The Allen Iverson Project
"Stuart, have you broken down the FT attempts resulting from these 3
categories of shot attempts? My guess is that adding in those points
and attempts will yield a much more favorable case for Iverson going
to the rack. And that doesn't even consider damage done to the opponent by picking
up fouls. Maybe this could be quantified? So if Iverson was fouled with the ball 32 times, 7 in transition,
that leaves 25. If 20 of these were while attempting to shoot, and
15 (just guessing) were on layup attempts, he may have another (24-30
FT, just a guess) equivalent of 12-15 shooting to add to his 8-27 FG.
This is 20-42, which is right up there with his long-range TSP."
I quick run back through my chart breaks down the FT's like this:
2 Technicals, 10 bonus fouls for 20 FTs, 8 Driving layups for 15 FTs (that includes one "and-1" FT), 4 pullup jumpers for 7FTs (that includes one "and-1" FT), and 1 jumpshot for 3 Fts. 16 times he was fouled without getting a FT. I'm missing a FT from Game 3, my charts say 12, the boxscore says 13. Perhaps it was a technical foul I didn't have the tape running for.
So to continue your train of thought---Iverson took it to the rack with the intention of shooting it 51 times. He made 17, made 1 and was fouled, was fouled on 7 others for 14 FTs, and missed the other 26 attempts. Rather than see how many FTs Al actually made, I think it would be better to just multiply his FTA times his FT%. So the results were (18 + (15/2 x .8))/51 = 47%. (up from 41%) Which is just what you suspected, Mike. I think what I should do is see which fouls came in transition and subtract those out (I never said 7 fouls came in transition).
"Is it possible to break down the offensive rebounding resulting from the 3 categories (outside jumper, pullup jumper, layup)? And how did you classify those times when Iverson beat his man and lobbed it up over Shaq? Those seemed to fall at a high percentage."
The teardrops over Shaq were counted as layups---he wasn't pointing his elbow at the rim.
Well here's the total breakdown of offensive rebounding based on shot type:
Jumpshot: 52 misses. Teammates recovered 8 offensive rebs plus two team rebounds. The eight off rebs were converted into 18 points, with Al scoring 3 of the 18. The two team rebs were converted into 5 points with Al scoring all 5.------Total 10 second chances, 23 points.
Driving Jumpshot: 18 misses. Teammates recovered 6 offensive rebs which were converted into 4 points.
Layups: 26 misses. Teammates recovered two that hit the rim and converted them into 5 points. Teammates recovered one blocked shot and converted it into 2 points. 2 team rebounds were converted into 3 points. Al recovered 4 of his own shots and he converted them into 4 points by himself.----Total 9 second chances, 14 points.
In my mind what Doug Collins termed the "Iverson effect" should be offensive rebounds by teammates only (recovering blocked shots, team rebounds or Al getting his own misses shouldn't count). So I'd put the Iverson effect as 87 misses, 16 offensive rebounds, 27 points.
- --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:
> In my mind what Doug Collins termed the "Iverson effect" should beoffensive
> rebounds by teammates only (recovering blocked shots, team reboundsor Al
> getting his own misses shouldn't count). So I'd put the Iversoneffect as 87
> misses, 16 offensive rebounds, 27 points.I'm completely swamped at work these days, so I don't have much time,
but I do have one comment on this.
OK, I have more than that. 16 rebounds of 87 misses isn't very
good. The hypothesis has always been that teammates should rebound
more of his misses proportionately. Apparently not true.
However, 27 points on 16 orebs is pretty impressive. Much better
than I thought it would be.
Sooo... my calculations generally assume that a team performs just
about as well off of misses as it does in a normal possession. 27
points out of 87 misses is about right because the Sixers rebounded
33% of their own missed shots in the postseason and scored 1.03 pts
per possession. So my estimate on how many points should have been
scored off of Iverson's misses is 1.03*0.327*87 = 29 pts.
What I don't estimate very well, however, is that only 16 of his 87
misses be rebounded. I estimated 0.327*87 = 28. This makes his
offensive efficiency look higher than it was.
On the other hand (I argue with myself a lot on these things), I do
give credit for other players rebounding
In the end, I estimated that Iverson scored on 48% of his 161
possessions, "producing" 165 points. I defined possessions slightly
differently -- a missed shot of his that is rebounded by a teammate
is not considered a possession. I had him "winning" 2 of 5 games vs.
OK, that's more time than I can afford. But I will study this stuff
more after 11/19 when my life gets a little more normal. Very useful.
Journal of Basketball Studies