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Unguarded 3-pt shot ratio and open shot accuracy

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  • dlirag@hotmail.com
    What percentage of 3-pt shots are of the unguarded type? By unguarded, I refer to the situation where the shooter is just as open after he shoots the three as
    Message 1 of 2 , Mar 4 9:24 PM
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      What percentage of 3-pt shots are of the unguarded type? By
      unguarded, I refer to the situation where the shooter is just as open
      after he shoots the three as he was before it.

      I also want to clarify what Dean meant when he observed that open FG
      shots had a 10-20% better chance of going in - 10-20% better than the
      guarded shot percentage or the general FG percentage?
    • Dean Oliver
      ... That was based on a small sample of looking at the shooters in the 3pt contest vs their percentage in regular season games. I was looking for a rule of
      Message 2 of 2 , Mar 5 5:12 AM
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, dlirag@h... wrote:
        > What percentage of 3-pt shots are of the unguarded type? By
        > unguarded, I refer to the situation where the shooter is just as open
        > after he shoots the three as he was before it.
        >
        > I also want to clarify what Dean meant when he observed that open FG
        > shots had a 10-20% better chance of going in - 10-20% better than the
        > guarded shot percentage or the general FG percentage?

        That was based on a small sample of looking at the shooters in the 3pt
        contest vs their percentage in regular season games. I was looking
        for a rule of thumb kind of number. The first time I did this was in
        1997:

        http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/aa040397.htm

        That was when the line was shorter, so the effect of D would probably
        be a little smaller.

        I did this in 2001 and saw a 10% increase in shooting. I'm pretty
        sure I can find more stats.

        DeanO

        Dean Oliver
        Author, Basketball on Paper
        http://www.basketballonpaper.com
        When basketball teams start playing Moneyball, this is the book
        they'll use!
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