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Re: 12/2 Tor at Phi

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  • hpanic7342
    I ran a least-squares regression of offense and defense (as measured per possession, not per game) against winning percentage, using data from games prior to
    Message 1 of 4 , Dec 5, 2003
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      I ran a least-squares regression of offense and defense (as measured
      per possession, not per game) against winning percentage, using data
      from games prior to last night, and got the following formula:

      exp win% = 0.0347137*offense - 0.0304208*defense + 0.1093041

      I think that this is better than a straight up multiplier*(point
      differential) formula because it takes into account the fact that
      offense has been a better predictor of winning than defense this
      season. The year-end number of wins for a team given what we already
      have this season should be

      year-end expected wins = (win%)*(games) + (exp win%)*(82-games)

      Where exp win% is as defined above, win% is a team's winning
      percentage up to now, and games is the number of games a team has
      already played. Here are what this formula predicts the year-end
      standings will be (of course, I rounded wins to the nearest integer):

      ATLANTIC
      1. New Jersey (40-42)
      2. Philadelphia (40-42)
      3. Boston (37-45)
      4. Washington (31-51)
      5. New York (30-52)
      6. Miami (22-60)
      7. Orlando (15-67)

      CENTRAL
      1. Indiana (58-24)
      2. Detroit (55-27)
      3. New Orleans (51-31)
      4. Milwaukee (47-35)
      5. Toronto (31-51)
      6. Atlanta (27-55)
      7. Cleveland (25-57)
      8. Chicago (18-64)

      MIDWEST
      1. Dallas (55-27)
      2. Denver (52-30)
      3. Minnesota (50-32)
      4. Houston (48-34)
      5. San Antonio (47-35)
      6. Utah (45-37)
      7. Memphis (39-43)

      PACIFIC
      1. LA Lakers (66-16)
      2. Sacramento (65-17)
      3. Golden State (44-28)
      4. Seattle (43-39)
      5. Portland (40-42)
      6. Phoenix (37-45)
      7. LA Clippers (33-49)

      The wins and losses don't match up, but there are some remarkable
      results here. No Atlantic team is on pace to break .500, and only
      one Midwestern team is on pace to be below that mark. Also, note
      that EVERY TEAM from the West appears to be on pace to beat the #8
      playoff seed in the East (on pace to be Toronto). This is amazing.

      Of course, the formula given by the regression model for expected
      winning percentage should change slightly every day, and Chicago,
      Toronto, Memphis, and Portland have obviously made roster changes
      that will affect the way that they play offense and defense, but
      there's some pretty interesting information here. Does anyone else
      here think that the Atlantic (and the East in general) will continue
      to be this bad?

      Mikey



      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "harlanzo" <harlanzo@y...>
      wrote:
      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
      > wrote:
      > >
      > >. I can't believe Philly is
      > > below 0.500 and leading their division by a game and a half.
      > >
      > > DeanO
      >
      > The only team in the Atlantic Division with more points scored than
      > its opposition is the 7-11 and nets.
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