's were from normal two-shot shooting fouls.

Opponents: 311 total FT's consisting of 26 technical FT, 14 "and-1" FT, 56 Bonus FT, 215 shooting FT's (they were fouled once attempting a three).

The refs seem very intent and earnest on calling T's on the Lakes for looking at their opponent, hanging on the rim, swinging elbows, bitching (even when they aren't), and of course defensive 3-sec. A travesty.

I count bonus fouls because, to me, they just don't seem part of the players REAL offensive contribution. It's more like the defense is being over-aggressive and these guys just happened to have the ball, or they are situational (Hack-a-Shaq and end of games). It's not like the defense is trying to prevent a shot in those situations, they just want the ball back.

Dean, your 0.4 factor may be good for teams (although in this sample it's coming out to 0.44), but not individuals.

And regarding offensive fouls, in the 14 charted games the opponents had 359 fouls of which 38 were offensive. The Lakers without Shaq had 245 fouls of which 16 were offensive. Both are MUCH lower percentages than Shaq's 25%. That's why I'm saying Shaq is unique, he's like this outlying data point that skews your results. It's like trying to determine the theoretical 100-year storm for a watershed with only 10 years of rainfall record, and Shaq is the unique monsoonal hurricane that occurred in Year 3.

- --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:

> Great point. The right, and useful, thing to do is to figure out

what an NBA

> official steal is worth---not what Stu steals are worth. The NBA

recorded

> 227 steals, 32 more than me. Perhaps the best thing is to just give

those

> extra steals the NBA saw the same 1 point an ordinary possession is

worth.

> So now we have 227 steals, resulting in 126 fastbreak attempts

yielding 165

> points, and 101 non-fastbreak attempts worth 101 points. 227

steals, 266

> points, 1.17 pts/stl. Just a thought.

Probably a minor point, but you can't really assume 1 pt/ordinary

possession if you also assume 1 pt/all possessions and we're showing> 1pt/stl possession unless steal possessions are a small percentage

of all possessions. 227 steal possessions out of ~14*180~2500

possessions or 10%. So you may use 0.9 pts/non-steal possessions,

subtract 3-4 pts and 262 pts/227 steals = 1.15 pts/stl. Definitely a

minor point. 1 pt/poss doesn't change answer much.

>

the Laker

> Dean Oliver asked: "How many total "and-1's" have their been for

> team? How many total technical foul shots for the team?"

consisting of

>

> Here's the breakdown for the 14 games. Lakers 421 total FTA's

> 11 technicals FT (Kobe 8; Richmond 2; poor Joe Crispin 1), 41 "and-

1" FT

> (Shaq 27; Kobe 7; Samaki 3; Medvedenko, Rob Horry, George, Fox 1

each), and

> 78 Bonus FT (Kobe 22; Shaq 18; Rob Horry 10; Hunter 8; George 6;

Richmond 6;

> BShaw 4; Fox 2; Penberthy 2). Two threepoint shooters were fouled,

Hunter

> was fouled Flagrantly and Richmond was fouled simultaneously as

someone else

> was making a basket. 282 FT's were from normal two-shot shooting

fouls.

>

What's the breakdown on the normal FTA's by player? I'm trying to

fill in the matrix to better estimate what that 0.4 becomes from

player to player. I guess big men would have more and-1's and,

hence, a lower value than 0.4.

> I count bonus fouls because, to me, they just don't seem part of

the players

> REAL offensive contribution. It's more like the defense is being

they are

> over-aggressive and these guys just happened to have the ball, or

> situational (Hack-a-Shaq and end of games). It's not like the

defense is

> trying to prevent a shot in those situations, they just want the

ball back.

In the Laker situation, it seems that a lot of bonus fouls may be to

put Shaq at the line or because the Lakers want Kobe with the ball at

the end of a game they're winning. There is some "real" to it.

>

sample it's

> Dean, your 0.4 factor may be good for teams (although in this

> coming out to 0.44), but not individuals.

You don't even say how you calculate 0.44, but I calculate the same

>

value, so we're on the same page. 0.4 has been checked a couple

times, but not recently. The Lakers are a weird team admittedly.

Frankly, with the emphasis on defense and the increased number of

jump shooters (not necessarily good ones), the number might have gone

up. Also, the Lakers last year were one of those rare teams where my

estimates of net points didn't check out with their real numbers (I

thin. Weird team.

I can start improving the individual estimate of the number if you

fill in those "normal ftas" above.

> And regarding offensive fouls, in the 14 charted games the

opponents had 359

> fouls of which 38 were offensive. The Lakers without Shaq had 245

fouls of

> which 16 were offensive. Both are MUCH lower percentages than

Shaq's 25%.

> That's why I'm saying Shaq is unique, he's like this outlying data

point

> that skews your results. It's like trying to determine the

theoretical

> 100-year storm for a watershed with only 10 years of rainfall

record, and

> Shaq is the unique monsoonal hurricane that occurred in Year 3.

You're not another environmental engineer, are you? Lots of us in

basketball stuff, too....

DeanO - --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:
>

consisting of

> Here's the breakdown for the 14 games. Lakers 421 total FTA's

> 11 technicals FT (Kobe 8; Richmond 2; poor Joe Crispin 1), 41 "and-

1" FT

> (Shaq 27; Kobe 7; Samaki 3; Medvedenko, Rob Horry, George, Fox 1

each), and

> 78 Bonus FT (Kobe 22; Shaq 18; Rob Horry 10; Hunter 8; George 6;

Richmond 6;

> BShaw 4; Fox 2; Penberthy 2). Two threepoint shooters were fouled,

Hunter

> was fouled Flagrantly and Richmond was fouled simultaneously as

someone else

> was making a basket. 282 FT's were from normal two-shot shooting

fouls.

282 + 11 + 41 + 78 + (3 + 1) = 416 <> 421

What did I do wrong? I got the impression that Richmond's foul shot

on the 3 pt case was only one ft. True? - -----Original Message-----

From: deano@...

Sent: Friday, December 07, 2001 6:27 PM

To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com; deano@...

Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Charting Laker games

--- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:

Here's the breakdown for the 14 games. Lakers 421 total FTA's

consisting of 11 technicals FT (Kobe 8; Richmond 2; poor Joe Crispin 1), 41 "and-1" FT (Shaq 27; Kobe 7; Samaki 3; Medvedenko, Rob Horry, George, Fox 1 each), and 78 Bonus FT (Kobe 22; Shaq 18; Rob Horry 10; Hunter 8; George 6; Richmond 6; BShaw 4; Fox 2; Penberthy 2). Two threepoint shooters were fouled, Hunter was fouled Flagrantly and Richmond was fouled simultaneously as someone else was making a basket. 282 FT's were from normal two-shot shooting fouls.

282 + 11 + 41 + 78 + (3 + 1) = 416 <> 421

What did I do wrong? I got the impression that Richmond's foul shot

on the 3 pt case was only one ft. True?

Dean, it should be 282 + 11 + 41 +78 + (6 + 2 + 1) = 421

The three point shooter was fouled twice, the flagrant was a two shot, you got Richmond's right. By the way, in the 14 games the Lakers are only officially credited with 419 FT's because two FT's were disallowed because a Laker player was in the lane too early. I kept them in my numbers because it keeps the number of possessions right.

I've updated the freethrows to include the latest Dallas and Sacramento games (still missing 1st Utah and Houston games). So now for 16 charted games the breakdown is as follows:

Kobe 128 total FT's = 8 "and-1's", 8 techs, 24 bonus, 88 shooting

Fox 21 total FT's = 1 "and-1", 0 techs, 4 bonus, 16 shooting

George 27 FT's = 1 "and-1", 0 techs, 6 bonus, 20 shooting

Horry 24 FT's = 1 "and-1", 0 techs, 12 bonus, 8 shooting, 3 three-point shooting

Hunter 17 FT's = 0 "and-1", 0 techs, 10 bonus, 4 shooting, 3 three-point shooting

Shaq 188 FT's = 32 "and-1", 0 techs, 20 bonus, 136 shooting

Richmond 21 FT's = 0 "and-1", 2 tech, 6 bonus, 12 shooting, 1 simultaneous

Walker 20 FT's = 4 "and-1", 0 techs, 0 bonus, 16 shooting

Kobe and George were the two that had freethrows attempts disallowed by the refs.

Mike (msg_53) said: "If Lakers have: 176 pts / 156 OReb

and Shaq has: 57 pts / 54 OReb

then

non-Shaq Lakers: 119 pts / 102 OReb

That would seem to make Shaq weaker at scoring after an OReb than his

teammates are?"

Actually, Mike, the Lakers scored 69 points after 54 Shaq Orebs, and the 102 non-Shaq Orebs yielded 107 points.

You know, the more I think about it, the Laker efficiency is even better than what I've been telling you. 156 Orebs total, but 13 possessions had two Orebs, and 2 possessions had 3 ORebs. So 156 - (13*1) - (2*2) = 139 possessions that had Orebs.

176 points/ 139 possessions = 1.27 pt/poss.

For the opponents, 167 Orebs, but 14 possessions had 2 Orebs, 5 possessions had 3 Orebs, and 1 possession had 5 Orebs. So 167 - (14*1) - (5*2) - (1*4) = 139 possessions that had Orebs.

Opponents 161 points/139 possessions = 1.15 pt/poss