Tennis players better at detecting hot hands?
- This article, from the NYTimes, covers some interesting topics but tends to jumble them. The main theme is that human beings may instinctively follow Bayes' Rule when making decisions under uncertainty -- which is hardly news.
But there are some interesting examples cited, especially a study by a couple of economists about tennis players hitting to their opponents' forehands and backhands. Tennis players have strong incentives to try to predict where their opponents will hit the ball, and equally strong incentives to avoid hitting in predictably streaky ways (including avoiding "cold streaks" in which they predictably hit to the forehand side after hitting to the backhand side).
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Subconsciously, Athletes May Play Like Statisticians
By DAVID LEONHARDT
Published: January 20, 2004
(Evidently the NYTimes publishes tomorrow's news today.)