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Re: Scoring points vs Low FG%

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  • Kevin Pelton
    ... http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_6419.shtml There s my review. Admittedly, you d probably get just as much out of reading DeanO s chapter summaries at
    Message 1 of 7 , Jan 1, 2004
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      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Franklin X" <xeifrank@y...>
      wrote:
      > Where can I find your book at? and read a review?

      http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_6419.shtml

      There's my review. Admittedly, you'd probably get just as much out
      of reading DeanO's chapter summaries at www.basketballonpaper.com.

      As MikeG said in response to your questions, that's what we're here
      to discuss. DeanO did outstanding work in his book modeling how
      efficiency changes with changes in workload, so to speak, but his
      models remain pretty theoretical. The fact is that most players
      stick to their roles pretty consistently, and we don't have any lab
      in which to experiment with Derek Fisher being a go-to guy on a
      night-in, night-out basis.

      The value of assists? To get a legitimate answer would probably
      require at least a season-long or league-wide study where volunteers
      tracked whether unmade shots would have been credited an assist or
      not. Ask DeanO how difficult that would be.
    • Michael Tamada
      ... From: Kevin Pelton [mailto:kpelton08@hotmail.com] Sent: Thursday, January 01, 2004 10:26 AM ... I still haven t finished reading DeanO s book, in fact I m
      Message 2 of 7 , Jan 2, 2004
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        -----Original Message-----
        From: Kevin Pelton [mailto:kpelton08@...]
        Sent: Thursday, January 01, 2004 10:26 AM

        >> --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Franklin X" <xeifrank@y...>
        >wrote:
        >> Where can I find your book at? and read a review?
        >
        >http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_6419.shtml
        >
        >There's my review. Admittedly, you'd probably get just as much out
        >of reading DeanO's chapter summaries at www.basketballonpaper.com.

        I still haven't finished reading DeanO's book, in fact I'm still
        on chapter one, but as someone familiar with his work at the
        Journal of Basketball Studies and having read some of his
        chapters in preliminary form, I will say that Dean Oliver has
        done the best work of mathematically modelling basketball that
        I've seen.

        The one modification I would suggest to KevinP's review: early
        on he lists DeanO's experience and qualifications, but doesn't
        mention his work for (or with) the WNBA on Project Defensive
        Scoresheet. KevinP does talk about it at length later on in
        the review, but I think it's worth mentioning early on, because
        it was a project noteworthy both for its innovation and its high
        level (granted the WNBA isn't exactly the NBA or even NCAA Mens
        B-ball, but it's the highest womens pro league in the country)

        >As MikeG said in response to your questions, that's what we're here
        >to discuss. DeanO did outstanding work in his book modeling how
        >efficiency changes with changes in workload, so to speak, but his
        >models remain pretty theoretical. The fact is that most players
        >stick to their roles pretty consistently, and we don't have any lab
        >in which to experiment with Derek Fisher being a go-to guy on a
        >night-in, night-out basis.
        >
        >The value of assists? To get a legitimate answer would probably
        >require at least a season-long or league-wide study where volunteers
        >tracked whether unmade shots would have been credited an assist or
        >not. Ask DeanO how difficult that would be.

        This was a question I was going to ask Dean privately but I'll
        ask it publicly instead: I'm still in the chapter in which he
        describes his notation for recording play-by-play info. Assisted
        baskets get a double plus "++" whereas unassisted ones get a single
        plus "+". Missed FGs get a minus "-".

        What if we recorded "missed FGs which would've been credited with
        an assist" as double minuses "--". And for that matter, extend a
        similar treatment to FTs (e.g. the PG makes a great pass, the
        shooter gets fouled and sinks two FTs, no assist is given, even though
        for statistical modelling purposes, one ought to be). The doubling
        notation wouldn't mesh well with DeanO's notation for FTs, so some
        other sort of notation would be needed.

        I suspect that I already know the answer to my question: the
        information could be encoded easily enough, the hard part would be,
        in the frenzy of a game, deciding which shots or FTs were assist-worthy
        or not, and having time to write down the identities of the passers.

        But if we recorded those "missing assists" (the ones for both missed
        FG attempts, and the ones associated with FTs), we'd have enough
        information to get a pretty good estimate of the value of an assist
        on average, and of a playmaker's contributions.



        While I'm at it, here's an even more impossible request: multiple
        assists for some baskets ... I think ice hockey does this. It's
        rare enough in basketball so that this is largely irrelevant, but
        every once in awhile there's a play where a good pass leads to an
        easy pass for a dunk: and the guy who made the easy pass gets
        the assist, but the play was really started by the first good pass.

        Multiple responsibility for turnovers is another item on my wish
        list: usually it's the passer's fault, but sometimes it's the
        receiver's fault and I'm not sure that official NBA stats properly
        assign the responsibility, especially in cases where it's a legitimately
        mixed responsibility. Having an Olden or an Olowakandi (or an
        Olumide Oyedeji -- stonehanded "oh-oh" players all) on a team
        has to have a negative effect on a PG's Assist:TO ratio.

        This was one of the great pleasures of doing DeanO's defensive
        scoresheets: when assigning responsibility for causing a turnover,
        we were free to list two players if appropriate (e.g. the player
        who deflected the pass, and the one who picked up the deflection).



        --MKT
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