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## Unguarded 3-pt shot ratio and open shot accuracy

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• What percentage of 3-pt shots are of the unguarded type? By unguarded, I refer to the situation where the shooter is just as open after he shoots the three as
Message 1 of 2 , Mar 4, 2004
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What percentage of 3-pt shots are of the unguarded type? By
unguarded, I refer to the situation where the shooter is just as open
after he shoots the three as he was before it.

I also want to clarify what Dean meant when he observed that open FG
shots had a 10-20% better chance of going in - 10-20% better than the
guarded shot percentage or the general FG percentage?
• ... That was based on a small sample of looking at the shooters in the 3pt contest vs their percentage in regular season games. I was looking for a rule of
Message 2 of 2 , Mar 5, 2004
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--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, dlirag@h... wrote:
> What percentage of 3-pt shots are of the unguarded type? By
> unguarded, I refer to the situation where the shooter is just as open
> after he shoots the three as he was before it.
>
> I also want to clarify what Dean meant when he observed that open FG
> shots had a 10-20% better chance of going in - 10-20% better than the
> guarded shot percentage or the general FG percentage?

That was based on a small sample of looking at the shooters in the 3pt
contest vs their percentage in regular season games. I was looking
for a rule of thumb kind of number. The first time I did this was in
1997:

http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/aa040397.htm

That was when the line was shorter, so the effect of D would probably
be a little smaller.

I did this in 2001 and saw a 10% increase in shooting. I'm pretty
sure I can find more stats.

DeanO

Dean Oliver
Author, Basketball on Paper
http://www.basketballonpaper.com
When basketball teams start playing Moneyball, this is the book
they'll use!
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