[APBR_analysis] Re: Jordan
> I agree with much of what is said on Jordan. II'm also sure it will help him. Watching European
> would pose one
> question. Do you think the fact that MJ will be
> allowed to play zone
> under the new rules might help his longevity?
basketball, I always took zone defense for granted.
It's more about being clever than being too athletic.
Even if Jordan is now 80% of his '98 self, he's still
athletic and he definitely is clever enough to change
and adjust his game as he has done many times in
I even tend to think that the new rules were made
just for MJ's comeback... with the zone defense
he will not often look rediculous when Iverson
for example will use his crossover. I've heard
also that he might move into small forward.
In offense, the fact that big men are not
allowed to stay in the paint for longer than 3''
will allow him to dunk instead of being rejected
(he sure can still dunk but over Shaq or Mutombo?
Not very likely to happen, at least more than once).
What do you think of my "conspiracy theory"? :)
I dont think there's any doubt that he can still
play well. If Dale Ellis can score 10 points in
his 38's, Jordan can sure score 20 (especially
playing in a team like Washington). He will
play well but seeing him being "just a good
player" is not exactly matching to his career
The fact is we don't really know how it will
be like and that's what makes it interesting.
Most guesses are that the battle "Jordan Vs Time"
will be something close to a draw cause it's the
most possible scenario. But then, either of
them might win totally as well...
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- I was looking back on our old projections on Jordan, now that his
season is done. A few things to comment on.
1. We seemed to think that the zone would help Jordan's longevity.
He didn't quite make it through the season, but I don't think the Wiz
played much zone.
2. Below are the stats I projected using similarity scores:
--- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
> --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
> > G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
> > Avg 69 33.1 7.9 17.3 0.8 2.3
> > Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
> > Avg 5.5 6.7 2.0 6.5 2.7
> > Plyr stl tov blk pf pts
> > Averages 0.99 2.3 0.42 2.2 22.0
> > Players fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
> > Averages 0.454 0.342 0.820 1.17 0.39
I feel pretty good about the games played being well less than 82.
The method forecasted injury. I don't feel very good about the FG%,
since MJ shot only 42%. Nor did he get to the line as much as this
said. Both of these are due to his jump shooting nature. The PPG of
22 is dead on. MikeG forecasted the same. Jordan's assists were
higher than forecasted here. MikeG forecasted that.
GP GS MIN PTS OFF DEF TOT AST STL BLK TO A/TO PF TECH
60 53 34.9 22.9 0.8 4.8 5.7 5.2 1.42 0.43 2.7 1.91 2.0 0.0
FGM FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% FTM FTA FT% 2PM 2PA 2P% PPS ADJ.
9.2 22.1 .416 0.2 0.9 .189 4.4 5.6 .790 541 1271 .426 1.04 .420
3. I did a second analysis before, looking for the most similar
current player to the above forecasts. It gave Cuttino Mobley.
> only player from last year who ranks as similar. His #'s
> Plyr G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
> mobley,cuttino 79 38.0 6.7 15.4 1.1 3.2
> Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
> mobley,cuttino 5.0 6.0 1.1 5.0 2.5
> Plyr Name stl tov blk pf pts
> mobley,cuttino 1.06 2.1 0.33 2.1 19.5
> Plyr Name fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
> mobley,cuttino 0.434 0.357 0.831 1.18 0.39
> That's a good match on a lot of things, but Mobley is not quite as
> efficient as the hypothetical Jordan, due to shooting
> And it's just hard thinking that Jordan is gonna be like Mobley.
It turned out that Mobley's numbers here are pretty similar to
Jordan's, except for the games played (and a few more 3's). So Mike
was a bit like Mobley.
If Mike comes back, I'm not sure if he would get better or worse. I
guess I'm thinking that he won't come back.
- --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "dlirag" <dlirag@h...> wrote:
> I can't recall right now if anyone made any definite predictionsClosest thing we had was an average I did of the teams having the
> regarding the Wizards' win-loss record this season. Were there any?
most similar players to Jordan:
"(One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the teams 3
years after: 45-35, 0.555. Highly variable, from 27-55 to 62-20.)"
I read a lot of predictions before the season and many of them were
around 35 wins.
- Right on. I had them going 32-50.
--- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
> --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "dlirag" <dlirag@h...> wrote:
> > I can't recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions
> > regarding the Wizards' win-loss record this season. Were there
> Closest thing we had was an average I did of the teams having the
> most similar players to Jordan:
> "(One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the teams 3
> years after: 45-35, 0.555. Highly variable, from 27-55 to 62-20.)"
> I read a lot of predictions before the season and many of them were
> around 35 wins.