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Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: NBA stats site

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  • igor eduardo küpfer
    ... From: Dean Oliver To: Sent: Thursday, October 09, 2003 5:41 PM Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: NBA stats
    Message 1 of 9 , Oct 9, 2003
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      ----- Original Message -----
      From: "Dean Oliver" <deano@...>
      To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Thursday, October 09, 2003 5:41 PM
      Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: NBA stats site


      >
      > Play-by-play data is going to spawn an entirely new wave of
      > analysis. This is that wave.
      >

      Indeed. I'm already itching to try a player rating based on changing game
      states, like baseball's Player Game Percentage.

      Speaking of play by play, I wish I could see the attempts for the clutch
      shooters. My quick study on Tim Duncan showed that he only had about 300
      attempts in "clutch time" defined by Roland's page, not enough for
      statistical significance.

      ed
    • m_c_meyer
      All I can say is, WOW!!!! ....can t wait to start delving into all this information!
      Message 2 of 9 , Oct 10, 2003
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        All I can say is, WOW!!!!

        ....can't wait to start delving into all this information!
      • roland_beech
        ... The shooting percentages definitely change as the shot clock winds down, as does the type of shot a team is likely to take. We re doing some research on
        Message 3 of 9 , Oct 10, 2003
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          >One other thing I like about this is that it seems to support my
          >long-standing but poorly supported statement about shooting with 3
          >or fewer seconds on the clock being much poorer. I can't check it
          >for sure with their posted numbers, but they can. Hint, hint.

          The shooting percentages definitely change as the shot clock winds
          down, as does the type of shot a team is likely to take. We're
          doing some research on this to see if the better teams are primarily
          better at executing in the later seconds on the clock, get to that
          situation less often, or if everyone struggles with time running out
          and it's a matter of the good teams being stronger in the earlier
          shot clock segments...likewise the defensive numbers are interesting
          here

          >Perhaps the Pythag would be informative here. Using Tim Duncan as an
          >example:
          >OffPts DefPts Min Win% W-L
          >OnCourt 97.0 88.9 3151 75.6% 50-16
          >OffCourt 91.7 97.9 775 29.9% 5-11
          >50-16 is a number people can easily understand, while points scored
          >and allowed appeals only to us statheads :-)

          agree completely that the 50-16 vs 5-11 is a nicer look than the
          others we show...of course it's a projected stat versus an actual
          one, but we can certainly look to add this for future page updates

          >BTW2: Roland, nba.com shows Duncan as playing 3181 minutes. Typo,
          >or is there a rounding error? Not that a 1% error is a big deal.

          We calculate playing time to the second and accumulate as opposed to
          the NBA which I believe rounds to the nearest minute on a game
          basis. So, that explains part of it. I'm sure we will differ from
          official stats in certain places

          >The 5-man units provide enough information for now -- I could spend
          >hours looking at them! I would suggest showing the floor time as
          >absolute minutes, as well as the percentage of total team minutes.

          A good point too, and particularly in-season you might have in the
          first month a unit with something like 2% of total minutes
          translating into 5 actual minutes together...not a big sample!

          >That data set could lead to a flood of ideas on what to do with it.

          We have an ever-expanding list of research ideas to pursue,
          including such obscure things as: performance of players in
          different foul states (eg playing with 5 fouls), does getting a shot
          blocked change a player's subsequent shot selection, rookie play pre
          and post-wall, where does home court advantage actually come from,
          and in particular detailed analysis of five-man unit traits, how
          these characteristics match up against opponent five-man units, etc
          etc
        • schtevie2003
          Very interesting data on 82games.com. A couple of questions: 1) What is the source of the raw data from which the +/- summaries were generated? 2) Apparently
          Message 4 of 9 , Oct 10, 2003
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            Very interesting data on 82games.com. A couple of questions:

            1) What is the source of the raw data from which the +/-
            summaries were generated?

            2) Apparently I am misunderstanding the +/- definition in the
            tables. By my way of thinking when you take the +/- for a given
            player when ON the court and multiply it by his fraction of playing
            time and then add the +/- for the same player when OFF the court
            and muliply it by his fraction of non-playing time, what you should
            get is the team plus minus, no? In doing a loose check on Paul
            Pierce, I find the implication that the '03-'03 Celtics were
            outscored (which may be the case) but also that the team
            implied figure based on Mr. Battie's +/- differed, which cannot be,
            according to my conception of the stat. Please advise.

            Thanks,

            Steve
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