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linear weights

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  • Joe
    i read as much of the group s discussion on rebounds, assists, missed shots, etc. as i could digest this evening. in general i m not immediately inclined to
    Message 1 of 1 , Mar 6, 2004
      i read as much of the group's discussion on rebounds, assists, missed
      shots, etc. as i could digest this evening.

      in general i'm not immediately inclined to change my weights given
      the way i look at possessions. if you look at possessions
      differently, then it is a different story from here on. i define a
      shot in a possession as being the last act of that possession, so
      points - missed shots * value of possession seems right- for that
      part of the story. rebounding and scoring after rebounding need not
      be in the valuation of the shooting because in a complete set of
      linear weights it is separately and completely accounted for in the
      valuation of rebounding acts(every rebound is a possession and the
      value of that possession at the time that that play ended- the
      rebound- is the same). the point value given thru the rebounding
      linear weight score fully adds back all the points you got off
      scoring from offensive rebounds (and of course this is true for
      defensive rebounds as well) and in effect it corrects for what seems
      like perhaps an inappropriate deduction in shooting for missed shots.
      (i am sure you could do this clearer in one step as some posts here
      discuss if you consider shot/rebound as being part of the same
      posession which i dont, but i guess i didnt see the need to change
      this somewhat linked way of thinking. between the two possession
      acts and scores i believe i end up with the correct net value of the
      two possession acts- shot then some % rebounded). seeing a rebound as
      starting a new possession, not continuing an existing one, eliminates
      the urge to give offensive and defensive rebounding different scores
      based on expected future action. all future activity is accounted
      for in separate possessions not the previous one. to add the value
      of future actions / other categories to any one linear weight of a
      possession ending/creating act is to start double counting unless you
      do it for every category then you are just creating extra work (and
      would need to fully consider all possible future possession acts not
      just the most desired-scoring). except i then modify from that
      principle in a few cases where you make a strong case that sequence
      of possession actions greatly affect their point value- such as
      giving more value to steals because they lead to better FG% on layups
      or a block being discounted to account for a % going out of bounds or
      frequently back to the other team. you can also consciously go in
      and adjust linear weights to try to take care of some intangibles not
      fully captured by the set of scorable actions- like giving some extra
      credit for assists to try to capture some of the assumed value of non-
      assist generating passing activity by assist generators. this helps
      offset to a small degree my low comparatively weighting of assists as
      derived from the modest extra FG% of assisted shots over nonassisted
      shots as several here also have described here. i think a high
      percentage of NBA credited assists really add nothing to FG%, while a
      few greatly do. on average, i give .5 per assists which i recognize
      is well below most other systems (except my old files suggest dean
      oliver used .37 a long time ago. what is it now? the valuation for
      fouls i used is a little more detailed in determination than simply
      giving it a -1.

      but i'll stop for now and read what might come in response later.
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