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Re: clutch performance

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  • Mike Goodman
    Taking my list of the 515 most productive players of all time, I find the following breakdown for career Playoff/Regular Season production rate: PO/RS # %
    Message 1 of 2 , Dec 3, 2001
      Taking my list of the 515 'most productive' players of all time, I
      find the following breakdown for career Playoff/Regular Season
      production rate:

      PO/RS # % of T
      1.10+ 17 .034
      1.05+ 51 .100
      1.00+ 134 .264
      .95+ 263 .518

      So, only 26.4% of all players actually improve their production in
      the playoffs, and only 10% improve by as much as 5%.

      The median ratio is .947.

      The breakdown continues as such:
      PO/RS # % of T
      .95- 244 .482
      .90- 131 .258
      .85- 57 .112
      .80- 35 .069
      .75- 17 .034

      So a player who picks up his game by as much as 10% is as rare as a
      player who's game diminishes by 25%.

      ( 8 of the 515 have no playoff appearances)

      It seems that we could compare playoff production against the median
      of .947 production, to get an idea of playoff over/under-
      achievement. Actually, I think I did that once, and for player
      careers, you still get some irregularities, such as Bill Cartwright,
      who played most of his playoff minutes well past his prime, etc. So,
      a season-by-season analysis might be in order.

      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., bchaikin@a... wrote:
      >
      > i also don't know exactly what most people mean by "clutch", but
      i've found
      > better overall playoff performance versus regular season
      performance a good
      > criteria. a player can always "...take a night off..." during the
      regular
      > season, but in the playoffs that can mean suicide. thus if a
      player's overall
      > per minute numbers are better in the playoffs, plus their shooting
      > percentages, to me that means he's a clutch player...
      >
      > bob chaikin
      > bchaikin@b...
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