Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Shooting percentages

Expand Messages
  • igor eduardo küpfer
    ... Well, 3pt% wouldn t matter too much in the grand scheme of things since they are only a small portion of the shots he takes. FG% doesn t makes any
    Message 1 of 9 , Oct 17, 2003
    • 0 Attachment
      > ----- Original Message -----
      > From: "rose7654" <rose7654@...>
      > To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      > Sent: Friday, October 17, 2003 6:35 PM
      > Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Shooting percentages
      >
      >
      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer
      > <igorkupfer@r...> wrote:
      > >
      > > ----- Original Message -----
      > > From: "rose7654" <rose7654@y...>
      > > To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      > > Sent: Thursday, October 16, 2003 3:58 PM
      > > Subject: [APBR_analysis] Shooting percentages
      > >
      > >
      > > > Hi, just stumbled into this group. Maybe somebody can help:
      > > >
      > > > Is there a formula/ratio for adjusting fg% to account for the
      > number
      > > > of attempts a player takes? For example, a player that shoots 48%
      > > > and averages 16 shots a game, in my opinion, should be valued
      > higher
      > > > as a shooter than a player that shoots 52% but only averages 4
      > shots
      > > > a game.
      > > >
      > > > Anybody have thoughts on how to account for this in ranking
      > players?
      > > > Thanks.
      > > >
      > >
      > > There's a few ways -- none, I think, recognized as the ultimate.
      > Here's one:
      > >
      > > FGpts - misses (ie FGM * 3 + 3FGM - FGA)
      > >
      > > For example, here are the numbers for three players:
      > >
      > > fgm fga 3m pts
      > > a 5 20 2 12 -3
      > > b 50 200 20 120 -30
      > > c 100 200 20 220 0
      > > d 150 200 30 330 100
      > >
      > > ed
      >
      >
      > I'm trying to get my brain around this, but this method seems to give
      > undue weight to the amount of attempts without due regard for the
      > accuracy of the shooter. For example, using this formula, I have
      > Iverson ranked 27 out of 212 players that I have ranked even though
      > he is below league average in 3pt% and fg% and jacks them up at an
      > alarming rate.
      >
      >

      Well, 3pt% wouldn't matter too much in the grand scheme of things since they
      are only a small portion of the shots he takes. FG% doesn't makes any
      distinction between the types of shots taken, which is why I used EffFG%.
      Iverson's Eff is 44%, about 3% lower than the league average. Iverson makes
      a _lot_ of baskets over the course of a season. These are the elements that
      go into the calculations.

      It's up to you to weight the elements in whatever way you feel reflects
      their overall importance. For me, a the fact that AI accounts for about 1/3
      of his team's scoring is more important than the fact that he does so
      shooting 3% lower than the league average. It's not at all clear to me how
      valuable that 3% is, but it's very clear how valuable 30 points is. My model
      reflects the perceived relative importance of these elements implicitly.

      Like I said before, there's no agreed upon method. Weight the elements
      differently if you wish -- play around until you get an answer that looks
      right. Every rating scheme must go through this laugh test.

      ed
    • Dean Oliver
      ... since they ... EffFG%. ... Iverson makes ... elements that ... about 1/3 ... me how ... My model ... looks ... Ed s right here. You can really weight them
      Message 2 of 9 , Oct 18, 2003
      • 0 Attachment
        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer
        > >
        >
        > Well, 3pt% wouldn't matter too much in the grand scheme of things
        since they
        > are only a small portion of the shots he takes. FG% doesn't makes any
        > distinction between the types of shots taken, which is why I used
        EffFG%.
        > Iverson's Eff is 44%, about 3% lower than the league average.
        Iverson makes
        > a _lot_ of baskets over the course of a season. These are the
        elements that
        > go into the calculations.
        >
        > It's up to you to weight the elements in whatever way you feel reflects
        > their overall importance. For me, a the fact that AI accounts for
        about 1/3
        > of his team's scoring is more important than the fact that he does so
        > shooting 3% lower than the league average. It's not at all clear to
        me how
        > valuable that 3% is, but it's very clear how valuable 30 points is.
        My model
        > reflects the perceived relative importance of these elements implicitly.
        >
        > Like I said before, there's no agreed upon method. Weight the elements
        > differently if you wish -- play around until you get an answer that
        looks
        > right. Every rating scheme must go through this laugh test.

        Ed's right here. You can really weight them however you like.
        Because the value of being able to launch a lot of shots depends on
        context. One of the teams I was involved with was horrible. We had a
        guy who shot all the time for a while and it didn't make anyone
        better. But there are definitely cases where one guy who can shoot a
        lot even if not accurate -- like Iverson -- is valuable to his
        teammates. He has been surrounded for a while by guys who are pretty
        decent shooters if they only take the shots they're comfortable with.
        Eric Snow is a huge beneficiary of Iverson. He would be a pretty bad
        player if he had to do what Gary Payton was doing in Seattle (when
        Snow was his backup), shooting a fair amount, dominating possessions.
        Similarly with Iverson, though. If he is shooting 30+% of his team's
        shots at 40% while other guys can handle bigger loads, then that's a
        problem, too. AI distributed nicely in the Olympic quals, which he
        may have to do more with Robinson around, who is ok at getting his
        shot off.

        Anyway, there is no good theory for how to weight accuracy vs ability
        to get shot off. MikeG's statement about what guys would have as ppg
        if they were stuck together was interesting and actually potentially
        testable.

        DeanO
      • rose7654
        ... any ... reflects ... does so ... to ... is. ... implicitly. ... elements ... that ... had a ... a ... pretty ... with. ... bad ... possessions. ... team s
        Message 3 of 9 , Oct 19, 2003
        • 0 Attachment
          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
          wrote:
          > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer
          > > >
          > >
          > > Well, 3pt% wouldn't matter too much in the grand scheme of things
          > since they
          > > are only a small portion of the shots he takes. FG% doesn't makes
          any
          > > distinction between the types of shots taken, which is why I used
          > EffFG%.
          > > Iverson's Eff is 44%, about 3% lower than the league average.
          > Iverson makes
          > > a _lot_ of baskets over the course of a season. These are the
          > elements that
          > > go into the calculations.
          > >
          > > It's up to you to weight the elements in whatever way you feel
          reflects
          > > their overall importance. For me, a the fact that AI accounts for
          > about 1/3
          > > of his team's scoring is more important than the fact that he
          does so
          > > shooting 3% lower than the league average. It's not at all clear
          to
          > me how
          > > valuable that 3% is, but it's very clear how valuable 30 points
          is.
          > My model
          > > reflects the perceived relative importance of these elements
          implicitly.
          > >
          > > Like I said before, there's no agreed upon method. Weight the
          elements
          > > differently if you wish -- play around until you get an answer
          that
          > looks
          > > right. Every rating scheme must go through this laugh test.
          >
          > Ed's right here. You can really weight them however you like.
          > Because the value of being able to launch a lot of shots depends on
          > context. One of the teams I was involved with was horrible. We
          had a
          > guy who shot all the time for a while and it didn't make anyone
          > better. But there are definitely cases where one guy who can shoot
          a
          > lot even if not accurate -- like Iverson -- is valuable to his
          > teammates. He has been surrounded for a while by guys who are
          pretty
          > decent shooters if they only take the shots they're comfortable
          with.
          > Eric Snow is a huge beneficiary of Iverson. He would be a pretty
          bad
          > player if he had to do what Gary Payton was doing in Seattle (when
          > Snow was his backup), shooting a fair amount, dominating
          possessions.
          > Similarly with Iverson, though. If he is shooting 30+% of his
          team's
          > shots at 40% while other guys can handle bigger loads, then that's a
          > problem, too. AI distributed nicely in the Olympic quals, which he
          > may have to do more with Robinson around, who is ok at getting his
          > shot off.
          >
          > Anyway, there is no good theory for how to weight accuracy vs
          ability
          > to get shot off. MikeG's statement about what guys would have as
          ppg
          > if they were stuck together was interesting and actually potentially
          > testable.
          >
          > DeanO

          The only way that I have come up with to rank the accuracy of a
          player's shooting while accounting for attempts--ie creating a way to
          value the 48% shooter on 16 attempts higher than the 52% shooter on 4
          attempts--is as follows:

          1) assign everyone that has considerably less than the league average
          in attempts some standard number, say everyone who shoots less than 6
          times a game gets ranked 110;
          2)everyone that has more than 6 attempts, and higher than the league
          average in fg% gets ranked 1-110.
          3)everyone that has more than 6 attempts, and lower than the league
          average in fg% gets ranked 110-220.
          4)then adjust for attempts as follows:
          a) higher than league avg in fg% and between 10-14 attempts per
          game, subtract 10 from ranking
          b) higher than league avg in fg% and between 14-18 attempts per
          game, subtract 20 from ranking
          c) higher than league avg in fg% and between 18-24 attempts per
          game, subtract 30 from ranking
          d) lower than league avg in fg% and between 10-14 attempts per game,
          add 10 to ranking
          e) lower than league avg in fg% and between 14-18 attempts per game,
          add 20 to ranking
          f) lower than league avg in fg% and between 18-24 attempts per game,
          add 30 to ranking


          Just for kicks: using this system yields a list like this for fg%
          (interesting to note Antoine Walker last on this list and some of the
          other "superstars" near the bottom):

          ShaquilleO'Neal
          Kevin Garnett
          Tim Duncan
          Eddy Curry
          Matt Harpring
          Pau Gasol
          Carlos Boozer
          P.J. Brown
          Elton Brand
          RadoslavNesterovic
          Nene Hilario
          Richard Jefferson
          Raef LaFrentz
          Jermaine O'Neal
          Brian Grant
          Calbert Cheaney
          Jerome Williams
          Yao Ming
          Kurt Thomas
          Brad Miller
          Keith VanHorn
          Antawn Jamison
          Grant Hill
          Peja Stojakovic
          Wally Szczerbiak
          Andrei Kirilenko
          Shareef Abdur-Rahim
          Vince Carter
          Dirk Nowitzki
          John Stockton
          Rasheed Wallace
          Shane Battier
          Chris Webber
          Sam Cassell
          Kenyon Martin
          Stromile Swift
          Mike Bibby
          Michael Redd
          Jamaal Magloire
          Tracy McGrady
          Doug Christie
          Larry Hughes
          Amare Stoudemire
          Karl Malone
          Kerry Kittles
          Gary Payton
          Eric Piatkowski
          Steve Nash
          Shawn Marion
          Bobby Jackson
          Kobe Bryant
          Tony Parker
          Vlade Divac
          Donyell Marshall
          Marcus Fizer
          Kenny Thomas
          Theo Ratliff
          Drew Gooden
          Juwan Howard
          Rashard Lewis
          Malik Rose
          Brent Barry
          Wesley Person
          Allan Houston
          LorenzenWright
          Desmond Mason
          Corliss Williamson
          Eric Snow
          Troy Murphy
          Corey Maggette
          Derrick Coleman
          AnferneeHardaway
          Donnell Harvey
          Scottie Pippen
          Tim Thomas
          Richard Hamilton
          Eric Williams
          Jim Jackson
          Reggie Miller
          Ben Wallace
          ChristianLaettner
          Robert Horry
          David Robinson
          ClarenceWeatherspoon
          Dale Davis
          Tony Battie
          Erick Dampier
          Stephen Jackson
          Tyson Chandler
          Keon Clark
          Devean George
          Anthony Mason
          Joe Smith
          VladimirStepania
          Bruce Bowen
          Charlie Ward
          Shawn Kemp
          Dikembe Mutombo
          Kwame Brown
          Ira Newble
          Walter McCarty
          Othella Harrington
          Rodney Rogers
          Mehmet Okur
          Ruben Patterson
          Jelani McCoy
          Chris Mihm
          Zachary Randolph
          Emanuel Ginobili
          Aaron Williams
          Marko Jaric
          Elden Campbell
          Kenny Anderson
          Jon Barry
          Earl Boykins
          Jonathan Bender
          Kevin Ollie
          Shandon Anderson
          Rod Strickland
          Bob Sura
          Hedo Turkoglu
          Mike Dunleavy
          Jacque Vaughn
          Erick Strickland
          Steve Smith
          Chris Whitney
          Keyon Dooling
          Jeff McInnis
          Derek Fisher
          Zydrunas Ilgauskas
          David Wells
          Jumaine Jones
          Lamar Odom
          Alvin Williams
          Tyronn Lue
          Gordan Giricek
          Maurice Taylor
          Toni Kukoc
          Mike Miller
          Al Harrington
          Ray Allen
          Cuttino Mobley
          Glen Rice
          Aaron McKie
          David Wesley
          Dion Glover
          Steve Francis
          Stephon Marbury
          Malik Allen
          Jason Terry
          Kendall Gill
          Ron Artest
          Troy Hudson
          Rick Fox
          Gilbert Arenas
          Michael Olowokandi
          Nick VanExel
          Derek Anderson
          Pat Garrity
          Howard Eisley
          Tony Delk
          Eddie Jones
          Glenn Robinson
          Rafer Alston
          Anthony Peeler
          Chauncey Billups
          Michael Finley
          Lucious Harris
          Jamal Crawford
          Caron Butler
          Predrag Drobnjak
          James Posey
          Darius Miles
          Vladimir Radmanovic
          Marcus Camby
          Darrell Armstrong
          Ron Mercer
          Rodney White
          Baron Davis
          Jamal Mashburn
          Jason Kidd
          Jason Richardson
          Paul Pierce
          Eddie Griffin
          Antonio Davis
          Andre Miller
          Jay Williams
          Joe Johnson
          Allen Iverson
          Jamaal Tinsley
          Travis Best
          Voshon Lenard
          ShammondWilliams
          Jerry Stackhouse
          Vincent Yarbrough
          Clifford Robinson
          Ricky Davis
          Latrell Sprewell
          Eddie House
          CourtneyAlexander
          Damon Stoudamire
          Morris Peterson
          Mike James
          Quentin Richardson
          Jalen Rose
          J.R. Bremer
          Jason Williams
          Rasual Butler
          Chucky Atkins
          Dajuan Wagner
          Lindsey Hunter
          Antoine Walker
        Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.