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Re: Basketball Win Shares?

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  • Dean Oliver
    ... like this ... part without even looking at a player s numbers. My first pass got me nowhere, but using MikeT s suggestions I m going to keep trying. I know
    Message 1 of 7 , Aug 28, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer
      <igorkupfer@r...> wrote:
      >
      > ----- Original Message -----
      > From: Dean Oliver
      > To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      > Sent: Thursday, August 28, 2003 11:51 AM
      > Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Basketball Win Shares?
      >
      > <snip>
      >
      > Finding a formula for win% as a function of point differential isn't
      > hard. What MikeT did is fine. I think it's equivalent to a couple
      > of other things. The Pythagorean does about as well, but it ain't as
      > convenient. Same with the Bell Curve method. Those both say that
      > points don't have strict linear value in creating win%. That's more
      > important in leagues outside the NBA, I think.
      > I wasn't really aiming that high. I had an idea, that if an equation
      like this
      >
      > Offensive Efficiency + Defensive Efficiency = Minutes Played
      >
      > yielded meaningful results, we could get a handle on the defense
      part without even looking at a player's numbers. My first pass got me
      nowhere, but using MikeT's suggestions I'm going to keep trying. I
      know that there's a million other things that explain minutes --
      cap-induced roster moves, injuries, doghouses -- so my standard for
      "meaningful" results is pretty low. For now.

      Having ditched work a little early, gotten some sleep, I think I can
      speak. This idea is pretty interesting. MikeT mentioned Minkoff's
      stuff, which I found really interesting when I saw it 10 years ago,
      but I couldn't really figure out why. I couldn't figure out where to
      go with it or how to get whatever was interesting out of it. But I
      think you got it or at least started making me think about it.
      Statistics can explain some amount of playing time. Other
      explanations for playing time are non-statistical -- such as it's a
      bad team that just needs someone to play (which may be controlled for)
      and, what you're getting at, defense. It's got a chance. I'll be
      curious.

      DeanO
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