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Re: Shooting percentages

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  • rose7654
    ... number ... higher ... shots ... players? ... I m trying to get my brain around this, but this method seems to give undue weight to the amount of attempts
    Message 1 of 9 , Oct 17, 2003
      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer
      <igorkupfer@r...> wrote:
      >
      > ----- Original Message -----
      > From: "rose7654" <rose7654@y...>
      > To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      > Sent: Thursday, October 16, 2003 3:58 PM
      > Subject: [APBR_analysis] Shooting percentages
      >
      >
      > > Hi, just stumbled into this group. Maybe somebody can help:
      > >
      > > Is there a formula/ratio for adjusting fg% to account for the
      number
      > > of attempts a player takes? For example, a player that shoots 48%
      > > and averages 16 shots a game, in my opinion, should be valued
      higher
      > > as a shooter than a player that shoots 52% but only averages 4
      shots
      > > a game.
      > >
      > > Anybody have thoughts on how to account for this in ranking
      players?
      > > Thanks.
      > >
      >
      > There's a few ways -- none, I think, recognized as the ultimate.
      Here's one:
      >
      > FGpts - misses (ie FGM * 3 + 3FGM - FGA)
      >
      > For example, here are the numbers for three players:
      >
      > fgm fga 3m pts
      > a 5 20 2 12 -3
      > b 50 200 20 120 -30
      > c 100 200 20 220 0
      > d 150 200 30 330 100
      >
      > ed


      I'm trying to get my brain around this, but this method seems to give
      undue weight to the amount of attempts without due regard for the
      accuracy of the shooter. For example, using this formula, I have
      Iverson ranked 27 out of 212 players that I have ranked even though
      he is below league average in 3pt% and fg% and jacks them up at an
      alarming rate.
    • igor eduardo küpfer
      ... Well, 3pt% wouldn t matter too much in the grand scheme of things since they are only a small portion of the shots he takes. FG% doesn t makes any
      Message 2 of 9 , Oct 17, 2003
        > ----- Original Message -----
        > From: "rose7654" <rose7654@...>
        > To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
        > Sent: Friday, October 17, 2003 6:35 PM
        > Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Shooting percentages
        >
        >
        > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer
        > <igorkupfer@r...> wrote:
        > >
        > > ----- Original Message -----
        > > From: "rose7654" <rose7654@y...>
        > > To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
        > > Sent: Thursday, October 16, 2003 3:58 PM
        > > Subject: [APBR_analysis] Shooting percentages
        > >
        > >
        > > > Hi, just stumbled into this group. Maybe somebody can help:
        > > >
        > > > Is there a formula/ratio for adjusting fg% to account for the
        > number
        > > > of attempts a player takes? For example, a player that shoots 48%
        > > > and averages 16 shots a game, in my opinion, should be valued
        > higher
        > > > as a shooter than a player that shoots 52% but only averages 4
        > shots
        > > > a game.
        > > >
        > > > Anybody have thoughts on how to account for this in ranking
        > players?
        > > > Thanks.
        > > >
        > >
        > > There's a few ways -- none, I think, recognized as the ultimate.
        > Here's one:
        > >
        > > FGpts - misses (ie FGM * 3 + 3FGM - FGA)
        > >
        > > For example, here are the numbers for three players:
        > >
        > > fgm fga 3m pts
        > > a 5 20 2 12 -3
        > > b 50 200 20 120 -30
        > > c 100 200 20 220 0
        > > d 150 200 30 330 100
        > >
        > > ed
        >
        >
        > I'm trying to get my brain around this, but this method seems to give
        > undue weight to the amount of attempts without due regard for the
        > accuracy of the shooter. For example, using this formula, I have
        > Iverson ranked 27 out of 212 players that I have ranked even though
        > he is below league average in 3pt% and fg% and jacks them up at an
        > alarming rate.
        >
        >

        Well, 3pt% wouldn't matter too much in the grand scheme of things since they
        are only a small portion of the shots he takes. FG% doesn't makes any
        distinction between the types of shots taken, which is why I used EffFG%.
        Iverson's Eff is 44%, about 3% lower than the league average. Iverson makes
        a _lot_ of baskets over the course of a season. These are the elements that
        go into the calculations.

        It's up to you to weight the elements in whatever way you feel reflects
        their overall importance. For me, a the fact that AI accounts for about 1/3
        of his team's scoring is more important than the fact that he does so
        shooting 3% lower than the league average. It's not at all clear to me how
        valuable that 3% is, but it's very clear how valuable 30 points is. My model
        reflects the perceived relative importance of these elements implicitly.

        Like I said before, there's no agreed upon method. Weight the elements
        differently if you wish -- play around until you get an answer that looks
        right. Every rating scheme must go through this laugh test.

        ed
      • Dean Oliver
        ... since they ... EffFG%. ... Iverson makes ... elements that ... about 1/3 ... me how ... My model ... looks ... Ed s right here. You can really weight them
        Message 3 of 9 , Oct 18, 2003
          --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer
          > >
          >
          > Well, 3pt% wouldn't matter too much in the grand scheme of things
          since they
          > are only a small portion of the shots he takes. FG% doesn't makes any
          > distinction between the types of shots taken, which is why I used
          EffFG%.
          > Iverson's Eff is 44%, about 3% lower than the league average.
          Iverson makes
          > a _lot_ of baskets over the course of a season. These are the
          elements that
          > go into the calculations.
          >
          > It's up to you to weight the elements in whatever way you feel reflects
          > their overall importance. For me, a the fact that AI accounts for
          about 1/3
          > of his team's scoring is more important than the fact that he does so
          > shooting 3% lower than the league average. It's not at all clear to
          me how
          > valuable that 3% is, but it's very clear how valuable 30 points is.
          My model
          > reflects the perceived relative importance of these elements implicitly.
          >
          > Like I said before, there's no agreed upon method. Weight the elements
          > differently if you wish -- play around until you get an answer that
          looks
          > right. Every rating scheme must go through this laugh test.

          Ed's right here. You can really weight them however you like.
          Because the value of being able to launch a lot of shots depends on
          context. One of the teams I was involved with was horrible. We had a
          guy who shot all the time for a while and it didn't make anyone
          better. But there are definitely cases where one guy who can shoot a
          lot even if not accurate -- like Iverson -- is valuable to his
          teammates. He has been surrounded for a while by guys who are pretty
          decent shooters if they only take the shots they're comfortable with.
          Eric Snow is a huge beneficiary of Iverson. He would be a pretty bad
          player if he had to do what Gary Payton was doing in Seattle (when
          Snow was his backup), shooting a fair amount, dominating possessions.
          Similarly with Iverson, though. If he is shooting 30+% of his team's
          shots at 40% while other guys can handle bigger loads, then that's a
          problem, too. AI distributed nicely in the Olympic quals, which he
          may have to do more with Robinson around, who is ok at getting his
          shot off.

          Anyway, there is no good theory for how to weight accuracy vs ability
          to get shot off. MikeG's statement about what guys would have as ppg
          if they were stuck together was interesting and actually potentially
          testable.

          DeanO
        • rose7654
          ... any ... reflects ... does so ... to ... is. ... implicitly. ... elements ... that ... had a ... a ... pretty ... with. ... bad ... possessions. ... team s
          Message 4 of 9 , Oct 19, 2003
            --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
            wrote:
            > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer
            > > >
            > >
            > > Well, 3pt% wouldn't matter too much in the grand scheme of things
            > since they
            > > are only a small portion of the shots he takes. FG% doesn't makes
            any
            > > distinction between the types of shots taken, which is why I used
            > EffFG%.
            > > Iverson's Eff is 44%, about 3% lower than the league average.
            > Iverson makes
            > > a _lot_ of baskets over the course of a season. These are the
            > elements that
            > > go into the calculations.
            > >
            > > It's up to you to weight the elements in whatever way you feel
            reflects
            > > their overall importance. For me, a the fact that AI accounts for
            > about 1/3
            > > of his team's scoring is more important than the fact that he
            does so
            > > shooting 3% lower than the league average. It's not at all clear
            to
            > me how
            > > valuable that 3% is, but it's very clear how valuable 30 points
            is.
            > My model
            > > reflects the perceived relative importance of these elements
            implicitly.
            > >
            > > Like I said before, there's no agreed upon method. Weight the
            elements
            > > differently if you wish -- play around until you get an answer
            that
            > looks
            > > right. Every rating scheme must go through this laugh test.
            >
            > Ed's right here. You can really weight them however you like.
            > Because the value of being able to launch a lot of shots depends on
            > context. One of the teams I was involved with was horrible. We
            had a
            > guy who shot all the time for a while and it didn't make anyone
            > better. But there are definitely cases where one guy who can shoot
            a
            > lot even if not accurate -- like Iverson -- is valuable to his
            > teammates. He has been surrounded for a while by guys who are
            pretty
            > decent shooters if they only take the shots they're comfortable
            with.
            > Eric Snow is a huge beneficiary of Iverson. He would be a pretty
            bad
            > player if he had to do what Gary Payton was doing in Seattle (when
            > Snow was his backup), shooting a fair amount, dominating
            possessions.
            > Similarly with Iverson, though. If he is shooting 30+% of his
            team's
            > shots at 40% while other guys can handle bigger loads, then that's a
            > problem, too. AI distributed nicely in the Olympic quals, which he
            > may have to do more with Robinson around, who is ok at getting his
            > shot off.
            >
            > Anyway, there is no good theory for how to weight accuracy vs
            ability
            > to get shot off. MikeG's statement about what guys would have as
            ppg
            > if they were stuck together was interesting and actually potentially
            > testable.
            >
            > DeanO

            The only way that I have come up with to rank the accuracy of a
            player's shooting while accounting for attempts--ie creating a way to
            value the 48% shooter on 16 attempts higher than the 52% shooter on 4
            attempts--is as follows:

            1) assign everyone that has considerably less than the league average
            in attempts some standard number, say everyone who shoots less than 6
            times a game gets ranked 110;
            2)everyone that has more than 6 attempts, and higher than the league
            average in fg% gets ranked 1-110.
            3)everyone that has more than 6 attempts, and lower than the league
            average in fg% gets ranked 110-220.
            4)then adjust for attempts as follows:
            a) higher than league avg in fg% and between 10-14 attempts per
            game, subtract 10 from ranking
            b) higher than league avg in fg% and between 14-18 attempts per
            game, subtract 20 from ranking
            c) higher than league avg in fg% and between 18-24 attempts per
            game, subtract 30 from ranking
            d) lower than league avg in fg% and between 10-14 attempts per game,
            add 10 to ranking
            e) lower than league avg in fg% and between 14-18 attempts per game,
            add 20 to ranking
            f) lower than league avg in fg% and between 18-24 attempts per game,
            add 30 to ranking


            Just for kicks: using this system yields a list like this for fg%
            (interesting to note Antoine Walker last on this list and some of the
            other "superstars" near the bottom):

            ShaquilleO'Neal
            Kevin Garnett
            Tim Duncan
            Eddy Curry
            Matt Harpring
            Pau Gasol
            Carlos Boozer
            P.J. Brown
            Elton Brand
            RadoslavNesterovic
            Nene Hilario
            Richard Jefferson
            Raef LaFrentz
            Jermaine O'Neal
            Brian Grant
            Calbert Cheaney
            Jerome Williams
            Yao Ming
            Kurt Thomas
            Brad Miller
            Keith VanHorn
            Antawn Jamison
            Grant Hill
            Peja Stojakovic
            Wally Szczerbiak
            Andrei Kirilenko
            Shareef Abdur-Rahim
            Vince Carter
            Dirk Nowitzki
            John Stockton
            Rasheed Wallace
            Shane Battier
            Chris Webber
            Sam Cassell
            Kenyon Martin
            Stromile Swift
            Mike Bibby
            Michael Redd
            Jamaal Magloire
            Tracy McGrady
            Doug Christie
            Larry Hughes
            Amare Stoudemire
            Karl Malone
            Kerry Kittles
            Gary Payton
            Eric Piatkowski
            Steve Nash
            Shawn Marion
            Bobby Jackson
            Kobe Bryant
            Tony Parker
            Vlade Divac
            Donyell Marshall
            Marcus Fizer
            Kenny Thomas
            Theo Ratliff
            Drew Gooden
            Juwan Howard
            Rashard Lewis
            Malik Rose
            Brent Barry
            Wesley Person
            Allan Houston
            LorenzenWright
            Desmond Mason
            Corliss Williamson
            Eric Snow
            Troy Murphy
            Corey Maggette
            Derrick Coleman
            AnferneeHardaway
            Donnell Harvey
            Scottie Pippen
            Tim Thomas
            Richard Hamilton
            Eric Williams
            Jim Jackson
            Reggie Miller
            Ben Wallace
            ChristianLaettner
            Robert Horry
            David Robinson
            ClarenceWeatherspoon
            Dale Davis
            Tony Battie
            Erick Dampier
            Stephen Jackson
            Tyson Chandler
            Keon Clark
            Devean George
            Anthony Mason
            Joe Smith
            VladimirStepania
            Bruce Bowen
            Charlie Ward
            Shawn Kemp
            Dikembe Mutombo
            Kwame Brown
            Ira Newble
            Walter McCarty
            Othella Harrington
            Rodney Rogers
            Mehmet Okur
            Ruben Patterson
            Jelani McCoy
            Chris Mihm
            Zachary Randolph
            Emanuel Ginobili
            Aaron Williams
            Marko Jaric
            Elden Campbell
            Kenny Anderson
            Jon Barry
            Earl Boykins
            Jonathan Bender
            Kevin Ollie
            Shandon Anderson
            Rod Strickland
            Bob Sura
            Hedo Turkoglu
            Mike Dunleavy
            Jacque Vaughn
            Erick Strickland
            Steve Smith
            Chris Whitney
            Keyon Dooling
            Jeff McInnis
            Derek Fisher
            Zydrunas Ilgauskas
            David Wells
            Jumaine Jones
            Lamar Odom
            Alvin Williams
            Tyronn Lue
            Gordan Giricek
            Maurice Taylor
            Toni Kukoc
            Mike Miller
            Al Harrington
            Ray Allen
            Cuttino Mobley
            Glen Rice
            Aaron McKie
            David Wesley
            Dion Glover
            Steve Francis
            Stephon Marbury
            Malik Allen
            Jason Terry
            Kendall Gill
            Ron Artest
            Troy Hudson
            Rick Fox
            Gilbert Arenas
            Michael Olowokandi
            Nick VanExel
            Derek Anderson
            Pat Garrity
            Howard Eisley
            Tony Delk
            Eddie Jones
            Glenn Robinson
            Rafer Alston
            Anthony Peeler
            Chauncey Billups
            Michael Finley
            Lucious Harris
            Jamal Crawford
            Caron Butler
            Predrag Drobnjak
            James Posey
            Darius Miles
            Vladimir Radmanovic
            Marcus Camby
            Darrell Armstrong
            Ron Mercer
            Rodney White
            Baron Davis
            Jamal Mashburn
            Jason Kidd
            Jason Richardson
            Paul Pierce
            Eddie Griffin
            Antonio Davis
            Andre Miller
            Jay Williams
            Joe Johnson
            Allen Iverson
            Jamaal Tinsley
            Travis Best
            Voshon Lenard
            ShammondWilliams
            Jerry Stackhouse
            Vincent Yarbrough
            Clifford Robinson
            Ricky Davis
            Latrell Sprewell
            Eddie House
            CourtneyAlexander
            Damon Stoudamire
            Morris Peterson
            Mike James
            Quentin Richardson
            Jalen Rose
            J.R. Bremer
            Jason Williams
            Rasual Butler
            Chucky Atkins
            Dajuan Wagner
            Lindsey Hunter
            Antoine Walker
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