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Re: Unguarded 3-pt shot ratio and open shot accuracy

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... That was based on a small sample of looking at the shooters in the 3pt contest vs their percentage in regular season games. I was looking for a rule of
    Message 1 of 2 , Mar 5, 2004
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, dlirag@h... wrote:
      > What percentage of 3-pt shots are of the unguarded type? By
      > unguarded, I refer to the situation where the shooter is just as open
      > after he shoots the three as he was before it.
      >
      > I also want to clarify what Dean meant when he observed that open FG
      > shots had a 10-20% better chance of going in - 10-20% better than the
      > guarded shot percentage or the general FG percentage?

      That was based on a small sample of looking at the shooters in the 3pt
      contest vs their percentage in regular season games. I was looking
      for a rule of thumb kind of number. The first time I did this was in
      1997:

      http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/aa040397.htm

      That was when the line was shorter, so the effect of D would probably
      be a little smaller.

      I did this in 2001 and saw a 10% increase in shooting. I'm pretty
      sure I can find more stats.

      DeanO

      Dean Oliver
      Author, Basketball on Paper
      http://www.basketballonpaper.com
      When basketball teams start playing Moneyball, this is the book
      they'll use!
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