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sagging shooting percentages

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  • msg_53@hotmail.com
    The point has been made that NBA shooting has gone down since the mid- 80s, and I wonder if there is a correlation with another trend: it seems there is a
    Message 1 of 2 , Feb 28, 2001
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      The point has been made that NBA shooting has gone down since the mid-
      80s, and I wonder if there is a correlation with another trend: it
      seems there is a tendency for the best players to play more minutes
      these days.
      In the 1980s, hardly anyone played 40 minutes a game. In 1980, Adrian
      Dantley led the league with 39, on a team with no other talent. In
      1983, Larry Bird topped the league with 38 minutes. Michael Jordan
      never seems to have averaged over 40, even when he was the whole show.
      Through the early and mid 90s, no more than a handful of players
      averaged 40 min. in a given year.
      In this season of 94 ppg league-wide, we have some 20 players going
      40 mpg. Reggie Miller averaged 35 minutes in his prime, and now he is
      doing 40. Allan Iverson's 43 mpg is the most since Dantley in '81.
      I have always ascribed the overuse of players to jittery coaching: a
      fear of losing tonight's game, and damn the future. It also was true
      that players went more minutes in the '50s and '60s, when shooting
      percentages also suffered, and careers were shorter.
      If you make a combined shooting pct. = total pts./(total attempts)*2,
      the shooting hasn't fallen remarkably; in the 80s, it hovered
      around .527 leaguewide, and now it is around .517, last I checked.
      In the formula, divide FTA by 2.
    • Dean Oliver
      ... mid- ... Adrian ... show. ... is ... It s tough to make this case without looking a bit more carefully, I think. Do individual players show declining
      Message 2 of 2 , Mar 4, 2001
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., msg_53@h... wrote:
        > The point has been made that NBA shooting has gone down since the
        mid-
        > 80s, and I wonder if there is a correlation with another trend: it
        > seems there is a tendency for the best players to play more minutes
        > these days.
        > In the 1980s, hardly anyone played 40 minutes a game. In 1980,
        Adrian
        > Dantley led the league with 39, on a team with no other talent. In
        > 1983, Larry Bird topped the league with 38 minutes. Michael Jordan
        > never seems to have averaged over 40, even when he was the whole
        show.
        > Through the early and mid 90s, no more than a handful of players
        > averaged 40 min. in a given year.
        > In this season of 94 ppg league-wide, we have some 20 players going
        > 40 mpg. Reggie Miller averaged 35 minutes in his prime, and now he
        is
        > doing 40. Allan Iverson's 43 mpg is the most since Dantley in '81.

        It's tough to make this case without looking a bit more
        carefully, I think. Do individual players show declining shooting
        percentages with minutes played? Basically, you need to control for
        everything else and isolate minutes played and shooting percentage.
        Isolate pairs of players with similar numbers, ignoring minutes and
        shooting, then see whether players shoot better with fewer or higher
        minutes. You might also control the season, if you think it's
        important, too.

        > I have always ascribed the overuse of players to jittery coaching:
        a
        > fear of losing tonight's game, and damn the future.

        It is somewhat true, especially at the college level. But Iverson is
        playing so much, not because Coach wants him to, but because Iverson
        wants to and Brown decided that was a concession he could make in
        their complex feud.

        > If you make a combined shooting pct. = total pts./(total
        attempts)*2,
        > the shooting hasn't fallen remarkably; in the 80s, it hovered
        > around .527 leaguewide, and now it is around .517, last I checked.
        > In the formula, divide FTA by 2.

        Bob Chaikin made this argument, too. Offensive efficiency has come
        down about 5-6 points per 100 possessions since the 80's. If
        shooting is only 2 points of that (.527-.517), what is the rest?

        Dean Oliver
        Journal of Basketball Studies
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