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Ed and Charlie: Your discussion regarding ORs and DRs ..

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  • jsm_44092
    ... is interesting, but let me try a simpler approach. Let s assume that Dean Smith s way of measuring rebound performance, the difference in total
    Message 1 of 1 , Dec 27, 2003
      ... is interesting, but let me try a simpler approach. Let's assume
      that Dean Smith's way of measuring rebound performance, the
      difference in total possessions, is an appropriate measure, although
      certainly not the only statistic that could be used. (See page 4 of
      Smith's 1981 book.)

      With this assumption, we could then determine whether the difference
      in offensive rebounds correlates more strongly with the difference in
      total possessions than does the difference in defensive rebounds.

      Without having done any such calculations, the answer is
      obviously "yes" because there are many possible sequences that will
      affect the difference in defensive rebounds but will not affect the
      difference in possessions.

      For example, assume that total possessions are the same at some point
      in the game, with a possession recorded when a team attempts a field
      goal, goes to the field throw line or has a turnover. Team A has the
      ball, which is stolen in backcourt by Team B, which promptly misses a
      shot and Team A gets the rebound, then Team B again steals the ball,
      misses a shot and Team A gets the rebound.

      Now, let's analyze what has happened. Team A has a rebounding
      adavantage of +2 for this sequence. There has been no change in total
      possessions, however, and with Team A holding the ball in the
      backcourt, they are back to the same position, with the score
      unchanged, that they were in before they started losing the ball.

      Now, if we measure rebounding performance by the difference in total
      possessions, as Dean Smith did, then the two defensive rebounds that
      Team A garnered "don't count". That would undoubtedly seem illogical
      to most people, but it makes perfect sense to me. After all, when
      Team B missed the shot, Team A SHOULD have gotten the rebound because
      these were defensive rebounds.

      On the other hand, now let Team A successfully bring the ball across
      midcourt, miss a shot and get the rebound, then do the same then
      again and then make a shot. Their total possessions have just
      increased by 3 (i.e., 3 FG attempts), so if total possessions were
      even when Team A was crossing midcourt, Team A is now +3 in total
      possessions.

      All of this makes perfect sense to me but I suspect that I may be in
      the minority. :-)
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