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RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: The Allen Iverson Project

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  • McKibbin, Stuart
    Dean: Thank you for your interest. Maybe I should explain what I charted. I kept track of his touches, whether they were in half court, advancing the ball, in
    Message 1 of 10 , Oct 17, 2001
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      Dean:
      Thank you for your interest.
      Maybe I should explain what I charted.

      I kept track of his touches, whether they were in half court, advancing the ball, in transition or from an inbounds pass in half court. Sometimes advances and transition touches are the same thing and I made a note of that.

      I kept track of who the defender was, that is who was facing up to Al between him and the basket. Almost always when Al was unguarded it was in transition (like that 3 in OT, technically he was Lue's man but Lue was sprawled out of bounds after missing a godawful layup attempt and no one picked up Al). I kept track of switches, even though it very rarely happened. My e-mail left out certain possessions where Shaw guarded Iverson, or Ho Grant but I can add those up pretty quickly.

      I kept track of how Iverson shot the ball, that is whether it was a driving layup attempt, a drive and a pull up jumper or if he shot the ball immediately after receiving it. If Al got the ball and F'd around dribbling without going anywhere (usually trying to set up his man with a high screen) and then shot it without penetration i lumped it in with shooting a jumper immediately. If he was fouled while shooting and missed I didn't count that as a shot. But I noted what the foul was (hold, in the act, etc.)

      I kept track if he passed and if he drove then passed.

      I kept track of doubles and help. The distinction I made was that if the defender came over before AL attempted to penetrate it was a double, if the defense collapsed on him during penetration or showed out on the pick and roll I called that Help. I kept track of who the doubler or help defender were. And when I could tell I made a note if it was the doubler's man that ended up scoring on the possession.

      I kept track of assists and "assist-like" plays. That is, if Al passed to Ty Hill and Hill was fouled on his layup attempt Al got an "assist-like" credit.

      In some ad hoc notes I kept track if good denial defense was played or if the Sixers were running High pick and roll or if Al was just standing around resting. I wasn't as thorough as i'd should have been about that.

      And finally I kept track of offensive rebounds on Al's shots. That is actually why I started doing this ---because I heard Doug Collins bray about the "Allen Iverson effect", that his misses were just like passes. I thought that that was a bunch of shit so I decided to check. First thing I noticed is that the official offensive rebound definition stinks, sort of like Doug. So I did NOT count recovered block shots as an offensive rebound, nor did I count Al chasing down his own miss as an offensive rebound. I found that of Al's 91 missed shots his teammates corraled 18 of them, 19.7%. Sorry Doug, Al's misses are no more valuable than anybody else's misses. But those 18 off rebs resulted in 32 points (maybe the offensive rebound as I've defined it is a little more valuable than Tendex gives it credit for).

      Anyway, I'll reply a little later to fill in the ??? you had.

      Best Wishes
    • McKibbin, Stuart
      Perhaps a summary of Iverson is in order. 452 possessions. 328 touches. 86 of the touches came from Iverson advancing the ball. 67 of the touches were in
      Message 2 of 10 , Oct 21, 2001
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        Perhaps a summary of Iverson is in order.
         
        452 possessions. 328 touches.
        86 of the touches came from Iverson advancing the ball. 67 of the touches were in transition. Transition touches and advancing touches overlapped 30 times.
         
        Overall, Al shot the 162 times (162/328 = 49.3%). He was 33-85 with jumpshots, including 11 treys for a true shooting percentage of 45.3%. He was 15-33 (45.5%) when he drove and then pulled up for the jumpshot. He was 18-44 (41.0%) when he drove to the basket for a layup.
         
        However, when he was in transition, and many times unguarded, his shooting percentage went way up. In transition situations he was 18-31 (58%).  3-5 with jumpshots, tsp = 70%, 5-9 with the pullup jumper, 10-17 taking it to the rack. So when Allen took it all the way to the basket and wasn't in transition he was a mere 8-27 (29.6%), demonstrating that in the half court at least it's still a big man's game. But in the open court Al's speed is a hell of an advantage.
         
        On his 86 advances Iverson passed the ball 37 times, shot it 33 times, and was fouled 7 times. The other 8 advances consists of various misc. happenings.
         
        Al passed the ball 109 times, (109/328 = 33.2%). 17 assists and 12 "assist-like" plays. .
         
        He had 11 turnovers (11/328 = 3.3%) and was fouled 32 times with the ball (32/328 = 9.7%) and was fouled 7 times away from the ball. 14 other miscellaneous things (like jumpballs, deflections, timeouts, away from the ball fouls, illegal screens, etc.) happened to round out the 328.
         
        There were 170 possessions when Al did not touched the ball. Philly scored 148 points or 0.87 pts/poss.
        There were 119 possessions when Al touched the ball and didn't get a FGA or a FTA. Philly scored 116 points or 0.97 pts/poss.
        There were 172 possesions were Al had either a FGA or FTA. Philly scored 203 points or 1.18 pts/poss. 32 of the 203 points came from Philly hitting the offensive boards (including Al recovering his own shot, so there is a little double counting here).
        I don't count the technicals Al shot as part of any possession.
      • Mike Goodman
        ... touches ... overlapped 30 ... 45.3%. He ... jumpshot. He was ... Stuart, have you broken down the FT attempts resulting from these 3 categories of shot
        Message 3 of 10 , Oct 22, 2001
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          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:
          > Perhaps a summary of Iverson is in order.
          >
          > 452 possessions. 328 touches.
          > 86 of the touches came from Iverson advancing the ball. 67 of the
          touches
          > were in transition. Transition touches and advancing touches
          overlapped 30
          > times.
          >
          > Overall, Al shot the 162 times (162/328 = 49.3%). He was 33-85 with
          > jumpshots, including 11 treys for a true shooting percentage of
          45.3%. He
          > was 15-33 (45.5%) when he drove and then pulled up for the
          jumpshot. He was
          > 18-44 (41.0%) when he drove to the basket for a layup.

          Stuart, have you broken down the FT attempts resulting from these 3
          categories of shot attempts? My guess is that adding in those points
          and attempts will yield a much more favorable case for Iverson going
          to the rack.
          And that doesn't even consider damage done to the opponent by picking
          up fouls. Maybe this could be quantified?

          > However, when he was in transition, and many times unguarded, his
          shooting
          > percentage went way up. In transition situations he was 18-31
          (58%). 3-5
          > with jumpshots, tsp = 70%, 5-9 with the pullup jumper, 10-17 taking
          it to
          > the rack. So when Allen took it all the way to the basket and
          wasn't in
          > transition he was a mere 8-27 (29.6%), demonstrating that in the
          half court
          > at least it's still a big man's game. But in the open court Al's
          speed is a
          > hell of an advantage.
          >
          > On his 86 advances Iverson passed the ball 37 times, shot it 33
          times, and
          > was fouled 7 times. The other 8 advances consists of various misc.
          > happenings.
          >
          > Al passed the ball 109 times, (109/328 = 33.2%). 17 assists and 12
          > "assist-like" plays. .
          >
          > He had 11 turnovers (11/328 = 3.3%) and was fouled 32 times with
          the ball
          > (32/328 = 9.7%) and was fouled 7 times away from the ball. 14 other
          > miscellaneous things (like jumpballs, deflections, timeouts, away
          from the
          > ball fouls, illegal screens, etc.) happened to round out the 328.

          So if Iverson was fouled with the ball 32 times, 7 in transition,
          that leaves 25. If 20 of these were while attempting to shoot, and
          15 (just guessing) were on layup attempts, he may have another (24-30
          FT, just a guess) equivalent of 12-15 shooting to add to his 8-27 FG.
          This is 20-42, which is right up there with his long-range TSP.

          > There were 170 possessions when Al did not touched the ball. Philly
          scored
          > 148 points or 0.87 pts/poss.
          > There were 119 possessions when Al touched the ball and didn't get
          a FGA or
          > a FTA. Philly scored 116 points or 0.97 pts/poss.
          > There were 172 possesions were Al had either a FGA or FTA. Philly
          scored 203
          > points or 1.18 pts/poss. 32 of the 203 points came from Philly
          hitting the
          > offensive boards (including Al recovering his own shot, so there is
          a little
          > double counting here).
          > I don't count the technicals Al shot as part of any possession.

          This makes a strong case that Iverson should in fact be taking the
          shots on this team. In fact, he wasn't in the game at all some of
          the time, and if this were more than 1 or 2 minutes it might need to
          be figured separately.
          Is it possible to break down the offensive rebounding resulting from
          the 3 categories (outside jumper, pullup jumper, layup)?
          And how did you classify those times when Iverson beat his man and
          lobbed it up over Shaq? Those seemed to fall at a high percentage.

          Mike Goodman
        • McKibbin, Stuart
          Stuart, have you broken down the FT attempts resulting from these 3 categories of shot attempts? My guess is that adding in those points and attempts will
          Message 4 of 10 , Oct 22, 2001
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            "Stuart, have you broken down the FT attempts resulting from these 3

            categories of shot attempts? My guess is that adding in those points

            and attempts will yield a much more favorable case for Iverson going

            to the rack. And that doesn't even consider damage done to the opponent by picking

            up fouls. Maybe this could be quantified? So if Iverson was fouled with the ball 32 times, 7 in transition,

            that leaves 25. If 20 of these were while attempting to shoot, and

            15 (just guessing) were on layup attempts, he may have another (24-30

            FT, just a guess) equivalent of 12-15 shooting to add to his 8-27 FG.

            This is 20-42, which is right up there with his long-range TSP."

            I quick run back through my chart breaks down the FT's like this:

            2 Technicals, 10 bonus fouls for 20 FTs, 8 Driving layups for 15 FTs (that includes one "and-1" FT),  4 pullup jumpers for 7FTs (that includes one "and-1" FT), and 1 jumpshot for 3 Fts. 16 times he was fouled without getting a FT. I'm missing a FT from Game 3, my charts say 12, the boxscore says 13. Perhaps it was a technical foul I didn't have the tape running for.

            So to continue your train of thought---Iverson took it to the rack with the intention of shooting it 51 times. He made 17, made 1 and was fouled, was fouled on 7 others for 14 FTs, and missed the other 26 attempts. Rather than see how many FTs Al actually made, I think it would be better to just multiply his FTA times his FT%. So the results were (18 + (15/2 x .8))/51 = 47%. (up from 41%) Which is just what you suspected, Mike.  I think what I should do is see which fouls came in transition and subtract those out (I never said 7 fouls came in transition).

          • McKibbin, Stuart
            Is it possible to break down the offensive rebounding resulting from the 3 categories (outside jumper, pullup jumper, layup)? And how did you classify those
            Message 5 of 10 , Oct 22, 2001
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              "Is it possible to break down the offensive rebounding resulting from the 3 categories (outside jumper, pullup jumper, layup)? And how did you classify those times when Iverson beat his man and lobbed it up over Shaq? Those seemed to fall at a high percentage."

              The teardrops over Shaq were counted as layups---he wasn't pointing his elbow at the rim.

              Well here's the total breakdown of offensive rebounding based on shot type:

              Jumpshot: 52 misses. Teammates recovered 8 offensive rebs plus two team rebounds. The eight off rebs were converted into 18 points, with Al scoring 3 of the 18. The two team rebs were converted into 5 points with Al scoring all 5.------Total 10 second chances, 23 points.

              Driving Jumpshot: 18 misses. Teammates recovered 6 offensive rebs which were converted into 4 points.

              Layups: 26 misses. Teammates recovered two that hit the rim and converted them into 5 points. Teammates recovered one blocked shot and converted it into 2 points. 2 team rebounds were converted into 3 points. Al recovered 4 of his own shots and he converted them into 4 points by himself.----Total 9 second chances, 14 points.

              In my mind what Doug Collins termed the "Iverson effect" should be offensive rebounds by teammates only (recovering blocked shots, team rebounds or Al getting his own misses shouldn't count). So I'd put the Iverson effect as 87 misses, 16 offensive rebounds, 27 points.

            • Dean Oliver
              ... offensive ... or Al ... effect as 87 ... I m completely swamped at work these days, so I don t have much time, but I do have one comment on this. It s
              Message 6 of 10 , Oct 22, 2001
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                --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "McKibbin, Stuart" <smckibbi@c...> wrote:
                > In my mind what Doug Collins termed the "Iverson effect" should be
                offensive
                > rebounds by teammates only (recovering blocked shots, team rebounds
                or Al
                > getting his own misses shouldn't count). So I'd put the Iverson
                effect as 87
                > misses, 16 offensive rebounds, 27 points.

                I'm completely swamped at work these days, so I don't have much time,
                but I do have one comment on this.

                It's interesting.

                OK, I have more than that. 16 rebounds of 87 misses isn't very
                good. The hypothesis has always been that teammates should rebound
                more of his misses proportionately. Apparently not true.

                However, 27 points on 16 orebs is pretty impressive. Much better
                than I thought it would be.

                Sooo... my calculations generally assume that a team performs just
                about as well off of misses as it does in a normal possession. 27
                points out of 87 misses is about right because the Sixers rebounded
                33% of their own missed shots in the postseason and scored 1.03 pts
                per possession. So my estimate on how many points should have been
                scored off of Iverson's misses is 1.03*0.327*87 = 29 pts.

                What I don't estimate very well, however, is that only 16 of his 87
                misses be rebounded. I estimated 0.327*87 = 28. This makes his
                offensive efficiency look higher than it was.

                On the other hand (I argue with myself a lot on these things), I do
                give credit for other players rebounding

                In the end, I estimated that Iverson scored on 48% of his 161
                possessions, "producing" 165 points. I defined possessions slightly
                differently -- a missed shot of his that is rebounded by a teammate
                is not considered a possession. I had him "winning" 2 of 5 games vs.
                the Lakers.

                OK, that's more time than I can afford. But I will study this stuff
                more after 11/19 when my life gets a little more normal. Very useful.

                Dean Oliver
                Journal of Basketball Studies
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