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Re: Defensive stats and stats to track

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  • McKibbin, Stuart
    I m in California and watch the Laker games. During the coming year I am hoping to have the discipline necessary to close what I feel are gaps in the existing
    Message 1 of 2 , Oct 30, 2001
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      I'm in California and watch the Laker games. During the coming year I am hoping to have the discipline necessary to close what I feel are gaps in the existing stats. I want to keep track of the following:
       
      1. The types of offensive rebs and by who---and whether they result in tipins, putbacks or if the team eventually scores in the possession.
       
      2. Who shoots "and-1" freethrows, technical foul freethrows and bonus freethrows
       
      3. Who recovers blocked shots (offensive, defensive or team rebs) and if the defense recovers whether it results in transition buckets and by who
       
      4. If steals result in transition buckets and by who
       
      5. Offensive fouls (a special kind of turnover)
       
      My reasoning for tracking the steals and blocks is to see if it might not be better to track these defensive stats as really offensive transition opportunities. For some reason I think that a Tendex-type evaluation might be improved if we convert these defensive stats to an offensive context (treating a blocked shot as sort of like an assist), so we're comparing apples to apples. I hypothesize that there are three components to offensive efficiency: transition, half-court, offensive rebounding. Some players contribute in one area, some in all three. Maybe something will come of this approach, maybe not.
       
      Anyway I'm going back through the Finals and the Laker-Spurs series checking on these stats. Some of this stuff may be readily available (offensive fouls?) and I don't need to track it. If so, can someone fill me in and help ease my burden?
       
      Best Wishes
    • Dean Oliver
      ... Stuart -- Very good choices of projects. Every single one of them is on my list of things I d like to get. Some comments follow, based on my experience.
      Message 2 of 2 , Oct 31, 2001
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:

        Stuart --

        Very good choices of projects. Every single one of them is on my
        list of things I'd like to get. Some comments follow, based on my
        experience.

        > I'm in California and watch the Laker games. During the coming year
        I am
        > hoping to have the discipline necessary to close what I feel are
        gaps in the
        > existing stats. I want to keep track of the following:
        >
        > 1. The types of offensive rebs and by who---and whether they result
        in
        > tipins, putbacks or if the team eventually scores in the possession.
        >

        I did find some indirect but convincing evidence once that offensive
        rebounds do in fact increase a team's likelihood to score.
        Specifically, if you calculate a Play % (which is what I call a
        team's chance to score ignoring offensive rebounds), it is higher
        after an OR than before. You would be collecting more direct
        evidence.

        > 2. Who shoots "and-1" freethrows, technical foul freethrows and
        bonus
        > freethrows
        >

        I have gone through a series of fudge factors on getting free throws
        right. Your analysis would help here, I think. Actually a year ago,
        I worked out the formulas to a sufficient degree that I thought I had
        it all right. Your results could open that up again. Not as
        important for me.

        > 3. Who recovers blocked shots (offensive, defensive or team rebs)
        and if the
        > defense recovers whether it results in transition buckets and by who
        >

        Offensive team recovers a higher percentage of blocked shots than
        regular missed shots. I've measured it offhand a couple times. It
        makes sense, too, with guys blocking things out of bounds. See next
        thing wrt whether transition buckets happen.

        > 4. If steals result in transition buckets and by who
        >

        I've looked a few times for whether steals or blocks lead to a better
        Play %. I've never seen it. Strange. I'll be curious if your work
        shows it. I have seen indirect evidence for it with college teams
        since there is a greater variation in skill. I remember that
        Pitino's Kentucky teams and the Iverson G'town teams showing
        statistical correlations that suggested that transition buckets were
        important. But I never did the measurements.

        > 5. Offensive fouls (a special kind of turnover)
        >

        General breakdown of fouls is one thing I've gone for with the
        defensive stats I'm collecting. Basically, I only count those fouls
        that lead to FT's. A full breakdown is nice.

        > My reasoning for tracking the steals and blocks is to see if it
        might not be
        > better to track these defensive stats as really offensive transition
        > opportunities. For some reason I think that a Tendex-type
        evaluation might

        (My general editorial comment that there is no real way to fix Tendex
        because no one knows what it is supposed to measure.)

        > be improved if we convert these defensive stats to an offensive
        context
        > (treating a blocked shot as sort of like an assist), so we're
        comparing
        > apples to apples. I hypothesize that there are three components to
        offensive
        > efficiency: transition, half-court, offensive rebounding.

        Probably a good breakdown. I find that people evaluate defense
        mostly based on half-court offense. I also find that offensive
        rebounds are due to defensive breakdown and lead to points easier (as
        echoed above). Transition defense/offense is often tough to define,
        but if you define it as the play that comes after a steal, maybe it
        will work.


        ome players
        > contribute in one area, some in all three. Maybe something will
        come of this
        > approach, maybe not.
        >
        > Anyway I'm going back through the Finals and the Laker-Spurs series
        checking
        > on these stats. Some of this stuff may be readily available
        (offensive
        > fouls?) and I don't need to track it. If so, can someone fill me in
        and help
        > ease my burden?

        I don't know of specific references for this. With my focus on
        defense these days, too, I don't know if I can add too much with my
        stat-taking this year.

        Awesome effort.

        Dean Oliver
        Journal of Basketball Studies
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