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Re: Defensive stats and stats to track

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... Stuart -- Very good choices of projects. Every single one of them is on my list of things I d like to get. Some comments follow, based on my experience.
    Message 1 of 2 , Oct 31 2:59 PM
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:

      Stuart --

      Very good choices of projects. Every single one of them is on my
      list of things I'd like to get. Some comments follow, based on my

      > I'm in California and watch the Laker games. During the coming year
      I am
      > hoping to have the discipline necessary to close what I feel are
      gaps in the
      > existing stats. I want to keep track of the following:
      > 1. The types of offensive rebs and by who---and whether they result
      > tipins, putbacks or if the team eventually scores in the possession.

      I did find some indirect but convincing evidence once that offensive
      rebounds do in fact increase a team's likelihood to score.
      Specifically, if you calculate a Play % (which is what I call a
      team's chance to score ignoring offensive rebounds), it is higher
      after an OR than before. You would be collecting more direct

      > 2. Who shoots "and-1" freethrows, technical foul freethrows and
      > freethrows

      I have gone through a series of fudge factors on getting free throws
      right. Your analysis would help here, I think. Actually a year ago,
      I worked out the formulas to a sufficient degree that I thought I had
      it all right. Your results could open that up again. Not as
      important for me.

      > 3. Who recovers blocked shots (offensive, defensive or team rebs)
      and if the
      > defense recovers whether it results in transition buckets and by who

      Offensive team recovers a higher percentage of blocked shots than
      regular missed shots. I've measured it offhand a couple times. It
      makes sense, too, with guys blocking things out of bounds. See next
      thing wrt whether transition buckets happen.

      > 4. If steals result in transition buckets and by who

      I've looked a few times for whether steals or blocks lead to a better
      Play %. I've never seen it. Strange. I'll be curious if your work
      shows it. I have seen indirect evidence for it with college teams
      since there is a greater variation in skill. I remember that
      Pitino's Kentucky teams and the Iverson G'town teams showing
      statistical correlations that suggested that transition buckets were
      important. But I never did the measurements.

      > 5. Offensive fouls (a special kind of turnover)

      General breakdown of fouls is one thing I've gone for with the
      defensive stats I'm collecting. Basically, I only count those fouls
      that lead to FT's. A full breakdown is nice.

      > My reasoning for tracking the steals and blocks is to see if it
      might not be
      > better to track these defensive stats as really offensive transition
      > opportunities. For some reason I think that a Tendex-type
      evaluation might

      (My general editorial comment that there is no real way to fix Tendex
      because no one knows what it is supposed to measure.)

      > be improved if we convert these defensive stats to an offensive
      > (treating a blocked shot as sort of like an assist), so we're
      > apples to apples. I hypothesize that there are three components to
      > efficiency: transition, half-court, offensive rebounding.

      Probably a good breakdown. I find that people evaluate defense
      mostly based on half-court offense. I also find that offensive
      rebounds are due to defensive breakdown and lead to points easier (as
      echoed above). Transition defense/offense is often tough to define,
      but if you define it as the play that comes after a steal, maybe it
      will work.

      ome players
      > contribute in one area, some in all three. Maybe something will
      come of this
      > approach, maybe not.
      > Anyway I'm going back through the Finals and the Laker-Spurs series
      > on these stats. Some of this stuff may be readily available
      > fouls?) and I don't need to track it. If so, can someone fill me in
      and help
      > ease my burden?

      I don't know of specific references for this. With my focus on
      defense these days, too, I don't know if I can add too much with my
      stat-taking this year.

      Awesome effort.

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
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