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hopefully last update to formula and ratings

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  • Joe
    i revised my performance rating formula again because i thought that i needed to seperate offense and defense and multiply the defensive rating and the
    Message 1 of 1 , Mar 12, 2004
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      i revised my performance rating formula again because i thought that
      i needed to seperate offense and defense and multiply the defensive
      rating and the shooting quality rating only on the appropriate parts.
      sorry this has gotten long and confusing. it has evolved a lot over
      the last week and i soon will stop. hopefully here.

      performance =

      "offense"
      ((((PTS - VOP*FGmsd - .5*VOP*FTmsd)*
      (effective FG% /average effective FG% for that position)) + .8*as +
      VOP*off reb - 1.1*VOP*to) / gamesPlayed) * (36
      minutes / actual avg minutes played)* (1/pace played by team))
      * (top point guard only bonus of 1.05 to 1.10 depending subjective
      evaluation of overall offensive leadership)

      +

      "defense" (+.5*bl + 1.25st + VOP*(total reb-off reb) - 1*pf) /
      gamesPlayed) * (36
      minutes / actual avg minutes played)* (1/pace played by team) *
      (avg. defensive rating of 90 which is same as avg points scored/game
      in league / def.rating from 82 games team defense score while player
      is on court)

      (where VOP is value of possession= 1.04)

      "final" 3/8/04
      Player off def PR rank JH PERrank variance

      garnett,kevin 15.46 11.13 26.60 1 1 0
      duncan,tim 13.30 10.31 23.62 2 2 0
      o'neal,shaquill 15.22 6.17 21.38 3 4 -1
      brand,elton 15.84 4.95 20.79 4 3 1
      boozer,carlos 11.89 7.36 19.25 5 24 -19
      stojakovic,pred 15.19 4.02 19.20 6 9 -3
      malone,karl 11.07 8.10 19.16 7 26 -19
      miller,brad 12.86 5.78 18.64 8
      nowitzki,dirk 12.48 5.92 18.41 9 11 -2
      mcgrady,tracy 14.21 3.99 18.20 10 5 5
      ming,yao 12.37 5.80 18.16 11 10 1
      wallace,ben 6.88 11.17 18.06 12 46 -34
      martin,kenyon 10.49 7.39 17.88 13 39 -26
      abdur-rahim,sha 12.91 4.88 17.80 14 17 -3
      webber,chris 12.71 5.08 17.80 15
      bryant,kobe 14.46 3.25 17.71 16 6 10
      kirilenko,andre 10.89 6.76 17.65 17 8 9
      dampier,erick 11.22 6.38 17.60 18 38 -20
      gasol,pau 12.90 4.68 17.58 19 16 3
      kidd,jason 11.31 6.24 17.55 20 19 1
      o'neal,jermaine 9.94 7.41 17.35 21 14 7
      randolph,zach 11.01 6.21 17.22 22 27 -5
      jamison,antawn 13.95 3.01 16.96 23 21 2
      marshall,donyel 10.00 6.81 16.81 24 18 6
      cassell,sam 15.15 1.48 16.63 25 7 18

      top 4 are basically the same. about 65% of my top25 are within 5 of
      john hollinger's march 8/04 PER ratings. there are some larger
      variances, almost all have to do with big men. weber's rating was
      updated to reflect 4 games and it dropped him back some.

      by seperating offense and defense and applying the shooting quality
      factor and defensive weight only to the appropriate parts, small men
      lost of the some ground they gained under the previous round with the
      first application of the shooting quality factor . oh well. i
      further adjusted assists up to .8 to try to help passers a bit and
      reduce blocks a bit to .5 because i hadnt factored in goaltending.

      i will try to stop there.
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