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Re: [spam] Re: The Beat, alas, does not go on

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  • bchaikin@aol.com
    ... in the ... there ... This is  a long way of saying, playing time is a variable in the forecast business that needs to be considered, but may have no
    Message 1 of 1 , Feb 5, 2004
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      >     But it seems to me that if statistics can be used successfully in
      > predicting fields such as insurance, surely there are possibilities
      in the
      > realm of sports.
      > What about it, DeanO and the rest of you?  Is there some stat or are
      > some combination of statistics that you use to evaluate the *future* of
      > players or teams?  Do you have a checklist of ten items?

      This is  a long way of saying, "playing time is a variable in the
      forecast business that needs to be considered, but may have no meaning."

      actually the key is playing time....

      Dave Berri and I talk about this.  He believes that we can forecast the next year's performance of individuals with about 80% accuracy, the remainder being associated with things we don't have measurements of, like coaching.

      agreed, but performance on a per minute, or per possession basis, not per game basis. raw stats are hard to predict because minutes are allocated for every reason other than the most productive players getting them, but these (pts/g, reb/g, ast/g, ast/to, etc) are what most people, including those in coaching and management, look at...

      every year, every season, there are players who do not deserve the minutes they get, and others who don't get the minutes they deserve. one reason is coaching, moreover the coach's perogative/preference. the other is good talent sitting behind better starting talent on one team, and bad starting talent on a team that has even worse bench talent. another is team politics - the worse player starting has a guaranteed contract, the better player sitting does not, etc. and then at some point productivity is taken into account...

      why does jason collins get the minutes he does (or his brother for that matter)? why does shawn bradley sit on a team woefully in need of interior defense? why doesn't "...yao ming get more minutes..." (a previous thread)? why do trenton hassell, bruce bowen, or michael curry play? would detroit have been better of last season giving curry's minutes to corliss williamson?...

      the thread of antonio daniels the other day is a prime example - the numbers do indeed show some things can be predicted, but reb/g, pts/g, are dependant on the allocation of minutes, which is strictly a coach/management decision....

      bob chaikin

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