- --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer

<igorkupfer@r...> wrote:>

didn't

> ----- Original Message -----

> From: "Mike G" <msg_53@h...>

> To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>

> Sent: Monday, December 29, 2003 2:50 PM

> Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Well, admittedly the name Amos Tversky

> ring a bell, so I ...

Maybe

> > Perhaps a player can experience a Very Hot Hand, and pour in 15

> > points in a quarter, and end up shooting 10-22 for the game.

> > he attracted defensive adjustments, or took it too far and

attempted

> > wild shots. "Hot" may not completely come through in the box

score.

> >

not

> > DeanO flatly stated that Mr. Tversky had shown the Hot Hand does

> > exist. Then he described his own personal experience with it. I

paper,

> > think maybe there's a contradiction.

> >

>

> I can't believe Tversky would ever say that. In the Gilovich et al.

> he and his colleagues went to some lengths to detect a hot hand,

and found

> nothing (well, they found one cold hand).

They found statistical evidence of a cold streak?

- --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer

<igorkupfer@r...> wrote:

?>

3ms 2ms 1ms all 1md 2md 3md

> ...found one statistically significant instance of a cold streaky

> players: Darryl Dawkins's 80-81 season....> from Gilovich et al.:

>

> Probability of Making a Shot Conditioned on the Outcome of

>Previous Shots

>Dawkins

.88 .73 .71 .62 .57 .58 .51 -.142**

Ed, I've inserted "column headers" over Dawkins' numbers. I hope I

got them right.

This situation seemed mighty curious to me. Why did Darryl shoot

almost 90% after 3 missed shots?

My source shows that he averaged just over 9 FGA per game, in '81.

9 FGA is a rather finite number; it's also hard to hit 62% of 9

shots.

Let's suppose Darryl's average game is 8 FGA, with 5 made (.625

shooting). That leaves 3 misses per game.

After 1 made shot, he's 4-7 (.571) for the remainder of the sample,

for this game.

After 1 missed shot, he's 5-7 (.714).

These numbers are startlingly close to the above "revelations" about

his inverted hot hand.

Consider a game in which the guy is 2-3. After his miss, there is

0% chance of a miss. After a hit, the chances are 50%.

Dawkins was a high-%, low-volume shooter. As such, he serves the

purpose of refuting the "hot hand"; and then he serves to spoil the

party.

If you evaluate the 3-point-shootout charts (subtracting the miss/

make from the sample totals), you might find a similar self-

contradiction. The samples are bigger, but as expected, the

conclusions are less dramatic.

> The column headers represent each player's FG% in the specified

situations;

> after 3 missed shots, after two misses, etc. Notice that none of

the players

> have a positive r -- showing that these players tended to shoot

_worse_

> after making shots, and better after missing shots, the opposite

of the

> hot-hand theory. Of course, none of those correlations were

statistically

> significant, except for Dawkins.