## Re: 12/2 Tor at Phi

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• ... OK, I have stooped to the challenge. Here s my ratings for the players: toronto ... Marshall 44 53 38 Carter . 46 47 43 Williams 31 30 19 Bosh . . 28 20 22
Message 1 of 4 , Dec 4, 2003
--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
wrote:
>
> Out of curiosity, I'm curious to hear how people's systems evaluate
> the 12/2 Toronto at Philly game. Iverson shot 8/32 and scored 35
> points. Vince Carter was 6/19 for 21 pts with 12 assists. ..

OK, I have stooped to the challenge.

Here's my ratings for the players:

toronto
-------- PR TP tp2
Marshall 44 53 38
Carter . 46 47 43
Williams 31 30 19
Bosh . . 28 20 22
Peterson 31 14 12
Rose . . 9. 11 10
Baxter . 20 7. 10
Moiso .. 8. 3. 4.
Curry .. 8. 3. 3.
-----------------
raptors 28 189 161

PR is "production rate", per-36-minutes. Rates are scaled to the
opponents' averages; in this case, a single opponent.

TP is "total production", reconstituted from the PR and the guy's
minutes.

tp2 is just raw totals, weighted and added.

philly
--------- PR TP tp2
Iverson . 40 52 48
Thomas .. 31 33 30
Mckie . . 18 17 16
Snow .. . 12 13 13
Jackson . 37 12 13
Salmons . 16 11 12
Dalembert 19 11 12
Buckner . 4. 1. 1.
Korver .. 1. .3 .3
-------------------
sixers .. 24 154 149

The team PR is figured the same as that of players; then /5

For the teams (Toronto won 95-88), I might like to see the sum in
the PR column be proportional to the points scored. But 189/95 =
1.99
And 154/88 = 1.75

Therefore, players for the winning team are getting more credit for
their contributions than the losers are. About 12% more.

The 3rd column is one I've never used before. It uses the same
weights as the "standardized" rates, but is otherwise just raw
totals. They turn out to be Exactly proportional to the score.

161/95 = 1.696 = 149/88

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/files/
• ... The only team in the Atlantic Division with more points scored than its opposition is the 7-11 and nets.
Message 2 of 4 , Dec 4, 2003
--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
wrote:
>
>. I can't believe Philly is
> below 0.500 and leading their division by a game and a half.
>
> DeanO

The only team in the Atlantic Division with more points scored than
its opposition is the 7-11 and nets.
• I ran a least-squares regression of offense and defense (as measured per possession, not per game) against winning percentage, using data from games prior to
Message 3 of 4 , Dec 5, 2003
I ran a least-squares regression of offense and defense (as measured
per possession, not per game) against winning percentage, using data
from games prior to last night, and got the following formula:

exp win% = 0.0347137*offense - 0.0304208*defense + 0.1093041

I think that this is better than a straight up multiplier*(point
differential) formula because it takes into account the fact that
offense has been a better predictor of winning than defense this
season. The year-end number of wins for a team given what we already
have this season should be

year-end expected wins = (win%)*(games) + (exp win%)*(82-games)

Where exp win% is as defined above, win% is a team's winning
percentage up to now, and games is the number of games a team has
already played. Here are what this formula predicts the year-end
standings will be (of course, I rounded wins to the nearest integer):

ATLANTIC
1. New Jersey (40-42)
3. Boston (37-45)
4. Washington (31-51)
5. New York (30-52)
6. Miami (22-60)
7. Orlando (15-67)

CENTRAL
1. Indiana (58-24)
2. Detroit (55-27)
3. New Orleans (51-31)
4. Milwaukee (47-35)
5. Toronto (31-51)
6. Atlanta (27-55)
7. Cleveland (25-57)
8. Chicago (18-64)

MIDWEST
1. Dallas (55-27)
2. Denver (52-30)
3. Minnesota (50-32)
4. Houston (48-34)
5. San Antonio (47-35)
6. Utah (45-37)
7. Memphis (39-43)

PACIFIC
1. LA Lakers (66-16)
2. Sacramento (65-17)
3. Golden State (44-28)
4. Seattle (43-39)
5. Portland (40-42)
6. Phoenix (37-45)
7. LA Clippers (33-49)

The wins and losses don't match up, but there are some remarkable
results here. No Atlantic team is on pace to break .500, and only
one Midwestern team is on pace to be below that mark. Also, note
that EVERY TEAM from the West appears to be on pace to beat the #8
playoff seed in the East (on pace to be Toronto). This is amazing.

Of course, the formula given by the regression model for expected
winning percentage should change slightly every day, and Chicago,
Toronto, Memphis, and Portland have obviously made roster changes
that will affect the way that they play offense and defense, but
there's some pretty interesting information here. Does anyone else
here think that the Atlantic (and the East in general) will continue

Mikey

--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "harlanzo" <harlanzo@y...>
wrote:
> --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
> wrote:
> >
> >. I can't believe Philly is
> > below 0.500 and leading their division by a game and a half.
> >
> > DeanO
>
> The only team in the Atlantic Division with more points scored than
> its opposition is the 7-11 and nets.
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