Re: Pro Basketball Prospectus
- --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
> Thanks for the suggestion. I also want to include Free throws perThe stuff I report for individuals is typically
> field goal attempt and a few other nuggets, so right now I'm figuring
> out how to fit more crap in that box so I can get all the info I want
> to. Wish me luck.
Turnovers as a percentage of possessions
These are equivalent to the Four Factors I laid out in my book as
defining pretty much every win in basketball. I believe these four
things (offensive and defensive makes 8) explain 98% of the variation
in wins. I've now got a bunch of coaches at various levels using the
team measures. Individual stuff will take longer to be accepted, but
is already headed that way.
Note that the order listed above is the order of importance at the NBA
level (based on a pretty complex analysis of strategy analysis
involving a lot of box scores). Shooting is easily the biggest, not
quite twice as important as turnovers. Turnovers are about twice as
important as getting to the line and offensive rebounds end up a
little closer to turnovers than to getting to the line. This order
appears to differ from league to league to some degree, but I think
shooting always stays at the top, even in ragged HS leagues where
turnovers are really important (though this analysis is much more
difficult because of strong correlation between forced turnovers and
Because shooting is so important, the lack of defensive numbers on how
well guys shut down shooters is a huge gap in statistics.
> --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "fadeawaymike"
> <joeljanssens@h...> wrote:
> > I really like this books. For every player he puts his new
> > stats,psa, ast, to, usg, op, reb rate en per. What I'm missing is
> > the offensive per that he mentions in the first book.
> > He should put that also for every player!
> > In the first book you have the 10 highest rebound rate seasons. I
> > really should like to know what the ten highest offensive per
> > seasons are?
> > So mr Hollinger mention the offensive per for every player in your
> > next prospectus, thank you very much. :-)
- I've bought your book also. First I've read the Prospectus of
Hollinger and after that Basketball on paper. I'v read reviews that
said: the prospectus is good but basketball on paper is better. Well
I don't agree. The analytic methods are there but the conclusions
are sometimes not so strong. For example your rebounding part. You
make a conclusion and than you begin to correct yourself(offensive
rebounds create free throw attempts,...)