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Re: [APBR_analysis] Antoine in Dallas

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  • Stephen Greenwell
    Antoine just got traded to Dallas. Any speculation on his production there? He averaged 19.9 shots per game last year and I can t see him getting that many on
    Message 1 of 12 , Oct 20, 2003
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      Antoine just got traded to Dallas.  Any speculation on his
      production there?  He averaged 19.9 shots per game last year and I
      can't see him getting that many on Dallas.  I wonder to what extent
      Dallas' fast pace offense will negate the fewer possessions Antoine
      will get.  The other interesting question is how Toine's field goal
      percentage will be affected by the fewer possessions (assuming they
      are reduced), will he limit his shots to high percentage one or will
      he be a three point bomber even more exclusively than he is now? 
      (He shoots about 7.5 3s per game now)

      I don't really see how this helps the Mavericks at all, but to each his own.  Living in Rhode Island, I've had the "pleasure" of watching Antoine for many years, and he's never struck me as a particularly great player.  I assume that his percentages will increase a bit because he won't be playing 40+ minutes a night, but it doesn't change the fact that he's never been choosey about the shots he takes.  I don't think Nelly will stand for him being solely a three point specialist, since Nash, Dirk, Finley, and the ball boy all shoot for a higher pct. then Walker.

      If anything, I agree with ESPN's Fantasy Spin - this move *really* helps Raef Lafrentz.  Assuming that Battie stays healthy enough to play center, or that Baker really is in shape, LaFrentz should be able to have his way inside and outside against power forwards in the weak eastern conference.  I also think he's a much better scoring option then Walker, regardless of whether he's playing the 4 or 5.  Finally, since Delk is also included in this trade, this opens up more time for Kedrick Brown, Marcus Banks, or whoever else they want to play.
    • Mike G
      ... It may be that Jamison is the odd man out. I m looking for a midseason trade (again). Someone will surely be unhappy. Walker looks to be headed for Van
      Message 2 of 12 , Oct 20, 2003
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "harlanzo" <harlanzo@y...>
        wrote:
        > Antoine just got traded to Dallas. Any speculation on his
        > production there?

        It may be that Jamison is the odd man out. I'm looking for a
        midseason trade (again). Someone will surely be unhappy.

        Walker looks to be headed for Van Exel's role, more than anything.
        He'll also be crashing the boards.

        Last year's Celts set a record for 3-pt. attempts (2155) (the '96
        Mavs have the record for 3's made (735)). If everyone on the Mavs
        shoots 3s the way they did last year, they'll be 857 of 2382.

        Further, this year's bunch totalled 112.8 FGA last year. You have
        to go back to the '62 Celtics to find such a gunning group.
      • Dean Oliver
        ... From Dallas perspective, that seems like the best thing that will come of it. I don t understand either of their big trades recently. Shuffling the deck
        Message 3 of 12 , Oct 20, 2003
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          -----Original Message-----
          > From: bchaikin1 [mailto:bchaikin@...]
          > Sent: Monday, October 20, 2003 8:38 PM
          > To: APBR_analysis-owner@yahoogroups.com
          > Subject: Re: Antoine in Dallas
          >
          > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G" <msg_53@h...> wrote:
          > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "harlanzo" <harlanzo@y...>
          > > wrote:
          > > > Antoine just got traded to Dallas. Any speculation on his
          > > > production there?
          > >
          > > It may be that Jamison is the odd man out. I'm looking for a
          > > midseason trade (again). Someone will surely be unhappy.
          > >
          > > Walker looks to be headed for Van Exel's role, more than anything.
          > > He'll also be crashing the boards.
          > >
          > > Last year's Celts set a record for 3-pt. attempts (2155) (the '96
          > > Mavs have the record for 3's made (735)). If everyone on the Mavs
          > > shoots 3s the way they did last year, they'll be 857 of 2382.
          > >
          > > Further, this year's bunch totalled 112.8 FGA last year. You have
          > > to go back to the '62 Celtics to find such a gunning group.
          >
          > anyone other than me think this trade may have been made solely for
          > salary considerations and nothing else? and not for the mavs to get
          > in particular antoine walker, but solely for someone to take lafrentz
          > and not to get a big contract in return?...
          >
          > walker's contract, from what i could find out, calls for him to get
          > $28 million over the next 2 seasons, but lafrentz's calls for about
          > $60 million over the next 6 seasons. knowing nowitzki would be
          > playing alot at center, they chose to get rid of the higher priced
          > backup center between raef lafrentz and shawn bradley, and found a
          > willing taker in celtic GM danny ainge...
          >
          > thoughts?....

          From Dallas' perspective, that seems like the best thing that will come of
          it. I don't understand either of their big trades recently. Shuffling the
          deck usually brings you closer to .500, not what they want to do. Loading
          up at the forward slot doesn't seem to help when that's a pretty solid
          position. Nellie is a great coach and is very good at making players
          better. From that perspective only do I see the Mavs making competitive
          gains. In every other way, it looks like a salary dump.

          I'm a little surprised that Boston wanted to take on another big contract
          for a mediocre big man. But he fits pretty well there, as does Welsch.
          Losing Delk hurts a little because he fit pretty well. But Ainge had to do
          it. He had to dump Walker before the cancer of their relationship lowered
          Walker's value.

          DeanO
        • schtevie2003
          ... ... anything. ... 96 ... the Mavs ... have ... solely for ... mavs to get ... lafrentz ... get ... about ... be ... priced ... found a ...
          Message 4 of 12 , Oct 21, 2003
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            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver"
            <deano@r...> wrote:
            > -----Original Message-----
            > > From: bchaikin1 [mailto:bchaikin@b...]
            > > Sent: Monday, October 20, 2003 8:38 PM
            > > To: APBR_analysis-owner@yahoogroups.com
            > > Subject: Re: Antoine in Dallas
            > >
            > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Mike G"
            <msg_53@h...> wrote:
            > > > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "harlanzo"
            <harlanzo@y...>
            > > > wrote:
            > > > > Antoine just got traded to Dallas. Any speculation on his
            > > > > production there?
            > > >
            > > > It may be that Jamison is the odd man out. I'm looking for a
            > > > midseason trade (again). Someone will surely be unhappy.
            > > >
            > > > Walker looks to be headed for Van Exel's role, more than
            anything.
            > > > He'll also be crashing the boards.
            > > >
            > > > Last year's Celts set a record for 3-pt. attempts (2155) (the
            '96
            > > > Mavs have the record for 3's made (735)). If everyone on
            the Mavs
            > > > shoots 3s the way they did last year, they'll be 857 of 2382.
            > > >
            > > > Further, this year's bunch totalled 112.8 FGA last year. You
            have
            > > > to go back to the '62 Celtics to find such a gunning group.
            > >
            > > anyone other than me think this trade may have been made
            solely for
            > > salary considerations and nothing else? and not for the
            mavs to get
            > > in particular antoine walker, but solely for someone to take
            lafrentz
            > > and not to get a big contract in return?...
            > >
            > > walker's contract, from what i could find out, calls for him to
            get
            > > $28 million over the next 2 seasons, but lafrentz's calls for
            about
            > > $60 million over the next 6 seasons. knowing nowitzki would
            be
            > > playing alot at center, they chose to get rid of the higher
            priced
            > > backup center between raef lafrentz and shawn bradley, and
            found a
            > > willing taker in celtic GM danny ainge...
            > >
            > > thoughts?....
            >
            > From Dallas' perspective, that seems like the best thing that
            will come of
            > it. I don't understand either of their big trades recently.
            Shuffling the
            > deck usually brings you closer to .500, not what they want to
            do. Loading
            > up at the forward slot doesn't seem to help when that's a pretty
            solid
            > position. Nellie is a great coach and is very good at making
            players
            > better. From that perspective only do I see the Mavs making
            competitive
            > gains. In every other way, it looks like a salary dump.
            >
            > I'm a little surprised that Boston wanted to take on another big
            contract
            > for a mediocre big man. But he fits pretty well there, as does
            Welsch.
            > Losing Delk hurts a little because he fit pretty well. But Ainge
            had to do
            > it. He had to dump Walker before the cancer of their
            relationship lowered
            > Walker's value.
            >
            > DeanO

            Here's an imperfect summary of what the morning paper said in
            Boston. From a Boston perspective, the downside avoided
            (apart from a distaste that Ainge had for Walker's game) was the
            collective (?) sense of the braintrust that a championship
            couldn't be won with a Pierce-Walker core, and there was also
            the thorny issue on the horizon of his contract extension. On the
            upside (besides Lafrentz' attributes) the deal clears 5 million in
            cap space in three years (making a mid-level exception
            possible), gains a presumably low first rounder next year, and
            brings in Jiri Welsch, who Ainge apparently really likes as a two
            way guard who has all-around potential and is tough. So the
            Celtics see this as a three-year plan, with the hope for little in the
            way of short term shortfalls (In that vein, they see Lafrentz as a
            better outside shooter, low post scorer, and defender, with
            Pierce soaking up more shot attempts and room for their other
            forward prospects to grow - again compatible with the three year
            horizon.)

            As for the Dallas perspective, it is "win now baby" and they noted
            that Nellie is best able to fit in disparate talents and what they
            want from Walker is a point forward, but one who will not be
            allowed to take eight three-point attempts per game.

            The bottom line from the acid Boston media is that Ainge did
            good, getting the best deal possible. And upon reading the
            analysis this morning, I feel better about it than yesterday, though
            planning on potential tends to make me cringe. Unlike many, I
            thought that Walker's game was maturing, and his bad
            tendencies were being attenuated, if not eliminated.
          • roland_beech
            personally I think Walker is a good player and the Celtics are making a mistake in unloading him. Last season with Walker on court the Celtics outscored
            Message 5 of 12 , Oct 21, 2003
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              personally I think Walker is a good player and the Celtics are
              making a mistake in unloading him.

              Last season with Walker on court the Celtics outscored opponents by
              +0.8 pts per 48minutes, when he was off court they were -6.3 points
              per 48min, so he had a net unadjusted "effect" of +7.1

              this was third best on the team behind Pierce (+10.1) and Battie
              (+9.6).

              When Pierce and Walker were on the court together, Boston was +2.1
              points per 48, whereas when Pierce was on the court without Walker
              the Celtics were -0.6

              While his shot selection is suspect, he opened up the offense for
              the team significantly -- with Walker on court Boston had an
              effective field goal % (adjusted for 3's) of 47.4%, whereas they
              were only 44.2% when he was off the floor. They also committed
              three fewer turnovers per 48min with him out there.

              So, I think Boston will be hurting from this and Pierce will
              noticeably miss his free-shooting buddy. Of course, the more
              interesting question is how Walker will fit in with the Mavs stack
              of talent...
            • Stephen Greenwell
              personally I think Walker is a good player and the Celtics are making a mistake in unloading him. Last season with Walker on court the Celtics outscored
              Message 6 of 12 , Oct 21, 2003
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                personally I think Walker is a good player and the Celtics are
                making a mistake in unloading him.

                Last season with Walker on court the Celtics outscored opponents by
                +0.8 pts per 48minutes, when he was off court they were -6.3 points
                per 48min, so he had a net unadjusted "effect" of +7.1

                this was third best on the team behind Pierce (+10.1) and Battie
                (+9.6).

                When Pierce and Walker were on the court together, Boston was +2.1
                points per 48, whereas when Pierce was on the court without Walker
                the Celtics were -0.6

                While his shot selection is suspect, he opened up the offense for
                the team significantly -- with Walker on court Boston had an
                effective field goal % (adjusted for 3's) of 47.4%, whereas they
                were only 44.2% when he was off the floor.  They also committed
                three fewer turnovers per 48min with him out there.

                So, I think Boston will be hurting from this and Pierce will
                noticeably miss his free-shooting buddy.   Of course, the more
                interesting question is how Walker will fit in with the Mavs stack
                of talent...

                Wouldn't that be more of an indictment against the Celtics bench?  I don't think Toine is a great player, but even I have to admit that he's much better than the alternatives that the Celtics had at the four last year - Walter McCarty, Vin Baker, and Mark Blount.  The lack of depth on the Celtics was the primary reason you saw Walker and Pierce playing forty minutes a game.

              • Mike G
                ... I think both of these differences are significant. Surely it wasn t the weak bench that backed up Walker accounting for .032 lower shooting, nor for an
                Message 7 of 12 , Oct 21, 2003
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                  --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "roland_beech" <roland@t...>
                  wrote:
                  > ...-- with Walker on court Boston had an
                  > effective field goal % (adjusted for 3's) of 47.4%, whereas they
                  > were only 44.2% when he was off the floor. They also committed
                  > three fewer turnovers per 48min with him out there.

                  I think both of these differences are significant. Surely it wasn't
                  the weak bench that backed up Walker accounting for .032 lower
                  shooting, nor for an increase of roughly 20% in the team turnover
                  rate.

                  This makes a strong case for the intangibles that a guy with
                  unlimited shooting range (coupled with no inhibitions) brings to a
                  team -- at least, to a team with shallow talent.

                  How did Walker's off-court status affect Pierce's shooting?


                  p.s., Roland: How about including FT in your effective % ?
                  Sometimes a defender may show a lowered opponent eFG%; but what if
                  he fouls a lot? The combined scoring efficiency may show an
                  opposite trend from the FG%
                • roland_beech
                  ... I ll look into getting Pierce stats with and without Walker on the court ... certainly a good point, Bob has also suggested a scoring percentage number
                  Message 8 of 12 , Oct 21, 2003
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                    >
                    > How did Walker's off-court status affect Pierce's shooting?
                    >

                    I'll look into getting Pierce stats with and without Walker on the
                    court

                    >
                    > p.s., Roland: How about including FT in your effective % ?
                    > Sometimes a defender may show a lowered opponent eFG%; but what if
                    > he fouls a lot? The combined scoring efficiency may show an
                    > opposite trend from the FG%

                    certainly a good point, Bob has also suggested a "scoring
                    percentage" number that includes free throws
                  • Daniel Dickey
                    Walker will probably be a rebounding Van Exel.... He ll help alleviate the need for a true point when Nash is off the court (Delk could fill in for Nash if
                    Message 9 of 12 , Oct 22, 2003
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                      Walker will probably be a rebounding Van Exel.... He'll help alleviate the
                      need for a true point when Nash is off the court (Delk could fill in for
                      Nash if Walker is in the game - for example). Hopefully he'll shoot less
                      though. If Nellie can convince Antoinne to take less and better shots, and
                      focus more on defense instead, his court awareness and rebounding could
                      help. That may be a BIG if - we'll see....

                      He could be Adrian Griffin for Dallas with definite overall offensive
                      ability and better rebounding. I'm sure that's what Nellie is hoping for.

                      One thing for sure - Dallas will run up and down that court all game every
                      game - should be fun to watch.

                      >From: "roland_beech" <roland@...>
                      >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
                      >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
                      >Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Antoine in Dallas
                      >Date: Tue, 21 Oct 2003 14:22:02 -0000
                      >
                      >personally I think Walker is a good player and the Celtics are
                      >making a mistake in unloading him.
                      >
                      >Last season with Walker on court the Celtics outscored opponents by
                      >+0.8 pts per 48minutes, when he was off court they were -6.3 points
                      >per 48min, so he had a net unadjusted "effect" of +7.1
                      >
                      >this was third best on the team behind Pierce (+10.1) and Battie
                      >(+9.6).
                      >
                      >When Pierce and Walker were on the court together, Boston was +2.1
                      >points per 48, whereas when Pierce was on the court without Walker
                      >the Celtics were -0.6
                      >
                      >While his shot selection is suspect, he opened up the offense for
                      >the team significantly -- with Walker on court Boston had an
                      >effective field goal % (adjusted for 3's) of 47.4%, whereas they
                      >were only 44.2% when he was off the floor. They also committed
                      >three fewer turnovers per 48min with him out there.
                      >
                      >So, I think Boston will be hurting from this and Pierce will
                      >noticeably miss his free-shooting buddy. Of course, the more
                      >interesting question is how Walker will fit in with the Mavs stack
                      >of talent...
                      >
                      >
                      >

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                    • Stephen Greenwell
                      Walker will probably be a rebounding Van Exel.... He ll help alleviate the need for a true point when Nash is off the court (Delk could fill in for Nash if
                      Message 10 of 12 , Oct 22, 2003
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                        Walker will probably be a rebounding Van Exel.... He'll help alleviate the
                        need for a true point when Nash is off the court (Delk could fill in for
                        Nash if Walker is in the game - for example).  Hopefully he'll shoot less
                        though.  If Nellie can convince Antoinne to take less and better shots, and
                        focus more on defense instead, his court awareness and rebounding could
                        help.  That may be a BIG if - we'll see....

                        He could be Adrian Griffin for Dallas with definite overall offensive
                        ability and better rebounding.  I'm sure that's what Nellie is hoping for.

                        One thing for sure - Dallas will run up and down that court all game every
                        game - should be fun to watch.

                        Walker isn't a good rebounder at all though, according to stats like rebound rate.  He only piles them up because he plays so many minutes.  Even still, despite playing PF without a dominant rebounder on the team, and playing 40 minutes a game, he couldn't crack 10/game.  He was ranked 51st in the 01-02 season.  He does play good defense against the eastern conference PFs, but it's hard to imagine him not being dominated by bigger PFs like Brand and Malone in the West.  He was absolutely shutdown by Kenyon Martin of the Nets.
                      • John Hollinger
                        I think Walker s stat line will look radically different, almost as if it was composed by a completely different player. For one, he s going from the second
                        Message 11 of 12 , Oct 22, 2003
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                          I think Walker's stat line will look radically different, almost as
                          if it was composed by a completely different player. For one, he's
                          going from the second option to the fifth option. For another, he's
                          going from a poor offense to one of the best in history. And finally,
                          he's going from a team that consciously shot lots of 3s as part of
                          it's strategy to one that is much more diversified.

                          My guess is that Walker will get his points in transition and on
                          feeds from Nash, do a lot of passing and keep his assist average near
                          what it was, average far fewer shots and points, and shoot a much
                          higher percentage. But I'm very interested to see how this turns out.

                          I still think Ainge made a mistake, however, because Walker is also
                          an above-average defender, and particularly good at fronting guys in
                          the post and making opponents throw over the top.

                          I agree with the comment somebody made on Raef, though. I've always
                          thought he was a PF, not a C, and I'm interested to see how the
                          Celtics use him. I think he could be very effective.
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