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Re: Season-per-game Similarity tests

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... the ... Exactly right. I don t have a very complete db of ages/birthdates. Once I do, I would certainly include it in trying to make predictive similarity
    Message 1 of 3 , Sep 18, 2001
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., harlanzo@y... wrote:
      > This is just another note in passing but shouldn't age also be an
      > issue in comparison? It is obviously not relevant if you just want
      > to know a player who could fill a similar role to a player on your
      > team. However, if the point of your comparison is to figure out
      the
      > upside of your player I think accounting for the age difference is
      > the players maybe relevant.

      Exactly right. I don't have a very complete db of ages/birthdates.
      Once I do, I would certainly include it in trying to make predictive
      similarity scores. Below, for instance, Dennis Scott was 22 in his
      91 season, 2 years older than Miller -- a pretty important
      difference, I'm thinking. He may still end up the best comparison,
      though, because of the dearth of 20 year olds in the NBA who did
      anything. (Michael Dickerson, by the way, was 23 in 1999.)


      > > scott,dennis orl 1991 902
      > > dickerson,micha hou 1999a 902
      > > lenard,voshon den 2001 901
      > >
      > > No real stars here, but, as James likes to point out, one of the
      > most
      > > important things is age. Miller was only 20 last year and all
      > these
      > > guys above were older. I'd really need to control for age.
      Dennis
      > > Scott's '91 season may be about right age-wise (but I don't have
      my
      > > encyclopedia in front of me).
      > >
      > > G Min fgm fga fg3m fg3a
      > > Miller 82 29.2 4.5 10.4 1.8 4.5
      > > Scott 82 28.5 6.1 14.4 1.5 4.1
      > >
      > > ftm fta oreb treb ast
      > > 1.1 1.6 0.8 4.0 1.7
      > > 1.9 2.5 0.8 2.9 1.6
      > >
      > > stl tov blk pf dq pts
      > > 0.61 1.2 0.23 2.5 0.0 12.0
      > > 0.76 1.5 0.30 2.5 0.0 15.7
      > >
      > > Pretty similar seasons, though Miller didn't do quite as much
      with
      > > his
      > > minutes (might also be a decline in league pace).

      The pace declined from 100 poss/G in '91 to 94 /game last year. The
      league rating went from 105.9 to 101.3. Miller had a tougher context
      to put up similar numbers. That, plus the age difference, suggests
      that Miller should be a little better than Dennis Scott.

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
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