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Re: Tendex rating

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  • Mike Goodman
    ... David Robinson is probably a great person, as well as a colossal figure in the history of the game. But: He left a clue to his attitude in an interview I
    Message 1 of 6 , Nov 3, 2001
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
      .........
      > Hmm, one of the more controversial subjects here, I think, is the
      > Admiral. I heard more complaints about him being in the NBA Top 50
      > than about anyone else. No killer instinct, they said.
      >

      David Robinson is probably a great person, as well as a colossal
      figure in the history of the game.
      But:
      He left a clue to his attitude in an interview I saw some years ago.
      Invoking his Christian ideals, he said his faith in God elevates his
      game; and that (quoting from memory) "when going up against an
      Olajuwon or a Robert Horry, I feel like David against Goliath..."
      Eh?
      In other words, he doesn't feel physically superior to Robert Horry?

      > How has the Admiral performed in the playoffs relative to the
      regular
      > season, then relative to other people? Has he fallen off much more
      > than others in the playoffs? .......


      Per-36-minute standardized equivalents for David Robinson, career

      Games Min. Pct. Sco. Reb. Ast PF Stl TO Blk Total
      Regular 845 35.8 .570 26.5 11.7 2.8 3.1 1.5 2.7 3.3 45.7
      Playoff 96 37.5 .532 22.8 12.2 2.8 3.4 1.4 2.6 2.9 41.8

      The ratio of this playoff rate to regular season rate is .915.
      The "average" playoff rate is around .940 (for 515 alltime players).

      > Mike -- this statement:
      >
      > > What makes David over-the-hill is that he cannot produce at that
      > high
      > > rate for as many minutes as before.
      >
      > The implication is that people can be as good, as efficient as they
      > get older, but just not as long. Was his "rate" (per minute) as
      high
      > before as it is now? Any sense for how this goes down with age
      > relative to minutes played?
      >
      > Dean Oliver
      > Journal of Basketball Studies

      It depends on the player, the team situation, and the coach. Popovich
      may be "babying" DRob by using him only 30 mpg, but it has been
      several years now since he has had back problems and other ailments.
      Jordan seems willing to go 40 minutes at age 38, but that is just
      another chapter-in-the-making of a unique case.
      Per-minute rates are down for any player past his prime. The more
      involved issue is : how to get the most production. Over the course
      of a whole season (playoffs particularly), and over the course of a
      career.
    • Dean Oliver
      ... stuff? ;) But ... Hey, going to Caltech means I know the formulas, how to derive them from first principles, what all the little math symbols mean, and
      Message 2 of 6 , Nov 3, 2001
        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Michael K. Tamada" <tamada@o...> wrote:
        >
        > Hey didn't you go to Caltech and shouldn't you know this
        stuff? ;) But
        > you did nail the correct answer to the ellipse modeller: Kepler.
        >

        Hey, going to Caltech means I know the formulas, how to derive them
        from first principles, what all the little math symbols mean, and how
        to go 40 hours without sleeping. It doesn't mean I know the names of
        the famous dead guys. Heck, by going to Caltech, I have a right to
        forget names.

        >
        > I'm not sure about this one. Because an overly "conservative" list
        of
        > good defensive players will STILL get arguments -- from people who
        > complain that the list left out players X, Y, and Z, who are great
        > defenders.
        >
        > It's analogous to statistics: you can be "conservative" and
        minimize the
        > probability of a Type I error by choosing a small significance
        level. But
        > in doing so, you are automatically raising the probability of a
        Type II
        > error.
        >

        This is pretty much my point. In policy making, a policy maker
        really wants to reduce one of those types of errors. Usually the
        policy makers don't care about the cost-benefit of Type I vs. Type II
        errors. Their job is minimize one type and fight with everyone else
        who wants to minimize the other type.

        Not sure how that relates to any hoops stuff we're doing right now,
        but it might in the future, when we start using all those funky math
        symbols.

        > Well there's another kind of consistency, one which is a good thing
        to
        > have: logical self-consistency. E.g. rating systems should avoid
        > double-counting (unless there is a reason to put a heavy weight on
        that
        > variable).

        That's true and a good . I can add that to the routine speech I give
        at work. Then when my people look at me funny, I can blame it on you.

        I would phrase what you're talking about a little differently here,
        though. A method makes assumptions at the start and those
        assumptions should remain true at the end. Thinking off the top of
        my head -- if Tendex assumes all those things to be worth one point,
        shouldn't they all be worth one point at the end, too? Does this
        mean Tendex should add up to points scored?

        I know all the arguments pro and con with Tendex. I always point out
        that Tendex, when applied to teams has only about a 70-80%
        correlation with winning percentage. Which means it's not terribly
        reliable for predicting winning teams and probably no more reliable
        for predicting winning players. I also don't like the fact that it
        really just encourages a lot of shooting. I don't know how well
        Tendex correlates with points scored. But unlike baseball, where
        position players are pretty much responsible for offense and pitchers
        for defense, basketball players are responsible for both. That's why
        I try to keep offensive and defensive contributions separate for
        individuals. Doug Steele has an offensive and defensive Tendex
        rating based on some conversations we had in '94. It was a start.

        DeanO
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