Re: Oscar's Effect -- getting technical
- --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
> The 2% difference is interesting, but I wonder how much of it wasother
> because of the fact that Oscar was taking all the shots. So the
> guys were taking fewer shots, but because they had to create fewerof
> for themselves, they ended up shooting a higher percentage. Kind
> like what will happen to Gary Payton and Karl Malone this year. Ifstill
> that's the case, you should see the same effect with a lot of high-
> scoring players.
> Let's call this the "Ainge Effect" (side note: this theory is
> in beta, which is one reason I'm testing it out on this audience).Boston
> Danny Ainge averaged 15.7 points a game for title-contending
> while shooting 49 percent. He gets traded to crappy Sacramento andresult,
> suddenly he has to creat a lot more shots for himself. As a
> his average goes up to 17.5 and 17.9, but his percentage drops tobe a
> 45.7 and 43.8. Then he goes to title-contending Portland and can
> complementary player again; his average drops back down to 11.0,but
> he shoots 47.2 percent.There is no doubt this happens. Those charts that I put out a year
or more ago -- those were designed to look exactly at this in a
theoretical way because I had seen it so often empirically. Iverson
improves his teammates pretty significantly even though he isn't
efficient, just because he's using 30+% of his team's possessions.
So, with the Lakers, if Phil can get them all cutting down their
possession use to 23-27% (rather than 27-32%), they should be a