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Re: NBA stats site

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... without ... system?.... Yes, very nice work. The system looks pretty simple actually, not trying to do what WINVAL does (and does not quite right).
    Message 1 of 9 , Oct 9, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, bchaikin@a... wrote:
      >
      > nice work..... can you show your source for the data you have used
      without
      > divulging any proprietary work?...
      >
      > how is this sytem any different than the winston/sagarin WINVAL
      system?....

      Yes, very nice work. The system looks pretty simple actually, not
      trying to do what WINVAL does (and does not quite right). Basically,
      he's got what lineups are on the floor all the time and adds things
      up. Very good pieces of data. And it is data even though
      the "Roland Ratings" implies something more, it is mainly data, which
      is GOOD. The fact that Greg Ostertag ends up looking good doesn't
      mean that the system is wrong. It means that Utah played a lot
      better when he was on the floor. Other guys may have been on the
      floor at the same time, causing some confounding problems, but it's
      just data, not a ThisGuyIsTheGreatest thing. Ostertag is not the
      best or even 2nd best center, as we'll see this year, but he
      complemented Stockton and Malone fairly well apparently (and his
      backup did not). In fact, these ratings do reflect a lot on who was
      backing someone up. Kidd had no decent PG backup in NJ, so he looks
      extra special. If his backup was Bobby Jackson, it would lower his
      rating.

      Play-by-play data is going to spawn an entirely new wave of
      analysis. This is that wave.

      DeanO
    • igor eduardo küpfer
      ... From: Dean Oliver To: Sent: Thursday, October 09, 2003 5:41 PM Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: NBA stats
      Message 2 of 9 , Oct 9, 2003
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        ----- Original Message -----
        From: "Dean Oliver" <deano@...>
        To: <APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com>
        Sent: Thursday, October 09, 2003 5:41 PM
        Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: NBA stats site


        >
        > Play-by-play data is going to spawn an entirely new wave of
        > analysis. This is that wave.
        >

        Indeed. I'm already itching to try a player rating based on changing game
        states, like baseball's Player Game Percentage.

        Speaking of play by play, I wish I could see the attempts for the clutch
        shooters. My quick study on Tim Duncan showed that he only had about 300
        attempts in "clutch time" defined by Roland's page, not enough for
        statistical significance.

        ed
      • m_c_meyer
        All I can say is, WOW!!!! ....can t wait to start delving into all this information!
        Message 3 of 9 , Oct 10, 2003
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          All I can say is, WOW!!!!

          ....can't wait to start delving into all this information!
        • roland_beech
          ... The shooting percentages definitely change as the shot clock winds down, as does the type of shot a team is likely to take. We re doing some research on
          Message 4 of 9 , Oct 10, 2003
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            >One other thing I like about this is that it seems to support my
            >long-standing but poorly supported statement about shooting with 3
            >or fewer seconds on the clock being much poorer. I can't check it
            >for sure with their posted numbers, but they can. Hint, hint.

            The shooting percentages definitely change as the shot clock winds
            down, as does the type of shot a team is likely to take. We're
            doing some research on this to see if the better teams are primarily
            better at executing in the later seconds on the clock, get to that
            situation less often, or if everyone struggles with time running out
            and it's a matter of the good teams being stronger in the earlier
            shot clock segments...likewise the defensive numbers are interesting
            here

            >Perhaps the Pythag would be informative here. Using Tim Duncan as an
            >example:
            >OffPts DefPts Min Win% W-L
            >OnCourt 97.0 88.9 3151 75.6% 50-16
            >OffCourt 91.7 97.9 775 29.9% 5-11
            >50-16 is a number people can easily understand, while points scored
            >and allowed appeals only to us statheads :-)

            agree completely that the 50-16 vs 5-11 is a nicer look than the
            others we show...of course it's a projected stat versus an actual
            one, but we can certainly look to add this for future page updates

            >BTW2: Roland, nba.com shows Duncan as playing 3181 minutes. Typo,
            >or is there a rounding error? Not that a 1% error is a big deal.

            We calculate playing time to the second and accumulate as opposed to
            the NBA which I believe rounds to the nearest minute on a game
            basis. So, that explains part of it. I'm sure we will differ from
            official stats in certain places

            >The 5-man units provide enough information for now -- I could spend
            >hours looking at them! I would suggest showing the floor time as
            >absolute minutes, as well as the percentage of total team minutes.

            A good point too, and particularly in-season you might have in the
            first month a unit with something like 2% of total minutes
            translating into 5 actual minutes together...not a big sample!

            >That data set could lead to a flood of ideas on what to do with it.

            We have an ever-expanding list of research ideas to pursue,
            including such obscure things as: performance of players in
            different foul states (eg playing with 5 fouls), does getting a shot
            blocked change a player's subsequent shot selection, rookie play pre
            and post-wall, where does home court advantage actually come from,
            and in particular detailed analysis of five-man unit traits, how
            these characteristics match up against opponent five-man units, etc
            etc
          • schtevie2003
            Very interesting data on 82games.com. A couple of questions: 1) What is the source of the raw data from which the +/- summaries were generated? 2) Apparently
            Message 5 of 9 , Oct 10, 2003
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              Very interesting data on 82games.com. A couple of questions:

              1) What is the source of the raw data from which the +/-
              summaries were generated?

              2) Apparently I am misunderstanding the +/- definition in the
              tables. By my way of thinking when you take the +/- for a given
              player when ON the court and multiply it by his fraction of playing
              time and then add the +/- for the same player when OFF the court
              and muliply it by his fraction of non-playing time, what you should
              get is the team plus minus, no? In doing a loose check on Paul
              Pierce, I find the implication that the '03-'03 Celtics were
              outscored (which may be the case) but also that the team
              implied figure based on Mr. Battie's +/- differed, which cannot be,
              according to my conception of the stat. Please advise.

              Thanks,

              Steve
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