Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.
 

[APBR_analysis] Re: Jordan

Expand Messages
  • nikoz6@yahoo.com
    ... I m also sure it will help him. Watching European basketball, I always took zone defense for granted. It s more about being clever than being too athletic.
    Message 1 of 11 , Oct 3, 2001
      > I agree with much of what is said on Jordan. I
      > would pose one
      > question. Do you think the fact that MJ will be
      > allowed to play zone
      > under the new rules might help his longevity?

      I'm also sure it will help him. Watching European
      basketball, I always took zone defense for granted.
      It's more about being clever than being too athletic.
      Even if Jordan is now 80% of his '98 self, he's still
      athletic and he definitely is clever enough to change
      and adjust his game as he has done many times in
      the past.

      I even tend to think that the new rules were made
      just for MJ's comeback... with the zone defense
      he will not often look rediculous when Iverson
      for example will use his crossover. I've heard
      also that he might move into small forward.

      In offense, the fact that big men are not
      allowed to stay in the paint for longer than 3''
      will allow him to dunk instead of being rejected
      (he sure can still dunk but over Shaq or Mutombo?
      Not very likely to happen, at least more than once).

      What do you think of my "conspiracy theory"? :)

      I dont think there's any doubt that he can still
      play well. If Dale Ellis can score 10 points in
      his 38's, Jordan can sure score 20 (especially
      playing in a team like Washington). He will
      play well but seeing him being "just a good
      player" is not exactly matching to his career
      till now.

      The fact is we don't really know how it will
      be like and that's what makes it interesting.
      Most guesses are that the battle "Jordan Vs Time"
      will be something close to a draw cause it's the
      most possible scenario. But then, either of
      them might win totally as well...

      __________________________________________________
      Do You Yahoo!?
      Listen to your Yahoo! Mail messages from any phone.
      http://phone.yahoo.com
    • HoopStudies
      I was looking back on our old projections on Jordan, now that his season is done. A few things to comment on. 1. We seemed to think that the zone would help
      Message 2 of 11 , Apr 3, 2002
        I was looking back on our old projections on Jordan, now that his
        season is done. A few things to comment on.

        1. We seemed to think that the zone would help Jordan's longevity.
        He didn't quite make it through the season, but I don't think the Wiz
        played much zone.

        2. Below are the stats I projected using similarity scores:

        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
        > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
        > > G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
        > > Avg 69 33.1 7.9 17.3 0.8 2.3
        > >
        > > Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
        > > Avg 5.5 6.7 2.0 6.5 2.7
        > >
        > > Plyr stl tov blk pf pts
        > > Averages 0.99 2.3 0.42 2.2 22.0
        > >
        > > Players fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
        > > Averages 0.454 0.342 0.820 1.17 0.39
        > >
        >

        I feel pretty good about the games played being well less than 82.
        The method forecasted injury. I don't feel very good about the FG%,
        since MJ shot only 42%. Nor did he get to the line as much as this
        said. Both of these are due to his jump shooting nature. The PPG of
        22 is dead on. MikeG forecasted the same. Jordan's assists were
        higher than forecasted here. MikeG forecasted that.

        GP GS MIN PTS OFF DEF TOT AST STL BLK TO A/TO PF TECH
        60 53 34.9 22.9 0.8 4.8 5.7 5.2 1.42 0.43 2.7 1.91 2.0 0.0

        FGM FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% FTM FTA FT% 2PM 2PA 2P% PPS ADJ.
        9.2 22.1 .416 0.2 0.9 .189 4.4 5.6 .790 541 1271 .426 1.04 .420


        3. I did a second analysis before, looking for the most similar
        current player to the above forecasts. It gave Cuttino Mobley.

        > only player from last year who ranks as similar. His #'s
        >
        > Plyr G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
        > mobley,cuttino 79 38.0 6.7 15.4 1.1 3.2
        >
        > Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
        > mobley,cuttino 5.0 6.0 1.1 5.0 2.5
        >
        > Plyr Name stl tov blk pf pts
        > mobley,cuttino 1.06 2.1 0.33 2.1 19.5
        >
        > Plyr Name fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
        > mobley,cuttino 0.434 0.357 0.831 1.18 0.39
        >
        > That's a good match on a lot of things, but Mobley is not quite as
        > efficient as the hypothetical Jordan, due to shooting
        percentage...
        > And it's just hard thinking that Jordan is gonna be like Mobley.

        It turned out that Mobley's numbers here are pretty similar to
        Jordan's, except for the games played (and a few more 3's). So Mike
        was a bit like Mobley.

        If Mike comes back, I'm not sure if he would get better or worse. I
        guess I'm thinking that he won't come back.

        DeanO
      • dlirag
        I can t recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions regarding the Wizards win-loss record this season. Were there any?
        Message 3 of 11 , Apr 6, 2002
          I can't recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions
          regarding the Wizards' win-loss record this season. Were there any?
        • HoopStudies
          ... Closest thing we had was an average I did of the teams having the most similar players to Jordan: (One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the
          Message 4 of 11 , Apr 7, 2002
            --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "dlirag" <dlirag@h...> wrote:
            > I can't recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions
            > regarding the Wizards' win-loss record this season. Were there any?

            Closest thing we had was an average I did of the teams having the
            most similar players to Jordan:

            "(One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the teams 3
            years after: 45-35, 0.555. Highly variable, from 27-55 to 62-20.)"

            I read a lot of predictions before the season and many of them were
            around 35 wins.

            DeanO
          • alleyoop2
            Right on. I had them going 32-50. http://www.alleyoop.com/preview/wash.htm ... any?
            Message 5 of 11 , Apr 10, 2002
              Right on. I had them going 32-50.

              http://www.alleyoop.com/preview/wash.htm

              --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
              > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "dlirag" <dlirag@h...> wrote:
              > > I can't recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions
              > > regarding the Wizards' win-loss record this season. Were there
              any?
              >
              > Closest thing we had was an average I did of the teams having the
              > most similar players to Jordan:
              >
              > "(One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the teams 3
              > years after: 45-35, 0.555. Highly variable, from 27-55 to 62-20.)"
              >
              > I read a lot of predictions before the season and many of them were
              > around 35 wins.
              >
              > DeanO
            Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.