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Re: Oscar's Effect -- getting technical

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... other ... of ... still ... Boston ... result, ... be a ... but ... There is no doubt this happens. Those charts that I put out a year or more ago -- those
    Message 1 of 5 , Oct 5, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "John Hollinger"
      <alleyoop2@y...> wrote:
      > The 2% difference is interesting, but I wonder how much of it was
      > because of the fact that Oscar was taking all the shots. So the
      other
      > guys were taking fewer shots, but because they had to create fewer
      > for themselves, they ended up shooting a higher percentage. Kind
      of
      > like what will happen to Gary Payton and Karl Malone this year. If
      > that's the case, you should see the same effect with a lot of high-
      > scoring players.
      >
      > Let's call this the "Ainge Effect" (side note: this theory is
      still
      > in beta, which is one reason I'm testing it out on this audience).
      > Danny Ainge averaged 15.7 points a game for title-contending
      Boston
      > while shooting 49 percent. He gets traded to crappy Sacramento and
      > suddenly he has to creat a lot more shots for himself. As a
      result,
      > his average goes up to 17.5 and 17.9, but his percentage drops to
      > 45.7 and 43.8. Then he goes to title-contending Portland and can
      be a
      > complementary player again; his average drops back down to 11.0,
      but
      > he shoots 47.2 percent.
      >
      > Thoughts?

      There is no doubt this happens. Those charts that I put out a year
      or more ago -- those were designed to look exactly at this in a
      theoretical way because I had seen it so often empirically. Iverson
      improves his teammates pretty significantly even though he isn't
      efficient, just because he's using 30+% of his team's possessions.

      So, with the Lakers, if Phil can get them all cutting down their
      possession use to 23-27% (rather than 27-32%), they should be a
      dynamite offense.

      DeanO
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