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12/2 Tor at Phi

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  • Dean Oliver
    Out of curiosity, I m curious to hear how people s systems evaluate the 12/2 Toronto at Philly game. Iverson shot 8/32 and scored 35 points. Vince Carter was
    Message 1 of 4 , Dec 3, 2003
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      Out of curiosity, I'm curious to hear how people's systems evaluate
      the 12/2 Toronto at Philly game. Iverson shot 8/32 and scored 35
      points. Vince Carter was 6/19 for 21 pts with 12 assists. Some other
      interesting lines in the game, too. Philly out offensive rebounded
      Toronto by a huge margin, committed fewer turnovers, and got to the
      line more, but shot so poorly that it didn't matter.

      AI used 42% of Philly's possessions while in the game, albeit
      inefficiently, with an offensive rating of 96 and a defensive rating
      of 100, which means I give him a "loss" in this game. Marc Jackson
      used 35% of Philly's possessions when he was in, which means that
      basically these 2 guys were 80% of the offense for the 10 or so
      minutes that they overlapped. Sheesh.

      Vince Carter's newly found passing ability is valuable as he does have
      other scorers around him. I have him with a 110 offensive rating and
      a 94 defensive rating on 35% of the Raptor's possessions. Jalen Rose
      was a negative contributing a net of about -7 pts, on the other hand,
      even though he did have 8 assists. Donyell Marshall was useful,
      producing 19 pts on about 14 possessions for a rating of 132. He also
      had a "win" like Carter, though Carter contributed a bit more. Alvin
      Williams got to play a complementary role, shooting 6/6 and having an
      Eric Snow-like night.

      This was an interesting game. The Raptors still had some imbalance in
      that Carter is handling the ball a lot, but at least guys are shooting
      the ball. Bosh, who has been playing well as the one guy who was
      shooting the ball besides Carter, didn't have a great game here, but
      definitely helped at the defensive end. I can't believe Philly is
      below 0.500 and leading their division by a game and a half.

      DeanO
    • Mike G
      ... OK, I have stooped to the challenge. Here s my ratings for the players: toronto ... Marshall 44 53 38 Carter . 46 47 43 Williams 31 30 19 Bosh . . 28 20 22
      Message 2 of 4 , Dec 4, 2003
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
        wrote:
        >
        > Out of curiosity, I'm curious to hear how people's systems evaluate
        > the 12/2 Toronto at Philly game. Iverson shot 8/32 and scored 35
        > points. Vince Carter was 6/19 for 21 pts with 12 assists. ..

        OK, I have stooped to the challenge.

        Here's my ratings for the players:

        toronto
        -------- PR TP tp2
        Marshall 44 53 38
        Carter . 46 47 43
        Williams 31 30 19
        Bosh . . 28 20 22
        Peterson 31 14 12
        Rose . . 9. 11 10
        Baxter . 20 7. 10
        Moiso .. 8. 3. 4.
        Curry .. 8. 3. 3.
        -----------------
        raptors 28 189 161

        PR is "production rate", per-36-minutes. Rates are scaled to the
        opponents' averages; in this case, a single opponent.

        TP is "total production", reconstituted from the PR and the guy's
        minutes.

        tp2 is just raw totals, weighted and added.

        philly
        --------- PR TP tp2
        Iverson . 40 52 48
        Thomas .. 31 33 30
        Mckie . . 18 17 16
        Snow .. . 12 13 13
        Jackson . 37 12 13
        Salmons . 16 11 12
        Dalembert 19 11 12
        Mccaskill 12 4. 5.
        Buckner . 4. 1. 1.
        Korver .. 1. .3 .3
        -------------------
        sixers .. 24 154 149

        The team PR is figured the same as that of players; then /5

        For the teams (Toronto won 95-88), I might like to see the sum in
        the PR column be proportional to the points scored. But 189/95 =
        1.99
        And 154/88 = 1.75

        Therefore, players for the winning team are getting more credit for
        their contributions than the losers are. About 12% more.

        The 3rd column is one I've never used before. It uses the same
        weights as the "standardized" rates, but is otherwise just raw
        totals. They turn out to be Exactly proportional to the score.

        161/95 = 1.696 = 149/88


        I have uploaded the Excel spreadsheet to the Files section:


        http://groups.yahoo.com/group/APBR_analysis/files/
      • harlanzo
        ... The only team in the Atlantic Division with more points scored than its opposition is the 7-11 and nets.
        Message 3 of 4 , Dec 4, 2003
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          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
          wrote:
          >
          >. I can't believe Philly is
          > below 0.500 and leading their division by a game and a half.
          >
          > DeanO

          The only team in the Atlantic Division with more points scored than
          its opposition is the 7-11 and nets.
        • hpanic7342
          I ran a least-squares regression of offense and defense (as measured per possession, not per game) against winning percentage, using data from games prior to
          Message 4 of 4 , Dec 5, 2003
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            I ran a least-squares regression of offense and defense (as measured
            per possession, not per game) against winning percentage, using data
            from games prior to last night, and got the following formula:

            exp win% = 0.0347137*offense - 0.0304208*defense + 0.1093041

            I think that this is better than a straight up multiplier*(point
            differential) formula because it takes into account the fact that
            offense has been a better predictor of winning than defense this
            season. The year-end number of wins for a team given what we already
            have this season should be

            year-end expected wins = (win%)*(games) + (exp win%)*(82-games)

            Where exp win% is as defined above, win% is a team's winning
            percentage up to now, and games is the number of games a team has
            already played. Here are what this formula predicts the year-end
            standings will be (of course, I rounded wins to the nearest integer):

            ATLANTIC
            1. New Jersey (40-42)
            2. Philadelphia (40-42)
            3. Boston (37-45)
            4. Washington (31-51)
            5. New York (30-52)
            6. Miami (22-60)
            7. Orlando (15-67)

            CENTRAL
            1. Indiana (58-24)
            2. Detroit (55-27)
            3. New Orleans (51-31)
            4. Milwaukee (47-35)
            5. Toronto (31-51)
            6. Atlanta (27-55)
            7. Cleveland (25-57)
            8. Chicago (18-64)

            MIDWEST
            1. Dallas (55-27)
            2. Denver (52-30)
            3. Minnesota (50-32)
            4. Houston (48-34)
            5. San Antonio (47-35)
            6. Utah (45-37)
            7. Memphis (39-43)

            PACIFIC
            1. LA Lakers (66-16)
            2. Sacramento (65-17)
            3. Golden State (44-28)
            4. Seattle (43-39)
            5. Portland (40-42)
            6. Phoenix (37-45)
            7. LA Clippers (33-49)

            The wins and losses don't match up, but there are some remarkable
            results here. No Atlantic team is on pace to break .500, and only
            one Midwestern team is on pace to be below that mark. Also, note
            that EVERY TEAM from the West appears to be on pace to beat the #8
            playoff seed in the East (on pace to be Toronto). This is amazing.

            Of course, the formula given by the regression model for expected
            winning percentage should change slightly every day, and Chicago,
            Toronto, Memphis, and Portland have obviously made roster changes
            that will affect the way that they play offense and defense, but
            there's some pretty interesting information here. Does anyone else
            here think that the Atlantic (and the East in general) will continue
            to be this bad?

            Mikey



            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "harlanzo" <harlanzo@y...>
            wrote:
            > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
            > wrote:
            > >
            > >. I can't believe Philly is
            > > below 0.500 and leading their division by a game and a half.
            > >
            > > DeanO
            >
            > The only team in the Atlantic Division with more points scored than
            > its opposition is the 7-11 and nets.
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