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Re: 12/2 Tor at Phi

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  • harlanzo
    ... The only team in the Atlantic Division with more points scored than its opposition is the 7-11 and nets.
    Message 1 of 4 , Dec 4, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
      wrote:
      >
      >. I can't believe Philly is
      > below 0.500 and leading their division by a game and a half.
      >
      > DeanO

      The only team in the Atlantic Division with more points scored than
      its opposition is the 7-11 and nets.
    • hpanic7342
      I ran a least-squares regression of offense and defense (as measured per possession, not per game) against winning percentage, using data from games prior to
      Message 2 of 4 , Dec 5, 2003
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        I ran a least-squares regression of offense and defense (as measured
        per possession, not per game) against winning percentage, using data
        from games prior to last night, and got the following formula:

        exp win% = 0.0347137*offense - 0.0304208*defense + 0.1093041

        I think that this is better than a straight up multiplier*(point
        differential) formula because it takes into account the fact that
        offense has been a better predictor of winning than defense this
        season. The year-end number of wins for a team given what we already
        have this season should be

        year-end expected wins = (win%)*(games) + (exp win%)*(82-games)

        Where exp win% is as defined above, win% is a team's winning
        percentage up to now, and games is the number of games a team has
        already played. Here are what this formula predicts the year-end
        standings will be (of course, I rounded wins to the nearest integer):

        ATLANTIC
        1. New Jersey (40-42)
        2. Philadelphia (40-42)
        3. Boston (37-45)
        4. Washington (31-51)
        5. New York (30-52)
        6. Miami (22-60)
        7. Orlando (15-67)

        CENTRAL
        1. Indiana (58-24)
        2. Detroit (55-27)
        3. New Orleans (51-31)
        4. Milwaukee (47-35)
        5. Toronto (31-51)
        6. Atlanta (27-55)
        7. Cleveland (25-57)
        8. Chicago (18-64)

        MIDWEST
        1. Dallas (55-27)
        2. Denver (52-30)
        3. Minnesota (50-32)
        4. Houston (48-34)
        5. San Antonio (47-35)
        6. Utah (45-37)
        7. Memphis (39-43)

        PACIFIC
        1. LA Lakers (66-16)
        2. Sacramento (65-17)
        3. Golden State (44-28)
        4. Seattle (43-39)
        5. Portland (40-42)
        6. Phoenix (37-45)
        7. LA Clippers (33-49)

        The wins and losses don't match up, but there are some remarkable
        results here. No Atlantic team is on pace to break .500, and only
        one Midwestern team is on pace to be below that mark. Also, note
        that EVERY TEAM from the West appears to be on pace to beat the #8
        playoff seed in the East (on pace to be Toronto). This is amazing.

        Of course, the formula given by the regression model for expected
        winning percentage should change slightly every day, and Chicago,
        Toronto, Memphis, and Portland have obviously made roster changes
        that will affect the way that they play offense and defense, but
        there's some pretty interesting information here. Does anyone else
        here think that the Atlantic (and the East in general) will continue
        to be this bad?

        Mikey



        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "harlanzo" <harlanzo@y...>
        wrote:
        > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
        > wrote:
        > >
        > >. I can't believe Philly is
        > > below 0.500 and leading their division by a game and a half.
        > >
        > > DeanO
        >
        > The only team in the Atlantic Division with more points scored than
        > its opposition is the 7-11 and nets.
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