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Re: sagging shooting percentages

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... mid- ... Adrian ... show. ... is ... It s tough to make this case without looking a bit more carefully, I think. Do individual players show declining
    Message 1 of 2 , Mar 4, 2001
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., msg_53@h... wrote:
      > The point has been made that NBA shooting has gone down since the
      mid-
      > 80s, and I wonder if there is a correlation with another trend: it
      > seems there is a tendency for the best players to play more minutes
      > these days.
      > In the 1980s, hardly anyone played 40 minutes a game. In 1980,
      Adrian
      > Dantley led the league with 39, on a team with no other talent. In
      > 1983, Larry Bird topped the league with 38 minutes. Michael Jordan
      > never seems to have averaged over 40, even when he was the whole
      show.
      > Through the early and mid 90s, no more than a handful of players
      > averaged 40 min. in a given year.
      > In this season of 94 ppg league-wide, we have some 20 players going
      > 40 mpg. Reggie Miller averaged 35 minutes in his prime, and now he
      is
      > doing 40. Allan Iverson's 43 mpg is the most since Dantley in '81.

      It's tough to make this case without looking a bit more
      carefully, I think. Do individual players show declining shooting
      percentages with minutes played? Basically, you need to control for
      everything else and isolate minutes played and shooting percentage.
      Isolate pairs of players with similar numbers, ignoring minutes and
      shooting, then see whether players shoot better with fewer or higher
      minutes. You might also control the season, if you think it's
      important, too.

      > I have always ascribed the overuse of players to jittery coaching:
      a
      > fear of losing tonight's game, and damn the future.

      It is somewhat true, especially at the college level. But Iverson is
      playing so much, not because Coach wants him to, but because Iverson
      wants to and Brown decided that was a concession he could make in
      their complex feud.

      > If you make a combined shooting pct. = total pts./(total
      attempts)*2,
      > the shooting hasn't fallen remarkably; in the 80s, it hovered
      > around .527 leaguewide, and now it is around .517, last I checked.
      > In the formula, divide FTA by 2.

      Bob Chaikin made this argument, too. Offensive efficiency has come
      down about 5-6 points per 100 possessions since the 80's. If
      shooting is only 2 points of that (.527-.517), what is the rest?

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
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