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Re: Well, admittedly the name Amos Tversky didn't ring a bell, so I ...

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  • Mike G
    ... wrote: ? ... 3ms 2ms 1ms all 1md 2md 3md .88 .73 .71 .62 .57 .58 .51 -.142** Ed,
    Message 1 of 27 , Jan 8, 2004
      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer
      <igorkupfer@r...> wrote:
      > ...found one statistically significant instance of a cold streaky
      > players: Darryl Dawkins's 80-81 season....> from Gilovich et al.:
      > Probability of Making a Shot Conditioned on the Outcome of
      >Previous Shots

      3ms 2ms 1ms all 1md 2md 3md
      .88 .73 .71 .62 .57 .58 .51 -.142**

      Ed, I've inserted "column headers" over Dawkins' numbers. I hope I
      got them right.

      This situation seemed mighty curious to me. Why did Darryl shoot
      almost 90% after 3 missed shots?

      My source shows that he averaged just over 9 FGA per game, in '81.

      9 FGA is a rather finite number; it's also hard to hit 62% of 9

      Let's suppose Darryl's average game is 8 FGA, with 5 made (.625
      shooting). That leaves 3 misses per game.

      After 1 made shot, he's 4-7 (.571) for the remainder of the sample,
      for this game.

      After 1 missed shot, he's 5-7 (.714).

      These numbers are startlingly close to the above "revelations" about
      his inverted hot hand.

      Consider a game in which the guy is 2-3. After his miss, there is
      0% chance of a miss. After a hit, the chances are 50%.

      Dawkins was a high-%, low-volume shooter. As such, he serves the
      purpose of refuting the "hot hand"; and then he serves to spoil the

      If you evaluate the 3-point-shootout charts (subtracting the miss/
      make from the sample totals), you might find a similar self-
      contradiction. The samples are bigger, but as expected, the
      conclusions are less dramatic.

      > The column headers represent each player's FG% in the specified
      > after 3 missed shots, after two misses, etc. Notice that none of
      the players
      > have a positive r -- showing that these players tended to shoot
      > after making shots, and better after missing shots, the opposite
      of the
      > hot-hand theory. Of course, none of those correlations were
      > significant, except for Dawkins.
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