Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: [APBR_analysis] Yao's Conditioning?

Expand Messages
  • Gary Collard
    ... Not to mention get more touches... -- Gary Collard SABR-L Moderator gmcollard@yahoo.com I would ve gone for 2 -- Carolina coach John Fox when asked what
    Message 1 of 15 , Feb 3, 2004
    • 0 Attachment
      wimpds wrote:
      >
      > Can somebody explain why Yao Ming doesn't play more minutes?

      Not to mention get more touches...

      --
      Gary Collard
      SABR-L Moderator
      gmcollard@...

      "I would've gone for 2" -- Carolina coach John Fox when asked what he
      thought of Justin Timberlake exposing Janet Jackson's breast
    • bchaikin@aol.com
      In a message dated 2/3/2004 8:06:33 PM Eastern Standard Time, ... this graph appears to show that in about 1/3 of his games yao ming played 35 or more minutes.
      Message 2 of 15 , Feb 3, 2004
      • 0 Attachment
        In a message dated 2/3/2004 8:06:33 PM Eastern Standard Time, kpelton08@... writes:

        http://www.sonicscentral.com/yaominutes.jpg



        this graph appears to show that in about 1/3 of his games yao ming played 35 or more minutes. he commits fouls at only about 10 per 100 minutes, not unusual for a big man, and about the same as these players who all average more min/g - brian grant, kenyon martin, amare stoudemire, kurt thomas, juwon howard, and i'm sure there are a few others. considering yao ming is as productive (if not more) on both ends of the floor than most if not all of these players, i'm guessing the true reason he does not play more minutes is van gundy simply limiting the floor time of a key but none-the-less 2nd year player....

        it'd be nice to know if he plays most of every 4th qtr, that would be telling evidence that van gundy is indeed saving him for crunch time. maybe roland over at 82games.com keeps track of players' minutes by quarter...

        bob chaikin
        bchaikin@...
      • John Hollinger
        I know for a fact there have been games where he s gone with Taylor the entire fourth quarter. One interesting thing with a study like this is the chicken vs.
        Message 3 of 15 , Feb 6, 2004
        • 0 Attachment
          I know for a fact there have been games where he's gone with Taylor
          the entire fourth quarter.

          One interesting thing with a study like this is the chicken vs. egg
          question -- if we show he plays just as well with more minutes, does
          that mean that it's a genuine fact, or does it mean that Van Gundy
          doesn't play him a lot of minutes if he sees that Yao is playing like
          crap?



          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, bchaikin@a... wrote:
          > In a message dated 2/3/2004 8:06:33 PM Eastern Standard Time,
          > kpelton08@h... writes:
          >
          > > http://www.sonicscentral.com/yaominutes.jpg
          > >
          > >
          >
          > this graph appears to show that in about 1/3 of his games yao ming
          played 35
          > or more minutes. he commits fouls at only about 10 per 100 minutes,
          not
          > unusual for a big man, and about the same as these players who all
          average more
          > min/g - brian grant, kenyon martin, amare stoudemire, kurt thomas,
          juwon howard,
          > and i'm sure there are a few others. considering yao ming is as
          productive (if
          > not more) on both ends of the floor than most if not all of these
          players, i'm
          > guessing the true reason he does not play more minutes is van gundy
          simply
          > limiting the floor time of a key but none-the-less 2nd year
          player....
          >
          > it'd be nice to know if he plays most of every 4th qtr, that would
          be telling
          > evidence that van gundy is indeed saving him for crunch time. maybe
          roland
          > over at 82games.com keeps track of players' minutes by quarter...
          >
          > bob chaikin
          > bchaikin@b...
        • igor eduardo küpfer
          ... From: John Hollinger To: Sent: Friday, February 06, 2004 4:12 PM Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Yao s
          Message 4 of 15 , Feb 6, 2004
          • 0 Attachment
            ----- Original Message -----
            From: "John Hollinger" <alleyoop2@...>
            To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
            Sent: Friday, February 06, 2004 4:12 PM
            Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Yao's Conditioning?


            > I know for a fact there have been games where he's gone with Taylor
            > the entire fourth quarter.
            >
            > One interesting thing with a study like this is the chicken vs. egg
            > question -- if we show he plays just as well with more minutes, does
            > that mean that it's a genuine fact, or does it mean that Van Gundy
            > doesn't play him a lot of minutes if he sees that Yao is playing like
            > crap?
            >

            I believe Van Gundy has been quoted as saying that he was limiting Yao's
            minutes for physical reasons. That is, he wants to limit Yao's exposure to
            potential injury. I don't really think that Yao's conditioning is in
            question, considering how many minutes he played last season between his NBA
            games and his off-season commitment to the national team.

            I began a study of this a couple of months ago, but didn't get far. Here's
            what I have:

            | YAO'S MINUTES | ROCKET's LEAD
            GAME | 1 2 3 4 OT | 1 2 3 4 OT
            -----|---------------------------------------------------
            1 | 9 5 3 3 | 2 6 12 17
            2 | 8 12 8 8 | -9 -1 5 -8
            3 | 8 10 11 0 | -7 -20 -29 -32
            4 | 9 10 9 8 | 1 -7 -5 11
            5 | 10 7 12 5 | 3 6 6 10
            6 | 12 3 7 10 | 0 7 9 20
            7 | 12 5 9 5 | -2 -6 -10 -11
            8 | 9 6 12 9 | 3 -6 -1 5
            9 | 8 10 9 12 10 | -8 -3 2 0 -4
            10 | 7 12 7 12 | 3 10 10 8
            11 | 7 7 9 12 | 3 4 -1 2
            12 | 8 10 9 10 | 11 -3 -7 -7
            13 | 10 7 10 4 | 4 14 7 15

            AVG 9.0 8.0 8.8 7.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 2.3

            The numbers in the Yao's Minutes columns represent the number of minutes he
            played in each quarter. The Rockets Lead numbers are their lead at the end
            of each quarter (a negative number would be a Rockets deficit).

            There's not much to look at there, but you can see that in games where the
            score difference is 5 or less points, Yao plays about 10 minutes in the 4th.
            When the lead is more than 5, he plays 6 minutes in the 4th.

            ed
          • igor eduardo küpfer
            ... NBA ... he ... 4th. ... Er, here I am referring to the score difference at the end of 3 quarters, which I took to be indicative of the closeness of the
            Message 5 of 15 , Feb 6, 2004
            • 0 Attachment
              > ----- Original Message -----
              > From: "John Hollinger" <alleyoop2@...>
              > To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
              > Sent: Friday, February 06, 2004 4:12 PM
              > Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Yao's Conditioning?
              >
              >
              > > I know for a fact there have been games where he's gone with Taylor
              > > the entire fourth quarter.
              > >
              > > One interesting thing with a study like this is the chicken vs. egg
              > > question -- if we show he plays just as well with more minutes, does
              > > that mean that it's a genuine fact, or does it mean that Van Gundy
              > > doesn't play him a lot of minutes if he sees that Yao is playing like
              > > crap?
              > >
              >
              > I believe Van Gundy has been quoted as saying that he was limiting Yao's
              > minutes for physical reasons. That is, he wants to limit Yao's exposure to
              > potential injury. I don't really think that Yao's conditioning is in
              > question, considering how many minutes he played last season between his
              NBA
              > games and his off-season commitment to the national team.
              >
              > I began a study of this a couple of months ago, but didn't get far. Here's
              > what I have:
              >
              > | YAO'S MINUTES | ROCKET's LEAD
              > GAME | 1 2 3 4 OT | 1 2 3 4 OT
              > -----|---------------------------------------------------
              > 1 | 9 5 3 3 | 2 6 12 17
              > 2 | 8 12 8 8 | -9 -1 5 -8
              > 3 | 8 10 11 0 | -7 -20 -29 -32
              > 4 | 9 10 9 8 | 1 -7 -5 11
              > 5 | 10 7 12 5 | 3 6 6 10
              > 6 | 12 3 7 10 | 0 7 9 20
              > 7 | 12 5 9 5 | -2 -6 -10 -11
              > 8 | 9 6 12 9 | 3 -6 -1 5
              > 9 | 8 10 9 12 10 | -8 -3 2 0 -4
              > 10 | 7 12 7 12 | 3 10 10 8
              > 11 | 7 7 9 12 | 3 4 -1 2
              > 12 | 8 10 9 10 | 11 -3 -7 -7
              > 13 | 10 7 10 4 | 4 14 7 15
              >
              > AVG 9.0 8.0 8.8 7.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 2.3
              >
              > The numbers in the Yao's Minutes columns represent the number of minutes
              he
              > played in each quarter. The Rockets Lead numbers are their lead at the end
              > of each quarter (a negative number would be a Rockets deficit).
              >
              > There's not much to look at there, but you can see that in games where the
              > score difference is 5 or less points, Yao plays about 10 minutes in the
              4th.
              > When the lead is more than 5, he plays 6 minutes in the 4th.
              >

              Er, here I am referring to the score difference at the end of 3 quarters,
              which I took to be indicative of the closeness of the game.

              ed
            • McKibbin, Stuart
              ... From: edkupfer@rogers.com Sent: Friday, February 06, 2004 1:35 PM To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com; edkupfer@rogers.com Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re:
              Message 6 of 15 , Feb 6, 2004
              • 0 Attachment
                -----Original Message-----
                From: edkupfer@...
                Sent: Friday, February 06, 2004 1:35 PM
                To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com; edkupfer@...
                Subject: Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Yao's Conditioning?
                I believe Van Gundy has been quoted as saying that he was limiting Yao's
                minutes for physical reasons. That is, he wants to limit Yao's exposure to
                potential injury. I don't really think that Yao's conditioning is in
                question, considering how many minutes he played last season between his NBA
                games and his off-season commitment to the national team.

                ed

                Well, I question his conditioning because I've seen games where the guy can
                barely make it up the floor. Especially faster paced games. He's slow to
                begin with and being tired makes him run about as fast as the Great Wall.
                Obviously, if Yao doesn't get back quickly the defense is weaker, so Van
                Gundy is forced to play him fewer minutes. Anyway, that's what I've seen
                with my own two eyeballs, but Ed's and Kevin's tracking of his minutes and
                production directly contradict me.
                Stuart
              • Michael Tamada
                There s strong support for a conventional story in those stats: close game at end of 3rd quarter == big 4th quarter minutes for Yao blowout game at end of
                Message 7 of 15 , Feb 6, 2004
                • 0 Attachment
                  There's strong support for a conventional story in those stats:

                  close game at end of 3rd quarter ==> big 4th quarter minutes for Yao
                  blowout game at end of 3rd quarter ==> small 4th quarter minutes for Yao

                  I took the absolute value of the 3rd quarter lead/deficit, and regressed Yao's 4th quarter minutes against that. Even with only 13 observations, the regression statistics support the conventional hypothesis (indeed, as Ed points out, simply eyeballing the numbers, this jumps out at you).

                  The regression equation is

                  4th qtr mins = 10.55 - .38*abs(lead)

                  i.e. for every point by which Houston's lead or deficit grows, Yao's minutes diminish by .38 minutes. With a 28 point lead or deficit, we'd expect Yao to play 0 minutes (and lo and behold, in Game 3 Houston had a 29 point deficit and Yao sat).

                  The t-statistic on the estimated coefficient of -.38 is -3.31, with a significance level of p = 0.7%, i.e. significant at better than the 1% level. Pretty good for a sample size of 13. The adjusted r-squared from the regression is .45.


                  This regression benefits from what might be aguably a statistical outlier, that 29-point Game 3 blowout. If we leave that out of the regression, the coefficient estimate stays at around the same value, -.43, but the adjusted r-squared falls to .16 and the t-statistic is -1.77, significant at only the p = 10.7% level.

                  So Game 3 probably makes these results look overly conclusive. On the other hand, it is almost certainly too drastic to literally throw out Game 3, a baby-with-the-bathwater move. Game 3 does provide support for the notion that big leads cause small minutes for Yao, so to totally ignore Game 3 is not a wise course.

                  The regression might be further strengthened by correcting for censoring; it's physically impossible for Yao to play more than 12 minutes in the 4th quarter, and the data around the regression line thus hit a ceiling and flatten out at 12 minutes, making the estimated regression line probably flatter than it should be. And thus our estimates will be a little too low and seemingly lacking in significance.


                  Of course, none of this explains the original question, about why Yao's total minutes are so low. Many other superstars probably get similar 4th quarter treatment (sit during a blowout, play during a close game); why do their minutes per game exceed Yao's by so much?


                  --MKT


                  -----Original Message-----
                  From: igor eduardo küpfer [mailto:edkupfer@...]
                  Sent: Friday, February 06, 2004 1:35 PM

                  I began a study of this a couple of months ago, but didn't get far. Here's
                  what I have:

                  | YAO'S MINUTES | ROCKET's LEAD
                  GAME | 1 2 3 4 OT | 1 2 3 4 OT
                  -----|---------------------------------------------------
                  1 | 9 5 3 3 | 2 6 12 17
                  2 | 8 12 8 8 | -9 -1 5 -8
                  3 | 8 10 11 0 | -7 -20 -29 -32
                  4 | 9 10 9 8 | 1 -7 -5 11
                  5 | 10 7 12 5 | 3 6 6 10
                  6 | 12 3 7 10 | 0 7 9 20
                  7 | 12 5 9 5 | -2 -6 -10 -11
                  8 | 9 6 12 9 | 3 -6 -1 5
                  9 | 8 10 9 12 10 | -8 -3 2 0 -4
                  10 | 7 12 7 12 | 3 10 10 8
                  11 | 7 7 9 12 | 3 4 -1 2
                  12 | 8 10 9 10 | 11 -3 -7 -7
                  13 | 10 7 10 4 | 4 14 7 15

                  AVG 9.0 8.0 8.8 7.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 2.3

                  The numbers in the Yao's Minutes columns represent the number of minutes he
                  played in each quarter. The Rockets Lead numbers are their lead at the end
                  of each quarter (a negative number would be a Rockets deficit).

                  There's not much to look at there, but you can see that in games where the
                  score difference is 5 or less points, Yao plays about 10 minutes in the 4th.
                  When the lead is more than 5, he plays 6 minutes in the 4th.

                  ed




                  Yahoo! Groups Links
                Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.