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Re: Jordan

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  • harlanzo@yahoo.com
    I agree with much of what is said on Jordan. I would pose one question. Do you think the fact that MJ will be allowed to play zone under the new rules might
    Message 1 of 11 , Oct 2, 2001
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      I agree with much of what is said on Jordan. I would pose one
      question. Do you think the fact that MJ will be allowed to play zone
      under the new rules might help his longevity? I can see arguments
      both ways on this and I don't have an opinion but I am interested in
      what people think.


      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
      > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., harlanzo@y... wrote:
      > > Reaction has been mixed on the Jordan comeback. Many have argued
      > > about whether MJ's decision was "right" in terms of how it might
      > > threaten his historical context and storybook ending. I really
      > don't
      > > have a problem with the return. I am much more interested in
      > seeing
      > > how a 38-year old shooting guard can perform in the NBA.
      >
      > Well, since you showed that there really weren't good 38-year old
      > comparisons to be made, I took a slightly different tack. I
      > calculated the most similar players to Jordan in his last playing
      > year:
      >
      > Player Team Season SimScore
      > wilkins,dominiq atl 1989 887
      > wilkins,dominiq atl 1990 879
      > jordan,michael chi 1997 869
      > jordan,michael chi 1996 860
      > bryant,kobe lal 2001 860
      > wilkins,dominiq atl 1992 856
      > wilkins,dominiq atl 1991 856
      > chambers,tom pho 1990 853
      > Hill,Grant det 2000 849
      > chambers,tom pho 1989 849
      > malone,karl uta 1996 847
      > wilkins,dominiq atl 1993 843
      > carter,vince tor 2000 841
      >
      > and decided to look at what they did 3 years later, regardless of
      > age. Of this list,Chambers or Wilkins might be considered the best
      > fit when considering age. The inclusion of Kobe, Vinsanity, and
      > Grant Hill is interesting, but doesn't help at all because the
      > seasons are too recent to tell us anything about 3 yrs down the
      line.
      > Given that they should be improving (maybe not Hill) and Jordan
      > should be declining means that we probably wouldn't trust those
      > comparisons anyway. So, the seasons we can use to estimate what
      > happens 3 yrs later:
      >
      > Wilkins 92
      > Wilkins 93
      > Wilkins 94
      > Wilkins 95
      > Chambers 92
      > Chambers 93
      > Malone 99
      >
      > These seasons are shown below:
      >
      > G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
      > chambers,tom 69 28.2 6.2 14.3 0.3 0.7
      > chambers,tom 73 23.6 4.4 9.8 0.2 0.4
      > wilkins,dominiq 42 38.1 10.1 21.8 0.9 3.0
      > wilkins,dominiq 71 37.3 10.4 22.3 1.7 4.5
      > wilkins,dominiq 74 35.6 9.4 21.4 1.1 4.0
      > wilkins,dominiq 77 31.5 6.4 15.2 1.5 3.8
      > malone,karl 80 37.4 8.0 16.3 0.0 0.0
      > Avg 69 33.1 7.9 17.3 0.8 2.3
      >
      > Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
      > chambers,tom 3.7 4.5 1.2 5.8 2.1
      > chambers,tom 3.3 3.9 1.3 4.7 1.4
      > wilkins,dominiq 7.0 8.4 2.5 7.0 3.8
      > wilkins,dominiq 7.3 8.8 2.6 6.8 3.2
      > wilkins,dominiq 6.0 7.1 2.5 6.5 2.3
      > wilkins,dominiq 3.5 4.4 2.0 5.2 2.2
      > malone,karl 7.7 9.8 2.2 9.4 4.1
      > Avg 5.5 6.7 2.0 6.5 2.7
      >
      > Plyr stl tov blk pf pts
      > chambers,tom 0.83 1.5 0.54 2.8 16.3
      > chambers,tom 0.59 1.3 0.32 2.9 12.2
      > wilkins,dominiq 1.24 2.9 0.57 1.8 28.1
      > wilkins,dominiq 0.99 2.6 0.38 1.7 29.9
      > wilkins,dominiq 1.24 2.3 0.41 1.7 26.0
      > wilkins,dominiq 0.79 2.2 0.18 1.7 17.8
      > malone,karl 1.27 3.3 0.57 2.7 23.8
      > Averages 0.99 2.3 0.42 2.2 22.0
      >
      > Players fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
      > chambers,tom 0.431 0.367 0.830 1.38 0.31
      > chambers,tom 0.447 0.393 0.837 1.10 0.40
      > wilkins,dominiq 0.464 0.289 0.835 1.30 0.39
      > wilkins,dominiq 0.468 0.380 0.828 1.23 0.40
      > wilkins,dominiq 0.440 0.288 0.847 0.98 0.33
      > wilkins,dominiq 0.424 0.388 0.782 0.96 0.29
      > malone,karl 0.493 0.000 0.788 1.24 0.60
      > Averages 0.454 0.342 0.820 1.17 0.39
      >
      > Frankly, these averages don't look all that different from what
      > harlanzo and Mike proposed. I don't look at that as a pure scorer;
      > he's still balanced. He appears to play less, too, only 69 games.
      >
      > I plugged in these Average #'s to determine how good a player this
      > is, from my calculations. I get a player like this:
      >
      > Scor. Poss. Floor RTG Points
      > Poss. . Pct. . Prod.
      > 699 1343 0.520 109.6 1471
      >
      > Defensive Stops Def. Net Net Net
      > Total /Min /Poss Rtg. Win% W L
      > 442 0.192 0.493 102.6 0.746 9.5 3.2
      >
      > Definitely still a good player, but not like the Mike of old.
      > Producing a little over 20 ppg, but not as efficiently (his lowest
      > rating before was 111.4 in his last season). The defensive #'s are
      > highly uncertain, but actually based on a team context like the
      > Clippers of last year, which may be a little too good for my
      tastes,
      > but not a bad comparison.
      >
      > Of course, this is missing the age factor, but harlanzo's was
      missing
      > the quality factor -- both of which are important -- showing how
      > unique MJ is.
      >
      > (One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the teams 3
      > years after: 45-35, 0.555. Highly variable, from 27-55 to 62-20.)
      >
      > Dean Oliver
      > Journal of Basketball Studies
    • Mike Goodman
      ... Definitely
      Message 2 of 11 , Oct 2, 2001
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        --- In APBR_analysis@y..., harlanzo@y... wrote:
        > I agree with much of what is said on Jordan. I would pose one
        > question. Do you think the fact that MJ will be allowed to play
        >zone
        > under the new rules might help his longevity

        Definitely
      • Dean Oliver
        ... Something else to add. The player-seasons most similar to this average are shown below: Player Team Season SimScore chambers,tom pho 1991 898*
        Message 3 of 11 , Oct 2, 2001
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          --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
          > G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
          > Avg 69 33.1 7.9 17.3 0.8 2.3
          >
          > Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
          > Avg 5.5 6.7 2.0 6.5 2.7
          >
          > Plyr stl tov blk pf pts
          > Averages 0.99 2.3 0.42 2.2 22.0
          >
          > Players fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
          > Averages 0.454 0.342 0.820 1.17 0.39
          >

          Something else to add. The player-seasons most similar to this
          average are shown below:

          Player Team Season SimScore
          chambers,tom pho 1991 898*
          mobley,cuttino hou 2001 892
          wilkins,dominiq lac 1994 888
          rice,glen cha 1998 887*
          pierce,ricky sea 1992 882
          smith,steve atl 1998 876*
          wilkins,dominiq atl 1990 874
          richmond,mitch gol 1990 874
          richmond,mitch gol 1989 872
          gill,kendall njn 1997 872
          tripucka,kelly cha 1989 871
          pierce,ricky mil 1990 871
          wilkins,dominiq atl 1989 870*
          robinson,glenn mil 1995 870
          johnson,larry cha 1996 869
          campbell,tony min 1990 863
          campbell,tony min 1991 857
          hawkins,hersey phi 1990 856
          houston,allan nyk 1998 855

          A few all-stars (the *s) near the top (and, of course, matches to
          some of the guys making the average), though no MVPs. Mobley is the
          only player from last year who ranks as similar. His #'s

          Plyr G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
          mobley,cuttino 79 38.0 6.7 15.4 1.1 3.2

          Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
          mobley,cuttino 5.0 6.0 1.1 5.0 2.5

          Plyr Name stl tov blk pf pts
          mobley,cuttino 1.06 2.1 0.33 2.1 19.5

          Plyr Name fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
          mobley,cuttino 0.434 0.357 0.831 1.18 0.39

          That's a good match on a lot of things, but Mobley is not quite as
          efficient as the hypothetical Jordan, due to shooting percentage...
          And it's just hard thinking that Jordan is gonna be like Mobley.

          Dean Oliver
          Journal of Basketball Studies
        • nikoz6@yahoo.com
          ... I m also sure it will help him. Watching European basketball, I always took zone defense for granted. It s more about being clever than being too athletic.
          Message 4 of 11 , Oct 3, 2001
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            > I agree with much of what is said on Jordan. I
            > would pose one
            > question. Do you think the fact that MJ will be
            > allowed to play zone
            > under the new rules might help his longevity?

            I'm also sure it will help him. Watching European
            basketball, I always took zone defense for granted.
            It's more about being clever than being too athletic.
            Even if Jordan is now 80% of his '98 self, he's still
            athletic and he definitely is clever enough to change
            and adjust his game as he has done many times in
            the past.

            I even tend to think that the new rules were made
            just for MJ's comeback... with the zone defense
            he will not often look rediculous when Iverson
            for example will use his crossover. I've heard
            also that he might move into small forward.

            In offense, the fact that big men are not
            allowed to stay in the paint for longer than 3''
            will allow him to dunk instead of being rejected
            (he sure can still dunk but over Shaq or Mutombo?
            Not very likely to happen, at least more than once).

            What do you think of my "conspiracy theory"? :)

            I dont think there's any doubt that he can still
            play well. If Dale Ellis can score 10 points in
            his 38's, Jordan can sure score 20 (especially
            playing in a team like Washington). He will
            play well but seeing him being "just a good
            player" is not exactly matching to his career
            till now.

            The fact is we don't really know how it will
            be like and that's what makes it interesting.
            Most guesses are that the battle "Jordan Vs Time"
            will be something close to a draw cause it's the
            most possible scenario. But then, either of
            them might win totally as well...

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          • HoopStudies
            I was looking back on our old projections on Jordan, now that his season is done. A few things to comment on. 1. We seemed to think that the zone would help
            Message 5 of 11 , Apr 3, 2002
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              I was looking back on our old projections on Jordan, now that his
              season is done. A few things to comment on.

              1. We seemed to think that the zone would help Jordan's longevity.
              He didn't quite make it through the season, but I don't think the Wiz
              played much zone.

              2. Below are the stats I projected using similarity scores:

              --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
              > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean Oliver" <deano@t...> wrote:
              > > G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
              > > Avg 69 33.1 7.9 17.3 0.8 2.3
              > >
              > > Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
              > > Avg 5.5 6.7 2.0 6.5 2.7
              > >
              > > Plyr stl tov blk pf pts
              > > Averages 0.99 2.3 0.42 2.2 22.0
              > >
              > > Players fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
              > > Averages 0.454 0.342 0.820 1.17 0.39
              > >
              >

              I feel pretty good about the games played being well less than 82.
              The method forecasted injury. I don't feel very good about the FG%,
              since MJ shot only 42%. Nor did he get to the line as much as this
              said. Both of these are due to his jump shooting nature. The PPG of
              22 is dead on. MikeG forecasted the same. Jordan's assists were
              higher than forecasted here. MikeG forecasted that.

              GP GS MIN PTS OFF DEF TOT AST STL BLK TO A/TO PF TECH
              60 53 34.9 22.9 0.8 4.8 5.7 5.2 1.42 0.43 2.7 1.91 2.0 0.0

              FGM FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% FTM FTA FT% 2PM 2PA 2P% PPS ADJ.
              9.2 22.1 .416 0.2 0.9 .189 4.4 5.6 .790 541 1271 .426 1.04 .420


              3. I did a second analysis before, looking for the most similar
              current player to the above forecasts. It gave Cuttino Mobley.

              > only player from last year who ranks as similar. His #'s
              >
              > Plyr G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
              > mobley,cuttino 79 38.0 6.7 15.4 1.1 3.2
              >
              > Plyr ftm fta oreb treb ast
              > mobley,cuttino 5.0 6.0 1.1 5.0 2.5
              >
              > Plyr Name stl tov blk pf pts
              > mobley,cuttino 1.06 2.1 0.33 2.1 19.5
              >
              > Plyr Name fg% fg3% ft% ast/tov fta/fga
              > mobley,cuttino 0.434 0.357 0.831 1.18 0.39
              >
              > That's a good match on a lot of things, but Mobley is not quite as
              > efficient as the hypothetical Jordan, due to shooting
              percentage...
              > And it's just hard thinking that Jordan is gonna be like Mobley.

              It turned out that Mobley's numbers here are pretty similar to
              Jordan's, except for the games played (and a few more 3's). So Mike
              was a bit like Mobley.

              If Mike comes back, I'm not sure if he would get better or worse. I
              guess I'm thinking that he won't come back.

              DeanO
            • dlirag
              I can t recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions regarding the Wizards win-loss record this season. Were there any?
              Message 6 of 11 , Apr 6, 2002
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                I can't recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions
                regarding the Wizards' win-loss record this season. Were there any?
              • HoopStudies
                ... Closest thing we had was an average I did of the teams having the most similar players to Jordan: (One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the
                Message 7 of 11 , Apr 7, 2002
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                  --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "dlirag" <dlirag@h...> wrote:
                  > I can't recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions
                  > regarding the Wizards' win-loss record this season. Were there any?

                  Closest thing we had was an average I did of the teams having the
                  most similar players to Jordan:

                  "(One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the teams 3
                  years after: 45-35, 0.555. Highly variable, from 27-55 to 62-20.)"

                  I read a lot of predictions before the season and many of them were
                  around 35 wins.

                  DeanO
                • alleyoop2
                  Right on. I had them going 32-50. http://www.alleyoop.com/preview/wash.htm ... any?
                  Message 8 of 11 , Apr 10, 2002
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                    Right on. I had them going 32-50.

                    http://www.alleyoop.com/preview/wash.htm

                    --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "HoopStudies" <deano@r...> wrote:
                    > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "dlirag" <dlirag@h...> wrote:
                    > > I can't recall right now if anyone made any definite predictions
                    > > regarding the Wizards' win-loss record this season. Were there
                    any?
                    >
                    > Closest thing we had was an average I did of the teams having the
                    > most similar players to Jordan:
                    >
                    > "(One last thing -- the average winning percentage of the teams 3
                    > years after: 45-35, 0.555. Highly variable, from 27-55 to 62-20.)"
                    >
                    > I read a lot of predictions before the season and many of them were
                    > around 35 wins.
                    >
                    > DeanO
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