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More East vs. West

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  • Charles Board
    Message: 4 Date: Thu, 7 Aug 2003 17:54:16 -0400 From: igor eduardo küpfer Subject: Re: Re: East - West imbalance How do you know that
    Message 1 of 3 , Aug 9, 2003
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      Message: 4
      Date: Thu, 7 Aug 2003 17:54:16 -0400
      From: igor eduardo küpfer <igorkupfer@...>
      Subject: Re: Re: East - West imbalance




      How do you know that the worst west teams are the worst teams in the
      league? isn't it possible that their records are only worse than
      those of the east because they have to play the west juggernauts more
      often? i think you'd have to have more detailed team-by-team record
      data to make an assertion like the one in this post.


      I was looking only at interconference records. The worst teams in the West had worse records against East teams than the worst East
      teams had against Western teams.

      Isn't that exactly what you don't want to do to try to determine which are better<ed? Shouldn't we be asking how the do
      against the *same* opponent sets?

      Looking at the three sub-30 win teams in each conference:

      Vs. East
      W - Memphis 16-14 .533
      W- LA Clippers 11-19 .367
      E - Toronto 18-36 .333
      E- Miami 18-36 .333
      W - Denver 9-21 .300
      E - Cleveland 9-45 .167

      3 worst West teams against East: 36-54 .400
      3 worst East teams agains East 36-117 .235

      vs. West
      W-LA Clippers 16-36 .308
      E- Cleveland 8-20 .286
      E- Miami 7-21 .250
      W - Memphis 12-40 .231
      E- Toronto 6-22 .214
      W - Denver 8-44 .154

      3 worst West teams against West: 36-120 .231
      3 worst Eastteams against East: 21-63 .250

      Three of those four cumulative percentages are remarkably consistent,
      but the fourth shows the worst Western teams being significantly better
      against a steady diet of Eastern competition.

      Personally, I think the West is stronger both at the top AND
      the bottom.

      And we didn't even count.....Da Bulls. ;)
    • Charlie Board
      23 of the 29 teams had a better W% against the East than the West (10 of 14 Western teams and 13 of 15 Eastern teams. The 6 teams with better % against West
      Message 2 of 3 , Aug 9, 2003
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        23 of the 29 teams had a better W% against the East than the West
        (10 of 14 Western teams and 13 of 15 Eastern teams. The 6
        teams with better % against West than East were: Minn, LAL,
        Utah, Sea, NY, Clev)

        15 teams had a winning pct differential (E W% - W W%) of .100
        or more (high .303, Memphis). Only 1 had a differential
        of -.100 or less (Cleveland, -.119)

        Dividing each conference into 4 groups, based on final
        Reg Seas record and playoff tiebreakers:

        vs. East vs. West W%Diff(E-W)
        Top 3 West 73-17 .811 106-50 .679 .132
        Top 3 East 104-58 .642 43-41 .512 .130

        Next 4 West 73-47 .608 125-83 .601 .007
        Next 4 East 130-86 .602 51-61 .455 .147

        Next 4 West 68-52 .567 97-111 .466 .101
        Next 5* East 126-144 .467 55-85 .393 .074

        Bottom 3 West 36-54 .400 36-120 .231 .169
        Bottom 3 East 45-117 .278 21-63 .250 .028

        * - one of the Eastern quartiles had to have one more
        team than the West. I put it here because NY & Wash
        tied at 37-45 and playoff tiebreakers didn't apply.

        Alternatively we could have (starting at the third
        grouping):

        Next 4 West 68-52 .567 97-111 .466 .101
        Next 4 East 104-112 .481 47-65 .420 .061

        Bottom 3 West 36-54 .400 36-120 .231 .169
        Bottom 4 East 67-149 .310 29-83 .259 .051

        This might make more sense, because it includes the Bulls
        amongst the Eastern dregs where they belong.
      • igor eduardo küpfer
        ... From: Charles Board To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2003 10:02 AM Subject: [APBR_analysis] More East vs. West 3 worst
        Message 3 of 3 , Aug 9, 2003
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          ----- Original Message -----
          Sent: Saturday, August 09, 2003 10:02 AM
          Subject: [APBR_analysis] More East vs. West


          <snip>
           

          3 worst West teams against West:       36-120  .231
          3 worst Eastteams against    East:        21-63    .250

          Three of those four cumulative percentages are remarkably consistent,
          but the fourth shows the worst Western teams being significantly better
          against a steady diet of Eastern competition.

          Personally, I think the West is stronger both at the top AND
          the bottom.

          And we didn't even count.....Da Bulls.     ;)

          I agree that last season there was a marked difference between conferences, but I was taking an historical view. Over the last ten seasons, the West has generally had the teams with the best interconference record, and the worse. A comparison of the grams below will show that the distribution of winning percentages is wider for West teams than those of the East.
           


                                :           .      ..
                                :        .  :      ::    .
           West                 :   :. . :  : .: : ::   ::
                           :   .: : :: : :: : :: : ::::.:: .
                   .  . : .: . :: :.::.: :: : ::.:::::::::.:::: .
                   +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-------WinPerc
                                                .
                                        . : :   :
           East                         : : : : :.
                                :       : : : : ::
                                :: : : .: : : : :: ..
                              . :::::: :: : : : :: ::: :   .
                       .  .  .:.:::::::::.: :.: ::.::::::. :    .
                   +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-------WinPerc
                0.00      0.20      0.40      0.60      0.80      1.00

          This means that teams with extreme winning percentages generally have come from the Western Conference -- both the best teams and the worst. Western teams have had the wider spread in interconference records in 8 of the last ten seasons, as this table of standard deviations for winning percentages shows:

          Year    E     W
          1994   .16   .20
          1995   .17   .21
          1996   .19   .18
          1997   .20   .17
          1998   .11   .26
          1999   .15   .23
          2000   .15   .20
          2001   .14   .17
          2002   .08   .19
          2003   .11   .16

          Total  .16   .20

           

          ed

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