Re: performance rating and trade value
- Part 2
Here are players I'd rank among the top 50 that Joe didn't rank so
Carter,Vince SF Tor
Billups,Chauncey PG Det
Francis,Steve PG Hou
Ginobili,Emanuel SG SA
Wade,Dwyane PG Mia
Arroyo,Carlos PG Uta
Mashburn,Jamal SF NO
Jones,Eddie SG Mia
Only 8 -- that seems like pretty good corroboration.
But I think your top 50 actually had about 53, including Webber
(with his 1 or 2 games?).
And this short list is all comprised of 'smaller' players. Their
assists are (IMO) undervalued.
Here's a list of other players that I think you've got underrated
(the numeric column is a rough index of the magnitude):
0.83 Kidd,Jason PG NJ
0.83 Iverson,Allen SG Phi
0.83 Davis,Baron PG NO
0.83 Cassell,Sam PG Min
0.84 O'Neal,Jermaine PF Ind
0.87 Ming,Yao C Hou
0.89 Artest,Ron SF Ind
0.89 Duncan,Tim PF SA
0.90 Marbury,Stephon PG NY
0.91 Odom,Lamar SF Mia
Clearly, some people consider assists as deserving much heavier
weight. I believe you have Kidd only #24 (I've got him at #5).
Jermaine, Yao, Duncan all suffer in your list by not being
compensated for their teams' defensive strengths.
And players I'd say you've got 'overrated':
1.20 Finley,Michael SG Dal
1.20 Brown,P.J. PF NO
1.16 Miller,Brad C Sac
1.16 Stojakovic,Predr SF Sac
1.15 Thomas,Kenny PF Phi
1.14 Jamison,Antawn SF Dal
1.14 Boozer,Carlos PF Cle
1.13 Wallace,Ben PF Det
1.12 Marion,Shawn SF Phe
1.12 Nowitzki,Dirk PF Dal
1.11 Dampier,Erick C GS
1.10 Lewis,Rashard SF Sea
A mix of scorers on high-scoring/low-defense teams, and big men.
Finley gets a lot of minutes. No doubt he does some things that are
not measured. But it brings up the old question of per-game vs. per-
minute. Straight per-minute rankings may show Gadzuric and Shaq as
being close to equivalent.
Meanwhile, a player may have played 40 minutes with a bad club last
year; and 20 minutes with a good team this year. So we know he can
go 20, 40, or anything in between.
In general, players are weakened by excessive minutes. It's easier
to score 10 points in 22, than to score 20 in 44.
It is possible to pro-rate players to compensate for disparate
minutes, without being directly proportional.
- I will agree that Manu has been gambling since about mid-season when
he moved to the bench more than he did in the beggining of the season
(in fact much more).
I actually thought he cut down on the gambling A LOT from last
season, but there was a game in New Orleans, when he came off the
bench and did it at a crucial point of the game and might have been a
huge reason the Spurs lost the game. He usually never made those
type of mistakes down the stretch of games.
Either way, I think he is generally a very solid defender. Even
though he gambles a bit these days, he still creates a lot of
turnovers via charges and steals.
And about 2001, I know Bowen was not around. But I was trying to
kind of hint towards the TWIN TOWER approach maybe being the primary
reason an SG/SF always is in the top TENDEX defensive ratings since
2001 (maybe even before that) if we were to check.
If Bowen is the reason for the SG's being held so low, then why is
the SG production PER at a net positive at +2.5? And negative at the
SF position (or was once close to it)? He certainly doesn't put up
LARGE PER and Turkoglu altough is scoring more these days and
grabbing rebounds, I would have to assume Manu, Turk, AND Bowen are
all playing solid defense. If there is any weakness in the D its
with Parker slightly, and even MORE SO at the backup PG position for
Of course the two 7 footer approach helps them all become a little
more risky etc..... But I don't see how Manu and Hedo cannot being
doing solid defensively, when the PER, defensive ratings are solid
across the board? Isn't it safe to conclude the Spurs are getting
reasonable production on both ends with the THREE MAN ROTATIOn at the
SG and SF? And the reason the SF might be low is solely because of
Bowens lack of scoring at times?