- Plenty of papers available through...

http://www.csub.edu/~dberri/

Some abstracts and papers at

http://www.csub.edu/%7Edberri/Research.html

--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, bchaikin@a... wrote:

> > Try this:

> >

> > Shot Attempts Points PSA

> > AST 412 448 1.09

> > UN 555 523 0.94

> >

> > Value of assist (by my calculations) 0.15

>

> Still preliminary, but that's pretty close to the difference between

> points per possession and points per play, i.e., the value of an

> offensive rebound.

>

> I have been continuing my conversations with David Berri, the sports

> econ professor from Bakersfield. Using an approach that evaluates

> whether wins come from numerous different stats, he keeps seeing that

> assists have almost no value. That approach is different than this

> one and I've been trying to make a point that probably can be

> clarified just by stats like these (which, as I mentioned before, I

> didn't see in the smaller study I did in the early '90's). I believe

> the above is statistically significant. I'll have to follow up

> sometime to find out what games you were doing, though. You don't

> want it to be just a couple teams.

>

> anyone know if dave berri has any basketball related

thoughts/musings posted

> somewhere on the internet, or in print?... - --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer

<edkupfer@r...> wrote:> After 26 games, here's what it looks like:

Trying to figure out what to make of these numbers.

>

> 2m 2a 2% 3m - 3a 3% ftm - fta ft%

> AST 311 - 570 55% 97 - 252 38% 97 - 142 68%

> UNAST 441 - 1037 43% 20 - 95 21% 239 - 318 75%

>

> DIFF 12% 17% -7%

> p <.001 <.01 ns

I've reduced this chart to one that represents an "average" game in

the sample:

.category. 3pt. 2 pt. FT

"assisted" 4-10 12-22 4-6

unassisted 1-5_ 17-40 9-12

Counting 2 FTA as one 'play':

On 35 "assisted" plays, 40 pts are scored, or 1.143 pts per play

On 51 unassisted plays, 46 pts are scored, at .902 ppp

The difference is .216 ppp

But: In reality, only 16 assists are counted. So, from 16 actual,

counted assists, 40 pts are produced.

Therefore, each assist produces 2.5 points; and the difference is

now 1.585 as the value of each assist.

(The actual difference, from Ed's 2184 plays, is 1.561)

We probably all know that a counted assist is only the 'tip of the

iceberg' which represents all 'good passes' a player executes.

While there have been players (Kevin Porter? Ray Williams?) who have

ONLY passed when an assist was to be had, many players get few

assists, yet are credible passers.

So the assist represents an "estimate" of the number of

good, "assist-worthy" passes a player throws.