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RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Raptor Anomaly

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  • Michael Tamada
    ... From: Mike G [mailto:msg_53@hotmail.com] Sent: Tuesday, December 02, 2003 8:50 AM ... Sabrmetrics has shown, and I imagine that basketball statistics would
    Message 1 of 7 , Dec 2, 2003
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      -----Original Message-----
      From: Mike G [mailto:msg_53@...]
      Sent: Tuesday, December 02, 2003 8:50 AM

      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "harlanzo" <harlanzo@y...>
      wrote:
      >> ... weird thing about toronto is that they are 8-8 but have been
      >> outscored by 6 ppg.
      >
      >They've had several 1- and 2-point wins, and more than a few 20-30
      >point losses.

      Sabrmetrics has shown, and I imagine that basketball statistics would
      also show, that teams such as Toronto are prime candidates to finish
      below .500. As the season progresses, those 1- and 2-point games will
      even out to about .500 for Toronto... each new close game is an event
      with a fairly random outcome. Toronto will win some of them
      and lose some of them ... and thus win about .500 of them. Meanwhile
      those 20- and 30-point games might fluctuate into 15- or 35-point games
      -- meaning they will still be losses. Add them all together and it
      comes out to less than .500.

      Now if Toronto had some blowout wins under its belt, things would be
      looking brighter. But then if they had some blowout wins under their
      belt, they wouldn't have that -6 point differential.


      --MKT
    • John Hollinger
      I agree, Rose is grossly overrated and basically inferior to Peterson. The only guy in that trade who isn t grossly overpaid is Marshall. But I think one way
      Message 2 of 7 , Dec 2, 2003
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        I agree, Rose is grossly overrated and basically inferior to
        Peterson. The only guy in that trade who isn't grossly overpaid is
        Marshall.

        But I think one way Jalen could help is if the Raptors play him at
        point guard and bag the Williams/Palacio combo, at least until Alvin
        can play without a limp. One reason their offense has been so bad is
        that O'Neill has been sticking with Michael Curry and an injured
        Alvin Williams in the starting lineup, so a Rose-Carter-Marshall-Bosh-
        Moiso could potentially score quite a bit more.



        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, Stephen Greenwell
        <sgre6768@p...> wrote:
        >
      • igor eduardo küpfer
        ... From: John Hollinger To: Sent: Tuesday, December 02, 2003 9:45 PM Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re:
        Message 3 of 7 , Dec 2, 2003
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          ----- Original Message -----
          From: "John Hollinger" <alleyoop2@...>
          To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
          Sent: Tuesday, December 02, 2003 9:45 PM
          Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Raptor Anomaly


          > I agree, Rose is grossly overrated and basically inferior to
          > Peterson. The only guy in that trade who isn't grossly overpaid is
          > Marshall.
          >
          > But I think one way Jalen could help is if the Raptors play him at
          > point guard and bag the Williams/Palacio combo, at least until Alvin
          > can play without a limp. One reason their offense has been so bad is
          > that O'Neill has been sticking with Michael Curry and an injured
          > Alvin Williams in the starting lineup, so a Rose-Carter-Marshall-Bosh-
          > Moiso could potentially score quite a bit more.
          >

          Alvin looks healthy now. Rose's role is presumably to shoot the ball, and
          handle the ball a little. The Raps' entire offense consists of giving Vince
          Carter the ball and asking him to do something. Since about game 4 when
          opponents figured this out, teams have been double- and triple-teaming
          Vince, leaving one guy in the paint waiting for him, weakside players
          sagging off their guys in anticipation of helping on Vince. Since no other
          Raptor can shoot (except for Lamond Murray, who started the year poorly),
          this makes for a very bad offense. Rose and Marshall will be asked to shoot
          when Carter dumps off. They looked good in their first game, a win tonight
          against the Sixers.

          ed
        • Dean Oliver
          ... I don t know who overrates Rose anymore. He s taken his lumps. He was dramatically overrated. Now people see him a little better, I think. All in all,
          Message 4 of 7 , Dec 3, 2003
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            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
            <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
            > I agree, Rose is grossly overrated and basically inferior to
            > Peterson. The only guy in that trade who isn't grossly overpaid is
            > Marshall.
            >
            > But I think one way Jalen could help is if the Raptors play him at
            > point guard and bag the Williams/Palacio combo, at least until Alvin
            > can play without a limp. One reason their offense has been so bad is
            > that O'Neill has been sticking with Michael Curry and an injured
            > Alvin Williams in the starting lineup, so a Rose-Carter-Marshall-Bosh-
            > Moiso could potentially score quite a bit more.
            >

            I don't know who overrates Rose anymore. He's taken his lumps. He
            was dramatically overrated. Now people see him a little better, I think.

            All in all, though, Toronto got a good deal here. They were
            desperately lacking guys who could create outside of Carter. Rose can
            do that, albeit not very efficiently, but he still helps his teammates
            in this situation, whereas Chicago really couldn't use him. Also,
            Toronto's D behind Bosh is quite good, allowing Rose to fit better.
            So this is a case where the chemistry gets better in Toronto.

            Chicago is still unclear to me, as they were at the start of the
            season. They still have some signs of improvement and some signs of
            pure garbage. I've never liked Jamal Crawford like everyone else
            does, though he did have a great game the other night -- kinda like
            Rose, actually, in his ups and downs. Curry does look like he'll have
            a better year. Skiles is a good coach, so maybe he can blend these
            guys together.

            DeanO
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