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Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: NBA Stats site

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  • igor eduardo küpfer
    After going through your site some more, I must say how impressed I am. A couple of further comments. ... From: roland_beech
    Message 1 of 5 , Oct 9, 2003
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      After going through your site some more, I must say how impressed I am. A
      couple of further comments.

      ----- Original Message -----
      From: "roland_beech" <roland@...>
      To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Thursday, October 09, 2003 8:27 PM
      Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: NBA Stats site


      <snip>
      > The plus/minus stuff is just one facet of what we are doing. I like
      > the +/- in conjunction with player W-L numbers (each game is scored
      > as a win or loss on the player's plus minus data), which helps show
      > consistency of performance.
      >

      Perhaps the Pythag would be informative here. Using Tim Duncan as an
      example:

      OffPts DefPts Min Win% W-L
      OnCourt 97.0 88.9 3151 75.6% 50-16
      OffCourt 91.7 97.9 775 29.9% 5-11

      50-16 is a number people can easily understand, while points scored and
      allowed appeals only to us statheads :-)

      BTW DeanO: how do your individual win numbers match up to these?

      BTW2: Roland, nba.com shows Duncan as playing 3181 minutes. Typo, or is
      there a rounding error? Not that a 1% error is a big deal.

      >
      > The 5-man units are often undermined by limited data (a unit that
      > plays 2% of the total minutes for a team may only be playing 78
      > minutes total together), but we can also break out the numbers by
      > two-man pairs, etc to understand which players play well together.
      >

      The 5-man units provide enough information for now -- I could spend hours
      looking at them! I would suggest showing the floor time as absolute minutes,
      as well as the percentage of total team minutes.

      > As far as Ed's comment on clutch shooting stats are concerned, we
      > certainly could publish the actual numbers instead of the per 48
      > minute basis summaries. I don't like the format on several of the
      > pages that much, but trying to get 2,500 pages of content (5 per
      > player, 6 per team, with articles) published in a timely fashion
      > called for some compromises in the short term.
      >

      I'll bet. It's obvious how much work that must have gone into the project.

      > It's likely the layout will change on certain fronts for the coming
      > 03-04 season.
      >

      I have a few other suggestions. I'll send them off list.

      ed
    • Dean Oliver
      ... In http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/iwldef.html I post 3 versions of individual win-loss records. The version that Roland posts -- how many games that
      Message 2 of 5 , Oct 10, 2003
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        --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer
        >
        > Perhaps the Pythag would be informative here. Using Tim Duncan as an
        > example:
        >
        > OffPts DefPts Min Win% W-L
        > OnCourt 97.0 88.9 3151 75.6% 50-16
        > OffCourt 91.7 97.9 775 29.9% 5-11
        >
        > 50-16 is a number people can easily understand, while points scored and
        > allowed appeals only to us statheads :-)
        >
        > BTW DeanO: how do your individual win numbers match up to these?
        >

        In

        http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/iwldef.html

        I post 3 versions of individual win-loss records. The version that
        Roland posts -- how many games that person's team outscores the
        opponent when the player is on the court -- is most like the first
        listed there, I believe because players on good teams generally look
        pretty good. Roland's is better than what my first one does. Method
        2 shown on my page is one of my favorite tools because it indicates
        how well players do their roles. For some players, I think it is
        similar to Roland's, especially the better players (Duncan 58-23 by
        Roland and 62-19 by me). Method 3 of mine is applying Pythagorean
        methods to individual offensive and defensive ratings, which is more
        answering the question you raise. It looks, however, to estimate how
        many games a player contributes to, so how many wins can they add.
        Duncan comes out at 15.9-1.0 (.941), so it's not comparable in
        magnitude.

        I think it's key to note that all these interpretations of an
        individual's win-loss record are fair. The one Ed coins is
        interesting. The one that Roland has should be similar to Ed's
        (theoretically, they should be very comparable), but I haven't checked.

        >
        > I have a few other suggestions. I'll send them off list.

        That data set could lead to a flood of ideas on what to do with it.
        How many years of pbp's do you have?

        DeanO
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