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Scoring points vs Low FG%

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  • Franklin X
    Many NBA players who get recognized for scoring alot of points, also shoot a very low field goal percentage. At what point does this type of player, actually
    Message 1 of 7 , Dec 29, 2003
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      Many NBA players who get recognized for scoring alot of points, also
      shoot a very low field goal percentage.

      At what point does this type of player, actually hurt his team? When
      his FG% drops below the average of the rest of his team?

      If Iverson shoots 12 out of 30 and gets his 30+ points, but a
      teammate shoots 4 out 6, which is more valuable to a team that shoots
      on the average 40% from the field?

      And does this mean that the player who shot 4 out 6, if he were to
      take 12 shots, would've made 8 out of 12?

      vr,

      Xei
    • Dean Oliver
      ... also ... When ... shoots ... This is very much the subject of Chp 19 in my book. The answer is, It depends. Iverson is a prominent example in that
      Message 2 of 7 , Dec 29, 2003
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Franklin X" <xeifrank@y...>
        wrote:
        > Many NBA players who get recognized for scoring alot of points,
        also
        > shoot a very low field goal percentage.
        >
        > At what point does this type of player, actually hurt his team?
        When
        > his FG% drops below the average of the rest of his team?
        >
        > If Iverson shoots 12 out of 30 and gets his 30+ points, but a
        > teammate shoots 4 out 6, which is more valuable to a team that
        shoots
        > on the average 40% from the field?
        >
        > And does this mean that the player who shot 4 out 6, if he were to
        > take 12 shots, would've made 8 out of 12?

        This is very much the subject of Chp 19 in my book. The answer is,
        It depends. Iverson is a prominent example in that chapter,
        actually. His role is different on his Philly team than on the
        Olympic qualifying team and it should be. Hard and fast rules are
        tough to identify, but that chapter shows how to optimally use
        players whether they are 4/6 or 12/30. It uses a lot of pictures to
        make the point, so it's tough to fully summarize here...

        In answer to your question of whether a guy who goes 4/6 would go
        8/12 -- Unlikely. In the spirit of your question, that is. A guy
        who goes 4/6 in 20 minutes may go 8/12 in 40 minutes, but they're
        unlikely to go 8/12 in 20 minutes. I look at it in terms of the
        percentage of a team's possessions that a player uses. On average, a
        player uses 20% (or 1/5th) of a team's possessions. Iverson can go
        higher without significant declines in efficiency (though he doesn't
        start high). Steve Kerr is very efficient, but couldn't increase his
        utilization without big drops in efficiency.


        DeanO
      • John Hollinger
        Another note on Iverson: He gets used this way a lot because his FG% is so low and he shoots so much, but he gets to the line *SO* often that in two of the
        Message 3 of 7 , Dec 29, 2003
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          Another note on Iverson: He gets used this way a lot because his FG%
          is so low and he shoots so much, but he gets to the line *SO* often
          that in two of the past three years his rate of points per shot
          attempt has been near the league average.



          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
          wrote:
          > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Franklin X" <xeifrank@y...>
          > wrote:
          > > Many NBA players who get recognized for scoring alot of points,
          > also
          > > shoot a very low field goal percentage.
          > >
          > > At what point does this type of player, actually hurt his team?
          > When
          > > his FG% drops below the average of the rest of his team?
          > >
          > > If Iverson shoots 12 out of 30 and gets his 30+ points, but a
          > > teammate shoots 4 out 6, which is more valuable to a team that
          > shoots
          > > on the average 40% from the field?
          > >
          > > And does this mean that the player who shot 4 out 6, if he were
          to
          > > take 12 shots, would've made 8 out of 12?
          >
          > This is very much the subject of Chp 19 in my book. The answer is,
          > It depends. Iverson is a prominent example in that chapter,
          > actually. His role is different on his Philly team than on the
          > Olympic qualifying team and it should be. Hard and fast rules are
          > tough to identify, but that chapter shows how to optimally use
          > players whether they are 4/6 or 12/30. It uses a lot of pictures
          to
          > make the point, so it's tough to fully summarize here...
          >
          > In answer to your question of whether a guy who goes 4/6 would go
          > 8/12 -- Unlikely. In the spirit of your question, that is. A guy
          > who goes 4/6 in 20 minutes may go 8/12 in 40 minutes, but they're
          > unlikely to go 8/12 in 20 minutes. I look at it in terms of the
          > percentage of a team's possessions that a player uses. On average,
          a
          > player uses 20% (or 1/5th) of a team's possessions. Iverson can go
          > higher without significant declines in efficiency (though he
          doesn't
          > start high). Steve Kerr is very efficient, but couldn't increase
          his
          > utilization without big drops in efficiency.
          >
          >
          > DeanO
        • Franklin X
          Where can I find your book at? and read a review? vr, Xei ... to ... to ... a ... doesn t ... his
          Message 4 of 7 , Dec 30, 2003
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            Where can I find your book at? and read a review?

            vr,

            Xei

            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
            wrote:
            > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Franklin X" <xeifrank@y...>
            > wrote:
            > > Many NBA players who get recognized for scoring alot of points,
            > also
            > > shoot a very low field goal percentage.
            > >
            > > At what point does this type of player, actually hurt his team?
            > When
            > > his FG% drops below the average of the rest of his team?
            > >
            > > If Iverson shoots 12 out of 30 and gets his 30+ points, but a
            > > teammate shoots 4 out 6, which is more valuable to a team that
            > shoots
            > > on the average 40% from the field?
            > >
            > > And does this mean that the player who shot 4 out 6, if he were
            to
            > > take 12 shots, would've made 8 out of 12?
            >
            > This is very much the subject of Chp 19 in my book. The answer is,
            > It depends. Iverson is a prominent example in that chapter,
            > actually. His role is different on his Philly team than on the
            > Olympic qualifying team and it should be. Hard and fast rules are
            > tough to identify, but that chapter shows how to optimally use
            > players whether they are 4/6 or 12/30. It uses a lot of pictures
            to
            > make the point, so it's tough to fully summarize here...
            >
            > In answer to your question of whether a guy who goes 4/6 would go
            > 8/12 -- Unlikely. In the spirit of your question, that is. A guy
            > who goes 4/6 in 20 minutes may go 8/12 in 40 minutes, but they're
            > unlikely to go 8/12 in 20 minutes. I look at it in terms of the
            > percentage of a team's possessions that a player uses. On average,
            a
            > player uses 20% (or 1/5th) of a team's possessions. Iverson can go
            > higher without significant declines in efficiency (though he
            doesn't
            > start high). Steve Kerr is very efficient, but couldn't increase
            his
            > utilization without big drops in efficiency.
            >
            >
            > DeanO
          • Charlie Board
            ... http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1574886878/qid=1072904559/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/102-8978730-0397749?v=glance&s=books I d suggest jumping on the
            Message 5 of 7 , Dec 31, 2003
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              --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Franklin X" <xeifrank@y...> wrote:
              > Where can I find your book at? and read a review?
              >

              http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1574886878/qid=1072904559/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/102-8978730-0397749?v=glance&s=books

              I'd suggest jumping on the "combo" deal combining Dean & John's
              books....

              > vr,
              >
              > Xei
              >
              > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
              > wrote:
              > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Franklin X" <xeifrank@y...>
              > > wrote:
              > > > Many NBA players who get recognized for scoring alot of points,
              > > also
              > > > shoot a very low field goal percentage.
              > > >
              > > > At what point does this type of player, actually hurt his team?
              > > When
              > > > his FG% drops below the average of the rest of his team?
              > > >
              > > > If Iverson shoots 12 out of 30 and gets his 30+ points, but a
              > > > teammate shoots 4 out 6, which is more valuable to a team that
              > > shoots
              > > > on the average 40% from the field?
              > > >
              > > > And does this mean that the player who shot 4 out 6, if he were
              > to
              > > > take 12 shots, would've made 8 out of 12?
              > >
              > > This is very much the subject of Chp 19 in my book. The answer is,
              > > It depends. Iverson is a prominent example in that chapter,
              > > actually. His role is different on his Philly team than on the
              > > Olympic qualifying team and it should be. Hard and fast rules are
              > > tough to identify, but that chapter shows how to optimally use
              > > players whether they are 4/6 or 12/30. It uses a lot of pictures
              > to
              > > make the point, so it's tough to fully summarize here...
              > >
              > > In answer to your question of whether a guy who goes 4/6 would go
              > > 8/12 -- Unlikely. In the spirit of your question, that is. A guy
              > > who goes 4/6 in 20 minutes may go 8/12 in 40 minutes, but they're
              > > unlikely to go 8/12 in 20 minutes. I look at it in terms of the
              > > percentage of a team's possessions that a player uses. On average,
              > a
              > > player uses 20% (or 1/5th) of a team's possessions. Iverson can go
              > > higher without significant declines in efficiency (though he
              > doesn't
              > > start high). Steve Kerr is very efficient, but couldn't increase
              > his
              > > utilization without big drops in efficiency.
              > >
              > >
              > > DeanO
            • Kevin Pelton
              ... http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_6419.shtml There s my review. Admittedly, you d probably get just as much out of reading DeanO s chapter summaries at
              Message 6 of 7 , Jan 1, 2004
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                > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Franklin X" <xeifrank@y...>
                wrote:
                > Where can I find your book at? and read a review?

                http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_6419.shtml

                There's my review. Admittedly, you'd probably get just as much out
                of reading DeanO's chapter summaries at www.basketballonpaper.com.

                As MikeG said in response to your questions, that's what we're here
                to discuss. DeanO did outstanding work in his book modeling how
                efficiency changes with changes in workload, so to speak, but his
                models remain pretty theoretical. The fact is that most players
                stick to their roles pretty consistently, and we don't have any lab
                in which to experiment with Derek Fisher being a go-to guy on a
                night-in, night-out basis.

                The value of assists? To get a legitimate answer would probably
                require at least a season-long or league-wide study where volunteers
                tracked whether unmade shots would have been credited an assist or
                not. Ask DeanO how difficult that would be.
              • Michael Tamada
                ... From: Kevin Pelton [mailto:kpelton08@hotmail.com] Sent: Thursday, January 01, 2004 10:26 AM ... I still haven t finished reading DeanO s book, in fact I m
                Message 7 of 7 , Jan 2, 2004
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                  -----Original Message-----
                  From: Kevin Pelton [mailto:kpelton08@...]
                  Sent: Thursday, January 01, 2004 10:26 AM

                  >> --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Franklin X" <xeifrank@y...>
                  >wrote:
                  >> Where can I find your book at? and read a review?
                  >
                  >http://www.hoopsworld.com/article_6419.shtml
                  >
                  >There's my review. Admittedly, you'd probably get just as much out
                  >of reading DeanO's chapter summaries at www.basketballonpaper.com.

                  I still haven't finished reading DeanO's book, in fact I'm still
                  on chapter one, but as someone familiar with his work at the
                  Journal of Basketball Studies and having read some of his
                  chapters in preliminary form, I will say that Dean Oliver has
                  done the best work of mathematically modelling basketball that
                  I've seen.

                  The one modification I would suggest to KevinP's review: early
                  on he lists DeanO's experience and qualifications, but doesn't
                  mention his work for (or with) the WNBA on Project Defensive
                  Scoresheet. KevinP does talk about it at length later on in
                  the review, but I think it's worth mentioning early on, because
                  it was a project noteworthy both for its innovation and its high
                  level (granted the WNBA isn't exactly the NBA or even NCAA Mens
                  B-ball, but it's the highest womens pro league in the country)

                  >As MikeG said in response to your questions, that's what we're here
                  >to discuss. DeanO did outstanding work in his book modeling how
                  >efficiency changes with changes in workload, so to speak, but his
                  >models remain pretty theoretical. The fact is that most players
                  >stick to their roles pretty consistently, and we don't have any lab
                  >in which to experiment with Derek Fisher being a go-to guy on a
                  >night-in, night-out basis.
                  >
                  >The value of assists? To get a legitimate answer would probably
                  >require at least a season-long or league-wide study where volunteers
                  >tracked whether unmade shots would have been credited an assist or
                  >not. Ask DeanO how difficult that would be.

                  This was a question I was going to ask Dean privately but I'll
                  ask it publicly instead: I'm still in the chapter in which he
                  describes his notation for recording play-by-play info. Assisted
                  baskets get a double plus "++" whereas unassisted ones get a single
                  plus "+". Missed FGs get a minus "-".

                  What if we recorded "missed FGs which would've been credited with
                  an assist" as double minuses "--". And for that matter, extend a
                  similar treatment to FTs (e.g. the PG makes a great pass, the
                  shooter gets fouled and sinks two FTs, no assist is given, even though
                  for statistical modelling purposes, one ought to be). The doubling
                  notation wouldn't mesh well with DeanO's notation for FTs, so some
                  other sort of notation would be needed.

                  I suspect that I already know the answer to my question: the
                  information could be encoded easily enough, the hard part would be,
                  in the frenzy of a game, deciding which shots or FTs were assist-worthy
                  or not, and having time to write down the identities of the passers.

                  But if we recorded those "missing assists" (the ones for both missed
                  FG attempts, and the ones associated with FTs), we'd have enough
                  information to get a pretty good estimate of the value of an assist
                  on average, and of a playmaker's contributions.



                  While I'm at it, here's an even more impossible request: multiple
                  assists for some baskets ... I think ice hockey does this. It's
                  rare enough in basketball so that this is largely irrelevant, but
                  every once in awhile there's a play where a good pass leads to an
                  easy pass for a dunk: and the guy who made the easy pass gets
                  the assist, but the play was really started by the first good pass.

                  Multiple responsibility for turnovers is another item on my wish
                  list: usually it's the passer's fault, but sometimes it's the
                  receiver's fault and I'm not sure that official NBA stats properly
                  assign the responsibility, especially in cases where it's a legitimately
                  mixed responsibility. Having an Olden or an Olowakandi (or an
                  Olumide Oyedeji -- stonehanded "oh-oh" players all) on a team
                  has to have a negative effect on a PG's Assist:TO ratio.

                  This was one of the great pleasures of doing DeanO's defensive
                  scoresheets: when assigning responsibility for causing a turnover,
                  we were free to list two players if appropriate (e.g. the player
                  who deflected the pass, and the one who picked up the deflection).



                  --MKT
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