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Re: Pro Basketball Prospectus

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... The stuff I report for individuals is typically Eff FG% Turnovers as a percentage of possessions Eff OR% FTM/FGA These are equivalent to the Four Factors I
    Message 1 of 39 , Feb 1, 2004
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
      <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
      > Thanks for the suggestion. I also want to include Free throws per
      > field goal attempt and a few other nuggets, so right now I'm figuring
      > out how to fit more crap in that box so I can get all the info I want
      > to. Wish me luck.
      >

      The stuff I report for individuals is typically

      Eff FG%
      Turnovers as a percentage of possessions
      Eff OR%
      FTM/FGA

      These are equivalent to the Four Factors I laid out in my book as
      defining pretty much every win in basketball. I believe these four
      things (offensive and defensive makes 8) explain 98% of the variation
      in wins. I've now got a bunch of coaches at various levels using the
      team measures. Individual stuff will take longer to be accepted, but
      is already headed that way.

      Note that the order listed above is the order of importance at the NBA
      level (based on a pretty complex analysis of strategy analysis
      involving a lot of box scores). Shooting is easily the biggest, not
      quite twice as important as turnovers. Turnovers are about twice as
      important as getting to the line and offensive rebounds end up a
      little closer to turnovers than to getting to the line. This order
      appears to differ from league to league to some degree, but I think
      shooting always stays at the top, even in ragged HS leagues where
      turnovers are really important (though this analysis is much more
      difficult because of strong correlation between forced turnovers and
      shooting percentage).

      Because shooting is so important, the lack of defensive numbers on how
      well guys shut down shooters is a huge gap in statistics.

      DeanO
      www.basketballonpaper.com


      >
      >
      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "fadeawaymike"
      > <joeljanssens@h...> wrote:
      > > I really like this books. For every player he puts his new
      > > stats,psa, ast, to, usg, op, reb rate en per. What I'm missing is
      > > the offensive per that he mentions in the first book.
      > >
      > > He should put that also for every player!
      > >
      > > In the first book you have the 10 highest rebound rate seasons. I
      > > really should like to know what the ten highest offensive per
      > > seasons are?
      > >
      > > So mr Hollinger mention the offensive per for every player in your
      > > next prospectus, thank you very much. :-)
    • fadeawaymike
      I ve bought your book also. First I ve read the Prospectus of Hollinger and after that Basketball on paper. I v read reviews that said: the prospectus is good
      Message 39 of 39 , Feb 1, 2004
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        I've bought your book also. First I've read the Prospectus of
        Hollinger and after that Basketball on paper. I'v read reviews that
        said: the prospectus is good but basketball on paper is better. Well
        I don't agree. The analytic methods are there but the conclusions
        are sometimes not so strong. For example your rebounding part. You
        make a conclusion and than you begin to correct yourself(offensive
        rebounds create free throw attempts,...)
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