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Re: Jordan

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  • Mike Goodman
    ... Definitely
    Message 1 of 11 , Oct 2, 2001
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., harlanzo@y... wrote:
      > I agree with much of what is said on Jordan. I would pose one
      > question. Do you think the fact that MJ will be allowed to play
      >zone
      > under the new rules might help his longevity

      Definitely
    • Dean Oliver
      ... Something else to add. The player-seasons most similar to this average are shown below: Player Team Season SimScore chambers,tom pho 1991 898*
      Message 2 of 11 , Oct 2, 2001
        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
        > G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
        > Avg 69 33.1 7.9 17.3 0.8 2.3
        >
        > Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
        > Avg 5.5 6.7 2.0 6.5 2.7
        >
        > Plyr stl tov blk pf pts
        > Averages 0.99 2.3 0.42 2.2 22.0
        >
        > Players fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
        > Averages 0.454 0.342 0.820 1.17 0.39
        >

        Something else to add. The player-seasons most similar to this
        average are shown below:

        Player Team Season SimScore
        chambers,tom pho 1991 898*
        mobley,cuttino hou 2001 892
        wilkins,dominiq lac 1994 888
        rice,glen cha 1998 887*
        pierce,ricky sea 1992 882
        smith,steve atl 1998 876*
        wilkins,dominiq atl 1990 874
        richmond,mitch gol 1990 874
        richmond,mitch gol 1989 872
        gill,kendall njn 1997 872
        tripucka,kelly cha 1989 871
        pierce,ricky mil 1990 871
        wilkins,dominiq atl 1989 870*
        robinson,glenn mil 1995 870
        johnson,larry cha 1996 869
        campbell,tony min 1990 863
        campbell,tony min 1991 857
        hawkins,hersey phi 1990 856
        houston,allan nyk 1998 855

        A few all-stars (the *s) near the top (and, of course, matches to
        some of the guys making the average), though no MVPs. Mobley is the
        only player from last year who ranks as similar. His #'s

        Plyr G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
        mobley,cuttino 79 38.0 6.7 15.4 1.1 3.2

        Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
        mobley,cuttino 5.0 6.0 1.1 5.0 2.5

        Plyr Name stl tov blk pf pts
        mobley,cuttino 1.06 2.1 0.33 2.1 19.5

        Plyr Name fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
        mobley,cuttino 0.434 0.357 0.831 1.18 0.39

        That's a good match on a lot of things, but Mobley is not quite as
        efficient as the hypothetical Jordan, due to shooting percentage...
        And it's just hard thinking that Jordan is gonna be like Mobley.

        Dean Oliver
        Journal of Basketball Studies
      • nikoz6@yahoo.com
        ... I m also sure it will help him. Watching European basketball, I always took zone defense for granted. It s more about being clever than being too athletic.
        Message 3 of 11 , Oct 3, 2001
          > I agree with much of what is said on Jordan. I
          > would pose one
          > question. Do you think the fact that MJ will be
          > allowed to play zone
          > under the new rules might help his longevity?

          I'm also sure it will help him. Watching European
          basketball, I always took zone defense for granted.
          It's more about being clever than being too athletic.
          Even if Jordan is now 80% of his '98 self, he's still
          athletic and he definitely is clever enough to change
          and adjust his game as he has done many times in
          the past.

          I even tend to think that the new rules were made
          just for MJ's comeback... with the zone defense
          he will not often look rediculous when Iverson
          for example will use his crossover. I've heard
          also that he might move into small forward.

          In offense, the fact that big men are not
          allowed to stay in the paint for longer than 3''
          will allow him to dunk instead of being rejected
          (he sure can still dunk but over Shaq or Mutombo?
          Not very likely to happen, at least more than once).

          What do you think of my "conspiracy theory"? :)

          I dont think there's any doubt that he can still
          play well. If Dale Ellis can score 10 points in
          his 38's, Jordan can sure score 20 (especially
          playing in a team like Washington). He will
          play well but seeing him being "just a good
          player" is not exactly matching to his career
          till now.

          The fact is we don't really know how it will
          be like and that's what makes it interesting.
          Most guesses are that the battle "Jordan Vs Time"
          will be something close to a draw cause it's the
          most possible scenario. But then, either of
          them might win totally as well...

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        • HoopStudies
          I was looking back on our old projections on Jordan, now that his season is done. A few things to comment on. 1. We seemed to think that the zone would help
          Message 4 of 11 , Apr 3, 2002
            I was looking back on our old projections on Jordan, now that his
            season is done. A few things to comment on.

            1. We seemed to think that the zone would help Jordan's longevity.
            He didn't quite make it through the season, but I don't think the Wiz
            played much zone.

            2. Below are the stats I projected using similarity scores:

            --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
            > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
            > > G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
            > > Avg 69 33.1 7.9 17.3 0.8 2.3
            > >
            > > Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
            > > Avg 5.5 6.7 2.0 6.5 2.7
            > >
            > > Plyr stl tov blk pf pts
            > > Averages 0.99 2.3 0.42 2.2 22.0
            > >
            > > Players fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
            > > Averages 0.454 0.342 0.820 1.17 0.39
            > >
            >

            I feel pretty good about the games played being well less than 82.
            The method forecasted injury. I don't feel very good about the FG%,
            since MJ shot only 42%. Nor did he get to the line as much as this
            said. Both of these are due to his jump shooting nature. The PPG of
            22 is dead on. MikeG forecasted the same. Jordan's assists were
            higher than forecasted here. MikeG forecasted that.

            GP GS MIN PTS OFF DEF TOT AST STL BLK TO A/TO PF TECH
            60 53 34.9 22.9 0.8 4.8 5.7 5.2 1.42 0.43 2.7 1.91 2.0 0.0

            FGM FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% FTM FTA FT% 2PM 2PA 2P% PPS ADJ.
            9.2 22.1 .416 0.2 0.9 .189 4.4 5.6 .790 541 1271 .426 1.04 .420


            3. I did a second analysis before, looking for the most similar
            current player to the above forecasts. It gave Cuttino Mobley.

            > only player from last year who ranks as similar. His #'s
            >
            > Plyr G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
            > mobley,cuttino 79 38.0 6.7 15.4 1.1 3.2
            >
            > Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
            > mobley,cuttino 5.0 6.0 1.1 5.0 2.5
            >
            > Plyr Name stl tov blk pf pts
            > mobley,cuttino 1.06 2.1 0.33 2.1 19.5
            >
            > Plyr Name fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
            > mobley,cuttino 0.434 0.357 0.831 1.18 0.39
            >
            > That's a good match on a lot of things, but Mobley is not quite as
            > efficient as the hypothetical Jordan, due to shooting
            percentage...
            > And it's just hard thinking that Jordan is gonna be like Mobley.

            It turned out that Mobley's numbers here are pretty similar to
            Jordan's, except for the games played (and a few more 3's). So Mike
            was a bit like Mobley.

            If Mike comes back, I'm not sure if he would get better or worse. I
            guess I'm thinking that he won't come back.

            DeanO
          • dlirag
            I can t recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions regarding the Wizards win-loss record this season. Were there any?
            Message 5 of 11 , Apr 6, 2002
              I can't recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions
              regarding the Wizards' win-loss record this season. Were there any?
            • HoopStudies
              ... Closest thing we had was an average I did of the teams having the most similar players to Jordan: (One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the
              Message 6 of 11 , Apr 7, 2002
                --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "dlirag" <dlirag@h...> wrote:
                > I can't recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions
                > regarding the Wizards' win-loss record this season. Were there any?

                Closest thing we had was an average I did of the teams having the
                most similar players to Jordan:

                "(One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the teams 3
                years after: 45-35, 0.555. Highly variable, from 27-55 to 62-20.)"

                I read a lot of predictions before the season and many of them were
                around 35 wins.

                DeanO
              • alleyoop2
                Right on. I had them going 32-50. http://www.alleyoop.com/preview/wash.htm ... any?
                Message 7 of 11 , Apr 10, 2002
                  Right on. I had them going 32-50.

                  http://www.alleyoop.com/preview/wash.htm

                  --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
                  > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "dlirag" <dlirag@h...> wrote:
                  > > I can't recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions
                  > > regarding the Wizards' win-loss record this season. Were there
                  any?
                  >
                  > Closest thing we had was an average I did of the teams having the
                  > most similar players to Jordan:
                  >
                  > "(One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the teams 3
                  > years after: 45-35, 0.555. Highly variable, from 27-55 to 62-20.)"
                  >
                  > I read a lot of predictions before the season and many of them were
                  > around 35 wins.
                  >
                  > DeanO
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